Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06TOKYO698
2006-02-08 05:33:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tokyo
Cable title:  

FM ASO CHINA COMMENTS: ADVERTISEMENTS FOR HIMSELF?

Tags:  PREL PGOV CH JA 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 000698 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/07/2031
TAGS: PREL PGOV CH JA
SUBJECT: FM ASO CHINA COMMENTS: ADVERTISEMENTS FOR HIMSELF?


TOKYO 00000698 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Joe Donovan. Reasons:1.4(b/d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 000698

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/07/2031
TAGS: PREL PGOV CH JA
SUBJECT: FM ASO CHINA COMMENTS: ADVERTISEMENTS FOR HIMSELF?


TOKYO 00000698 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Joe Donovan. Reasons:1.4(b/d).


1. (C) Summary: Our contacts among Japan's China watchers
believe FM Aso's recent provocative comments on Japan-China
relations are a calculated effort by the Foreign Minister to
boost his standing in the race for the LDP presidency.
Without making such controversial statements, Aso would have
little opportunity to attract attention to himself, they
maintain. According to leading Diet members and academics,
given CCS Abe's strong lead in the public opinion polls, Aso
is probably trying to win PM Koizumi's personal support in
the election campaign by making strong statements on the
controversial Yasukuni Shrine issue. Our interlocutors note
that Aso's nationalistic comments are well received by the
LDP's increasingly conservative supporters. End Summary.

Provocative Statements
--------------


2. (C) Over the past several weeks FM Aso has made a number
of controversial statements connected to Japan's relations
with China that have provoked negative responses from
Beijing. On December 22 Aso stated that China was a "threat"
to Japan due to its growing military capability. He followed
that statement with a comment on January 29 that no foreign
country should tell the Prime Minister he cannot go to
Yasukuni Shrine, and that it would be advisable for the
Emperor also to visit the shrine. On February 4 Aso said
that as a Japanese colony Taiwan benefited from an improved
educational system. MOFA's China Division has denied to the
Embassy that such comments reflect any change in Japan's
policy toward China. Moreover, in a January 31 position
paper the cabinet declared that Japan does not recognize
China as a threat. Chief Cabinet Secretary Abe was also
quick to clarify to the press that the Foreign Minister's
comment about the Emperor visiting Yasukuni Shrine was Aso's
personal view.

Need to Attract Public Attention ...
--------------


3. (C) Our contacts on Japan-China relations uniformly
attribute FM Aso's comments to his desire to improve his
standing in the race to succeed PM Koizumi as LDP president

when he steps down in September. LDP members among the
general public as well as LDP Diet members will participate
in the party's presidential election. Keio University
Professor Tomoyuki Kojima observed to Embassy Tokyo political
officer that since PM Koizumi consistently states that
China's economic development is an opportunity for Japan, not
a threat, and since previous foreign ministers have been very
cautious in making statements concerning relations with
China, Aso's statements only make sense in the context of the
LDP presidential campaign. Such statements, Kojima said,
help Aso stand out from the other candidates, providing a
clear-cut difference between him and his rivals.


4. (C) Tokyo University Professor Akihiko Tanaka commented
to the embassy that such statements are entirely in keeping
with Aso's personality. He enjoys making provocative and
unexpected statements, Tanaka maintained, and has frequently
done so during his career as a Diet member. Tanaka believes
the series of controversial statements must be part of Aso's
calculation as to what is needed to make him an important
figure in the race to succeed Koizumi, especially given CCS
Abe's commanding lead in the public opinion polls. If Aso
merely does a good, competent job as foreign minister, Tanaka
opined, Aso will be forgotten by the public. He has a strong
incentive to attract public attention, Tanaka stated.

And the Prime Minister's Support
--------------


5. (C) LDP Diet Member Taro Kono told us that FM Aso might
be trying to win PM Koizumi's support for the LDP presidency
race by taking a strong anti-China stance, especially on
Yasukuni. Given CCS Abe's strong popularity, it would be
difficult for Aso to succeed Koizumi without the Prime
Minister's explicit backing, Kono said. Supporting the Prime
Minister on visits to Yasukuni may be one way to curry favor,

TOKYO 00000698 002.2 OF 002


he suggested. Kono said he was particularly surprised by
Aso's comments regarding the Emperor visiting Yasukuni in
that he and eight others dined with the Foreign Minister the
night before Aso's statement. At the dinner, Aso told his
dinner companions that he should give greater consideration
to his position as Foreign Minister in making comments that
concern Japan's relations with China. His statement on the
Emperor the next day can only be explained by the LDP
presidential campaign, Kono surmised.


6. (C) In a separate meeting with Embassy political
officer, LDP Diet member and former LDP Secretary General
Koichi Kato agreed that Aso's comments are due to the LDP
race, noting that Aso's statements lack balance and are far
from the official government position on the issues.
Nonetheless, Kato observed, Aso's statements have found wide
support among traditional LDP supporters. The LDP membership
is becoming increasingly conservative and nationalistic,
especially with regard to China, he said. Kato averred that
the majority of LDP voters are anti-China. Aso's comments
justifying Japan's colonialization of Taiwan would be
particularly pleasing to LDP supporters, he said. Kato also
thought that Aso was trying to win the Prime Minister's
support in the LDP race, but opined that even with Koizumi's
backing, Aso would not be elected.

Comment
--------------


7. (C) Of all the contenders, Aso has been the most vocal
in publicly stating his desire to become the next prime
minister. However, at 20 to 30 points behind CCS Abe in the
polls, Aso may feel he has to do something to shake up the
race. While his statements on the Japan-China relationship
have not followed the usual practice of Japanese foreign
ministers, they have garnered him a lot of media attention.
For his part Abe has been cautious and moderate in his public
comments, sticking to his role as the government's chief
spokesman and letting his reputation as a nationalist
hard-liner speak for itself.
SCHIEFFER