Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06TUNIS1157
2006-05-15 13:52:00
SECRET
Embassy Tunis
Cable title:  

SCENESETTER FOR DEPUTY SECRETARY'S VISIT TO TUNISIA

Tags:  OVIP KDEM PGOV PREL TS 
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VZCZCXYZ0004
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHTU #1157/01 1351352
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
O 151352Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY TUNIS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0688
INFO RUEHAS/AMEMBASSY ALGIERS IMMEDIATE 7212
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON IMMEDIATE 1151
S E C R E T TUNIS 001157 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR D STAFF, NEA/MAG, NEA/PI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/14/2016
TAGS: OVIP KDEM PGOV PREL TS
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR DEPUTY SECRETARY'S VISIT TO TUNISIA

Classified By: DEPUTY CHIEF OF MISSION DAVID BALLARD FOR REASONS 1.4 (b
) AND (d)

S E C R E T TUNIS 001157

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR D STAFF, NEA/MAG, NEA/PI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/14/2016
TAGS: OVIP KDEM PGOV PREL TS
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR DEPUTY SECRETARY'S VISIT TO TUNISIA

Classified By: DEPUTY CHIEF OF MISSION DAVID BALLARD FOR REASONS 1.4 (b
) AND (d)


1. (C) Embassy Tunis is very pleased to welcome you to
Tunisia from May 19-20. As the highest ranking State
Department official to visit Tunis since former Secretary
Powell in December 2003, you are in an excellent position to
reinvigorate with President Ben Ali a bilateral dialogue
which focuses on finding ways to help Tunisia achieve its
potential not only in social and economic spheres, but as a
model of how democracy can work in a moderate Arab state.


2. (C) Advancing our Freedom Agenda in Tunisia has always
been complicated by the fact that the leadership can claim,
rightly, that it has pursued socio-economic policies that
have made it arguably the most progressive and developed
country in the Middle East and North Africa. Tunisia proudly
- and justifiably - calls itself "a country that works."
Despite Tunisia's relatively small economy and lack of
natural resources, the Tunisian government has proven itself
capable of providing basic education, health care, housing,
and a workable infrastructure to its population of
approximately 10 million. As a result, Tunisians are
generally moderate and desire a secular government intent on
modernizing the country and integrating it fully into the
world economy.


3. (C) There is one area in which the regime has not
progressed, however. Despite these positive parameters,
political liberties remain tightly controlled and civil
society development is stifled. With President Ben Ali and
senior officials increasingly discussing Tunisia's political
future, this is a key opportunity to reinvigorate our
bilateral human rights dialogue.


4. (C) President Ben Ali and your GOT interlocutors will seek
to focus on areas of mutual agreement, particularly
Tunisia,s moderate voice on regional issues such as
Palestine and Iraq. But they will likely anticipate your
points on democratic reform and will present their
well-practiced argument that the GOT has a plan for political
liberalization, but that rapid reform is antithetical to

security and stability. They will raise the specter of an
internal Islamist threat arising should they open the
political system too quickly. While an Islamist security
threat exists, we do not believe that there are any viable,
organized, political threats to the regime, including from
Islamists. In fact, we often make the point that it is
precisely because Tunisia is not at risk of radical Islamic
accession to power via the ballot box that it can afford to
liberalize its political system.


5. (S) POLITICAL REFORM: Although President Ben Ali has
introduced some seemingly positive political reform steps in
the past six months (pardoning some political prisoners,
lifting a form of censorship for print media, registering a
new political party),civil society and human rights groups
remain deeply cynical and continue to report many instances
of government harassment, intimidation, and limits on their
activities. (Embassy officers have personally witnessed some
of these instances.) Journalists reject the suggestion that
press censorship has ended and local media usually lack any
meaningful coverage of domestic political issues. At the
same time, in recent months, Ben Ali has given the clearest
indications yet that he is considering stepping down before
his death or incapacitation. This presents an opening for
further discussions of reform issues and lends more relevance
to our support for political reform, nascent parties and
civil society. National elections - both presidential and
legislative - will be next held in 2009.


6. (C) REGIONAL ISSUES: Tunisian officials will be eager to
highlight the GOT,s moderate voice in regional issues,
including:

- Iraq/Afghanistan/Darfur: The GOT is quietly supportive of
our efforts in Iraq, including issuing public statements in
support of the elections, and continues to maintain a
diplomatic presence in Baghdad. Tunisia has been
noncommittal about assistance to Iraq or in Darfur, while the
MFA reports limited technical assistance has been provided to
Afghanistan. Secretary Rumsfeld solicited Tunisian
contributions to Afghanistan provincial reconstruction teams
(PRT) and asked Tunisia to engage moderate Sunnis in Iraq
during meetings with GOT officials in February and April.
The GOT may be prepared to offer more concrete assistance
during your visit.

- Iran: Tunisia has good, and improving relations with Iran,
however it does not support Iranian efforts to develop
nuclear weapons.

- Israel: Tunisia's low profile relations with Israel are
also growing, including increasing numbers of Jewish pilgrims
visiting the southern city of Djerba and the GOT's hosting of
then-Israeli Foreign Minister Shalom during last November's
U.N. World Summit on the Information Society. Israel also
maintained a liaison office in Tunis for several years, but
closed it shortly after the second Intifada broke out.

- Middle East: Recent political developments in Egypt and
Palestine will be cited as evidence that U.S. efforts to spur
democracy in the region are leading to the rise of radical,
undemocratic Islamic groups.


7. (C) COUNTER-TERRORISM: Tunisian intelligence entities,
under the Ministry of Interior, claimed to have increased the
number of potential foreign fighters they have intercepted
and have contributed to the diversion of the flow of foreign
fighters to Iraq in the past year. Due to their continued
reluctance to provide concrete and specific numbers to
bolster this claim, as well as their reluctance to provide
substantive information on domestic jihadist numbers and
activities, an empirical evaluation remains elusive. Some
Tunisian media, most particularly the Arabic-language
newspaper ash-Shourouq (rumored to have close links to senior
GOT officials),glorify violence, cheerlead Iraqi insurgents
(including Zarqawi),and publish stories from Hezbollah-owned
al-Manar. We believe that allowing this kind of coverage in
what is clearly a government-controlled media environment is
counterproductive and can work to undermine our shared
anti-terrorism goals.


8. (C) ECONOMIC LIBERALIZATION: The GOT believes economic
development is the best way to counter terrorism and
extremism, and thanks to its policies, Tunisia has recorded
five-plus percent economic growth annually during the last
decade. However, significant vulnerabilities remain:
unemployment rates (officially 14 percent) remain elevated;
inflation is reducing purchasing power; and corruption is
becoming more widespread and is leading to economic
frustration. In the face of rising oil prices and the 2008
implementation of its trade agreement with the EU, Tunisia
must engage in further liberalization, particularly in
services and franchising, to spur competitiveness, investment
and job creation. Good governance and improved information
flow is fundamental to unleashing Tunisia,s potential for
job creation, enhancing confidence in a transparent business
environment, and fostering greater economic stability. While
some officials may refer optimistically to a future FTA as a
natural progression of our 2002 TIFA, Tunisia is not actively
undertaking the economic reform needed to make this a reality.
HUDSON