PDUSD HENRY AND JDA'S MORIYA DISCUSS CHINA

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 005709

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/02/2026
TAGS: MARR MCAP PREL CH JA
SUBJECT: PDUSD HENRY AND JDA'S MORIYA DISCUSS CHINA

Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRS, A.I. JOSEPH DONOVAN, REASONS 1.4 B/D


1. (S) SUMMARY: Japan is concerned about China's lack of
transparency in its military modernization, its campaign to
end the EU arms embargo on Beijing, and its recent efforts to
downgrade exchanges with the Japan Defense Agency (JDA),
Administrative Vice-Minister Takemasa Moriya told visiting
Principal Deputy Under-Secretary of Defense for Policy Ryan
Henry September 25. On North Korea, Moriya said it was time
for the U.S. and Japan to develop clear plans on what the
bilateral security response would be to future provocations
by North Korea. END SUMMARY.

China: Lack of Military Transparency
--------------


2. (C) JDA was grateful for the decision to consult with
Japanese counterparts before visiting China to discuss the
Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR),JDA Administrative
Vice-Minister Takemasa Moriya told visiting PDUSD for Policy
Henry in a meeting September 25. Japan shares many of the
same concerns about China held by the U.S., he said. JDA
would be "very curious" to hear a read-out later on how PDUSD
Henry's visit to China is received, he said.


3. (C) The lack of transparency in China's military build-up,
particularly in its air and maritime capabilities, was a
serious concern for Japan, said Moriya. He had pressed PLA
Chief of Staff General Xiong Guangkai on the transparency
issue in three meetings, he said, but got little response.
Xiong finally acknowledged in their last meeting that China
would not be transparent while it was still in the process of
developing its military capabilities, said Moriya.
Transparency was a "luxury" only rich countries like the U.S.
and Japan could afford, Xiong had said.


4. (C) There were other indicators of a lack of military
transparency by China, said Moriya. Visiting PLA general
officers had ignored his request to explain the 2004
incursion of a Han-class PLAN submarine into Japanese
territorial waters, and what measures had been taken to
prevent a recurrence, he said. The PRC's only response was
to say the incident had been "a mistake", he said. When PLA
visitors come to Japan, added Moriya, JDA always accommodates
their requests to see Self-Defense Force (SDF) facilities.
When JDA officials visit China, however, there was no such
reciprocity, he said.


5. (C) PDUSD Henry replied that China's lack of transparency
on its military modernization likely stemmed both from a
desire not to reveal weaknesses, and a calculation that
opacity was a source of strength. The U.S. was concerned,
however, that China's lack of transparency, and the PLA's
lack of interaction with foreign military counterparts, could
lead to miscalculation on the part of the PRC. There was a
risk that the Chinese might mistakenly assume they could
leverage the U.S., or that the U.S. has vulnerabilities that
China could exploit.


6. (C) This concern, said PDUSD Henry, had led the U.S.
government to invite PLA representatives to observe the
recent three-carrier exercise Valiant Shield off Guam, and
PLA vessels to join the U.S. Navy in a search-and-rescue
exercise off Hawaii and San Diego. Establishing
international standards on search-and-rescue with the Chinese
military was a basic first step, he explained; broader
mil-mil interaction could then follow.

EU Arms Embargo Worries
--------------


7. (C) Growing Chinese pressure on the EU to lift its arms
embargo on Beijing was also a cause of concern for Japan,
said Moriya. He had returned recently from a visit to France
with the conclusion that Europeans "do not understand Asia
very well." As China's international profile rises, European
countries appear increasingly susceptible to pressure to drop
the arms export ban because of economic opportunities in
China, he said. Beijing was dispatching three delegations a
year to European capitals to lobby on this point, he said.

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If the EU drops its arms embargo, predicted Moriya, Russia is
likely to remove any and all constraints it places on arms
sales to China in order to compete. Absent European
restrictions, Russia may overcome their practice of
refraining from selling China certain sensitive military
technologies "because they are neighboring countries."


8. (C) Moriya voiced frustration with a recent PLA decision
to downgrade its dialogue with JDA. For some years, the JDA
Administrative Vice-Minister had held an occasional dialogue
with the Deputy Chief of Staff of the PLA, he said.
Recently, the PLA had indicated they intended to downgrade
the rank of Moriya's Chinese counterpart to the Assistant
Chief of Staff level. This was unacceptable to JDA. Given
the importance of rank in China, said Moriya, a lower level
dialogue would make the talks less substantive.

Responding to North Korea's next provocation
--------------


9. (S) Turning to North Korea, Moriya emphasized that
Pyongyang needed to be convinced that any future provocations
would lead to "a sufficiently harsh response." It was time
for the U.S. and Japan to plan out what the bilateral
security response would be to future North Korean actions,
such as a nuclear test or more missile launches. North Korea
is already well aware of the U.S. military's capability to
conduct punitive strikes on other countries, said PDUSD
Henry. It was important for the U.S. and Japan to go beyond
that to show Pyongyang that the threat posed by their
ballistic missiles could be neutralized, by enhancing
combined U.S. and Japan missile defense capabilities.


10. (U) PDUSD Henry has cleared this message.
DONOVAN