Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06TUNIS1673
2006-07-05 12:27:00
CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN
Embassy Tunis
Cable title:  

CORRUPTION IN TUNISIA PART III: POLITICAL IMPLICATIONS

Tags:  PREL ECON PGOV EFIN ETRD EINV KDEM TS 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXYZ0001
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHTU #1673/01 1861227
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 051227Z JUL 06
FM AMEMBASSY TUNIS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1191
INFO RUEHAS/AMEMBASSY ALGIERS PRIORITY 7248
RUEHRB/AMEMBASSY RABAT PRIORITY 8179
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L TUNIS 001673 

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/MAG - HARRIS
STATE PLEASE PASS USTR - BELL
USDOC FOR CLDP - TEJTEL AND ITA/MAC/ONE (NMASON)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/02/2016
TAGS: PREL, ECON, PGOV, EFIN, ETRD, EINV, KDEM, TS
SUBJECT: CORRUPTION IN TUNISIA PART III: POLITICAL
IMPLICATIONS

REF: A. TUNIS 1630
B. TUNIS 1622
C. TUNIS 1255
D. TUNIS 311
E. 05 TUNIS 2266
F. 05 TUNIS 896

Classified By: AMBASSADOR WILLIAM HUDSON FOR REASONS 1.4 (b) AND (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L TUNIS 001673

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/MAG - HARRIS
STATE PLEASE PASS USTR - BELL
USDOC FOR CLDP - TEJTEL AND ITA/MAC/ONE (NMASON)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/02/2016
TAGS: PREL, ECON, PGOV, EFIN, ETRD, EINV, KDEM, TS
SUBJECT: CORRUPTION IN TUNISIA PART III: POLITICAL
IMPLICATIONS

REF: A. TUNIS 1630
B. TUNIS 1622
C. TUNIS 1255
D. TUNIS 311
E. 05 TUNIS 2266
F. 05 TUNIS 896

Classified By: AMBASSADOR WILLIAM HUDSON FOR REASONS 1.4 (b) AND (d)

1. (C/NF) SUMMARY: This is the third of a four cable series
on corruption's impact on the Tunisian economy and political
future. Domestic frustration is growing with the rumored
vast commercial holdings of Tunisia's First Family: President
Ben Ali, wife Leila (Trabelsi) Ben Ali and their extended
clan, and more and more Tunisians are willing to openly
discuss the family's alleged corruption. However, severely
limited freedom of speech and minimal political activism have
restricted public discourse on the topic to date. Our
ability to promote freedom of expression, a cornerstone of
our Freedom Agenda for Tunisia, is directly hindered by the
fact that greater freedom of expression would likely lead to
public criticism of the Family's corruption. At the same
time, the Family's interests complicate Ben Ali's own avowed
"plan" for political reform because any viable successor or
opposition could be viewed as a threat to the family's
economic interests. Part three of this series details the
political implications of the family's alleged corruption.
END SUMMARY.

THE IMPACT
--------------

2. (C/NF) While corruption in Tunisia may be on a smaller
scale than in some developing countries, the political
relevance of the rumors is notable because corruption -- at
least as a topic of public conversation -- is a relatively
new phenomenon in Tunisia. Conspicuous consumption -- from
extravagant properties to luxury cars -- was not common in
Tunisia ten years ago. Tunisians are increasingly frustrated
with this new development and are confused about its
relevance to their daily lives. Under President Bourguiba,
Tunisians focused on achieving a good education and
comfortable lifestyle, both goals Bourguiba himself embodied.
Today, elite Tunisians bold
ly, if not publicly, denounce Ben
Ali and the Trabelsi family as uneducated and uncultured
nouveaux riches whose conspicuous consumption is an affront
to all patriotic Tunisians. Some fear that this new
phenomenon is sucking the life-blood out of Tunisia --
leading to a spiraling educational, moral, social and
economic decline. Worse, many civil society activists
speculate that corruption -- particularly that of First Lady
Leila (Trabelsi) Ben Ali and the broader Trabelsi clan -- is
the fundamental impediment to meaningful political
liberalization.

3. (C/NF) Despite this, most Tunisians seem to be focused on
their personal standard of living and are unwilling to risk
their own socio-economic status by publicly denouncing the
Ben Ali clan's rumored corruption. Unlike a generation ago,
Tunisia now has a large middle class with typical middle
class aspirations. A business contact explained that
students are more interested in their prospects for a family,
home ownership and buying a car than in being politically
active. The European Commission's Head of Delegation
believes that the average citizen is kept "happy" through
increased consumption. While average Tunisians continue to
complain about the rising cost of living and the Family's
rumored corruption, some are beginning to reflect on the
possible link between the two.

4. (C/NF) Despite this, embassy contacts do not yet believe
any opposition movements could gain significant domestic
support under the anti-corruption banner. Most dismiss the
theory that Tunisia's latent Islamist movement could obtain
widespread support by advancing an anti-corruption platform
similar to the one that led Hamas to victory in Palestinian
elections. (NOTE: It remains unclear how non-elites might
respond to this type of opposition. END NOTE.) Civil society
activists, while quick to offer examples of the Ben Ali
clan's corruption, are more likely to complain about the lack
of freedom and political space than to focus on corruption.
It remains uncommon for Tunisians to suggest that Ben Ali
should go on the basis of corruption alone or to make any

specific comment regarding the President's political future,
other than that they expect him to stay for life. Thus,
while international and domestic critics increasingly call
for political reform, few Tunisians are willing to be
politically active, and their concerns over corruption do not
appear strong enough to motivate greater involvement.

THE FUTURE
--------------

5. (C/NF) Meanwhile, the entrenched position of the President
and his family only increases the difficulties domestic and
international entities, including the USG, face in
encouraging political reform in Tunisia. As Ben Ali himself
has suggested that he will one day be a "retired" president
(Ref D),it is not overly optimistic to believe that his
glacially slow political reform "plan" may include increased
political liberties and eventually his own departure.
However, those who believe that Ben Ali is more of a
benevolent father than a corrupt dictator argue that the
Family's corruption (and particularly Leila Ben Ali's
personal influence) is the root cause of his refusal to leave
office and/or accelerate political openness. Given the
popularity of corruption as a topic of discussion in private
circles, it is extremely likely that increased freedom of
speech, one of our main Freedom Agenda goals, would spark
public discussions of corruption and the President's family.
In fact, it appears that the corruption rumors are directly
contributing to the stagnant state of the domestic press.
The prominent case of lawyer Mohamed Abbou, who was jailed
after writing about Trabelsi family influence and corruption,
shows the extent the GOT will go to prevent public criticism
of the Family's activities (Ref F). One contact explains
that Ben Ali and his family are "red lines" which Tunisians
know not to cross.

6. (C/NF) In addition, the Family's vested financial
interests mean that any presidential succession scenario
would likely require some kind of financial guarantees for
the Family that Tunisia's still-developing economy may not be
able to support or that Tunisian public opinion would reject.
During a recent meeting with Deputy Secretary Zoellick (Ref
C),a Tunisian representative of Freedom House said that for
a significant shift in the political status quo, it is
necessary that those "close to the President" be given
assurances that they would "continue to be taken care of"
following the departure of Ben Ali. He added that such an
arrangement would be a tall order for the USG diplomatically,
but that without such assurances to Ben Ali's inner circle, a
more open political system would be difficult. Some surmise
that a 2005 law regarding "the benefits for former
presidents" was crafted precisely to provide for the economic
well being of Ben Ali's immediate family (Ref E) in the event
of a peaceful transition. However, the benefits outlined in
this law would not provide nearly the standard of living to
which the President and his relatives are accustomed.

7. (C/NF) Others allege that President Ben Ali may have
manipulated state coffers to provide for his future. As the
Presidency has a separate budget account, it is possible that
this funding source could have been utilized to allow Ben Ali
to direct funds into personal accounts. Unlike some
notorious rulers, however, there is limited evidence to
support this allegation, and the President's almost
nonexistent foreign travel does not foreshadow that he is
planning a luxurious retirement in Europe or elsewhere.
However, recently some rumors have circulated that the
extended family is beginning to liquidate and consolidate its
domestic holdings and shift some assets overseas in
preparation for Ben Ali's ultimate departure or demise.
Contacts cite these rumors as evidence that the Ben Ali
regime is entering its last days and the President and his
family are looking to make off with their fortune.

8. (C/NF) There is other evidence that the Trabelsi family is
positioning itself for a future political transition.
Tunisians rarely discuss Ben Ali's political maneuvers
without mentioning Leila Ben Ali's own political power and
aspirations. Cabinet reshuffles and official appointments
are generally believed to go to personal allies of the
President, or the First Lady. The recent removal of a senior
MOI official was believed to be due to a falling out with the
President, while Foreign Minister Abdallah is rumored to been

"kicked out" of the Palace (and installed in the MFA)
following an altercation with Leila Ben Ali. The scope of
these political relationships are one way the Trabelsi clan
are believed to be securing family members' financial
well-being -- by installing enough influential GOT allies to
guarantee they will not be excluded.

9. (C/NF) COMMENT: The corruption rumors -- true or false --
are clearly working against our efforts to speed democratic
reform in Tunisia. As long as such rumors continue to
spread, it is unlikely the GOT will increase political space
that could facilitate public discourse likely to be harshly
critical of the President. Additionally, presidential
succession options are limited by the need to cover-up past
illicit activities. However, the lack of Tunisian political
activism, or even awareness, seems to be a more serious
impediment. While frustration with the First Family's
corruption may eventually lead to increased demands for
political liberalization, it does not yet appear to be
heralding the end of the Ben Ali era. END COMMENT.
HUDSON