JAPAN'S UNSC REFORM EFFORT LOOSING STEAM?

C O N F I D E N T I A L TOKYO 000711

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/08/2021
TAGS: PREL PGOV UNSC XA JA
SUBJECT: JAPAN'S UNSC REFORM EFFORT LOOSING STEAM?


Classified By: Political Minister Counselor W. Michael Meserve.
Reasons: 1.4 (b),(d)


1. (C) Summary: Japan's Option C plan "did not fly" with its
G3 partners, MOFA's UN Policy Division Director Aikawa told
PolOffs February 7. Aikawa did not know how much longer
Japan could "paper over" its differences with the G3.
Implying that UN Security Council reform may be loosing steam
domestically, Aikawa acknowledged that while both PM Koizumi
and FM Aso continue to believe the issue is important,
neither is pressing MOFA to pursue it aggressively at this
time. Separately, Aikawa said he expected the U.S. to press
for the election of the next Secretary General in the first
half of the year, rather than at the end, as previously
expected. Japan, as a UNSC member, hopes to be consulted
early in the process, he noted, and not be subjected to a
"last minute surprise" like during the last elections. End
Summary.


2. (C) Japan's Option C plan "did not fly" with its G3
partners (India, Brazil and Germany),MOFA UN Policy Division
Director Kazutoshi Aikawa told Embassy political officers
February 7. The G3's two main concerns with Option C, he
said, were the reduction in the proposed Security Council
expansion (21 seats vice 25 in the original G4 proposal),and
the fact that the number of seats for each region had not
been pre-designated as "non-permanent" and "permanent." The
"most reluctant" of the partners, Brazil, was afraid that,
alone, it could not win two-thirds of the General Assembly
votes needed to become a permanent member. Germany feared it
would not get the one seat allotted to Europe. And India was
still insisting on veto privileges for new permanent members.
Aikawa commented that he didn't know how much longer Japan
could continue to "paper over" its differences with the G3.
It was only a matter of time before its "temporary
separation" with the G3 would lead to "divorce."


3. (C) A permanent UNSC seat may no longer be at the top of
PM Koizumi's agenda, Aikawa suggested, or that of FM Aso,
though both continue to believe the issue is important.
Referring to FM Aso as a "political type," Aikawa opined that
Aso believes the time for UNSC reform "has not yet come" and
the issue "is not worth pressing now."


4. (C) Touching on the atmospherics surrounding discussion of
UNSC reform at the recent African Union (AU) Summit in Sudan,
Aikawa commented wryly that the "Chinese were running the
show" at the convention center (built with Chinese aid).
Chinese personnel appeared to be handling everything behind
the scenes, from technical support to decoration. And even
though China, like Japan and many other countries, had been
invited as an observer, Chinese delegates had passes to
attend the meetings, while others had to "sneak in." Aikawa
stopped short of mentioning outcomes from the meeting, but
commented that Japan "needs better relations with China" if
for no other reason than to prevent the type of negative
international campaign it launched against Japan last summer
to thwart its attempts at UNSC reform.

A "Learning Experience"
--------------


5. (C) Whatever the eventual outcome of its bid for a
permanent UNSC seat, pursuing UNSC reform in concert with the
G4 has been an overall positive experience for the G4
countries, Aikawa observed. Brazil in particular has
benefited from the increased visibility it has gained as a
result of its campaign. Before the process began, Director
Aikawa suggested, not many people took the Brazilian bid
seriously, but now Brazil is a "legitimate contender." India
neither gained nor lost anything, Aikawa remarked. In fact,
he suggested, Indian efforts to get a permanent seat were
always lukewarm; even if UNSC reform does not happen until
the "75th or 100th anniversary of the UN's founding, it
probably would be OK with them," he joked. For Japan, it was
a "learning experience"; it was the first time the Japanese
government had allied with Brazil and India to pursue a
common agenda. It also was the first time the Japanese
government had inserted itself into internal African
politics, an experience he described as "painful" at times.

Next UN Secretary General
--------------

6. (C) Aikawa said he expected the United States to press for
the election of the next Secretary General in the first half
of the year, rather than at the end, as previously expected.
Japan, as a UNSC member, hopes to be consulted early in the
process, he noted, and not be subjected to a "last minute
surprise" like during the last elections. Commenting on
speculation that it was "Asia's turn" to be UNSYG, Aikawa
remarked that both ROK FM Ban Ki-moon and Thai Deputy PM and
former FM Surakiart Sathirathai appear to be running hard,
but offered that there was no front runner at the moment.
South Korea is wisely using its experience on the Security
Council during the last SYG election to push its candidate,
ROK FM Ban. The Koreans are lobbying key Security Council
members, unlike the "unsophisticated" Thai who have launched
an "ineffective marketing campaign" trying to drum up "grass
roots support" from random African member states (not on the
Security Council) for their candidate, Deputy PM Surakiart.
The Koreans also have appealed to France, selling FM Ban's
fluency in French, a pre-requisite to getting the French
vote, Aikawa said.
SCHIEFFER