Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06TOKYO3508
2006-06-23 07:35:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tokyo
Cable title:  

164TH DIET SESSION CONCLUDES WITH MUCH UNDONE

Tags:  PGOV ECON MARR JA 
pdf how-to read a cable
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FM AMEMBASSY TOKYO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3626
INFO RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUYNAAC/COMNAVFORJAPAN YOKOSUKA JA PRIORITY
RHMFISS/COMUSJAPAN YOKOTA AB JA PRIORITY
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEATRS/TREASURY DEPT WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/WHITE HOUSE WASHDC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L TOKYO 003508 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/20/2016
TAGS: PGOV ECON MARR JA
SUBJECT: 164TH DIET SESSION CONCLUDES WITH MUCH UNDONE

REF: A. TOKYO 3481


B. TOKYO 3078

C. TOKYO 3210

Classified By: Ambassador J. Thomas Schieffer. Reasons 1.4 (b/d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L TOKYO 003508

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/20/2016
TAGS: PGOV ECON MARR JA
SUBJECT: 164TH DIET SESSION CONCLUDES WITH MUCH UNDONE

REF: A. TOKYO 3481


B. TOKYO 3078

C. TOKYO 3210

Classified By: Ambassador J. Thomas Schieffer. Reasons 1.4 (b/d).


1. (SBU) Summary. The 164th Diet session closed on June 18,
leaving many in Tokyo unsatisfied. Scandals, a change in the
opposition's Diet management style and a Prime Minister
determined to finish the session on time left many
high-profile bills related to history and national identity
in the pipeline. Prime Minister Koizumi's decision to close
the session after 150 days surprised many in Nagatacho, and
stirred up media criticism that the LDP-Komeito ruling
coalition was putting party interests over national ones.
Koizumi's eagerness to turn to foreign policy issues and
desire to avoid contentious question and answer sessions were
offered by Tokyo Embassy contacts as possible reasons for the
decision not to extend the session. This message recaps the
status of security and foreign policy-related bills
considered in this Diet session. Ref A reports on
economy-related bills, involving administrative reform, tax
reform and medical reform. End Summary.

Grade: Okay But Not Great
--------------


2. (SBU) As the 164th Diet session drew to a close on June
18, many in Tokyo remained unsatisfied. Expectations had
been high earlier in the year that the unprecedented super
majority enjoyed by the ruling coalition would translate into
a particularly productive Diet session. However, the
eye-catching, ambitious docket presented by the coalition at
the beginning of the session in January became victim to
scandals, coalition reluctance to ram through bills and a
distracted Prime Minister. This was Prime Minister Koizumi's
last Diet session, his last chance to cement his reforms, and
his last salvo against the "powers of resistance." While he
did pass his centerpiece package of administrative reforms,
other contentious bills related to history and national
identity were left for the future.


3. (SBU) Numerous scandals plagued both the Liberal
Democratic Party (LDP) and opposition Democratic Party of

Japan (DPJ) and slowed Diet business for over a month early
in the year. DPJ President Seiji Maehara's resignation in
late March and the subsequent election of Ichiro Ozawa to
succeed Maehara changed the ground rules for
coalition-opposition discussion. Suddenly, the DPJ was
unwilling to coordinate on issues like the constitutional
referendum and education bills, leaving the coalition to
remake its Diet management strategy. Left with the choice of
unilaterally ramming through highly contentious bills -- and
leaving itself open to blame if the bills prove unsuccessful
-- or shelving them, the coalition opted for putting them
off.

Why No Extension?
--------------


4. (SBU) With the media complaining that the coalition
seemed to be putting party interests over national ones, why
did the coalition not resort to the tried and true tactic of
Diet extension? Many bureaucrats and politicians claim that
Koizumi already had his sights set on foreign policy
initiatives for the summer. He wanted to ensure that topics
such as beef that might come up during his summit with
President Bush did not get raised in the Diet. Others
pointed to the G-8 summit in July.


5. (C) Koizumi's refusal to consider a Diet extension has
flummoxed some senior members of his own LDP. Social
security reform, a bill to facilitate organ transplants, and
a bill to improve Japan's birthrate (all important social
issues) were left in the pipeline. Asked if Koizumi is
troubled that he did not get many high-profile bills passed,
Nikkei political reporter Hiroaki Ito told us in mid-June
that Koizumi is simply looking forward to the end of the Diet
session. Former Prime Minister Mori relayed to Embassy
Tokyo's Political Minister that Koizumi would rather end the
Diet session on schedule than have to go through the very
contentious question and answer sessions for the other bills.
Ito agreed that Koizumi was satisfied with passing the
administrative reform bill and was not wedded to passing the
others.

Status of Bills
--------------


6. (C) The ruling coalition passed 84 of the 94 bills that
were considered this session. Compared to years past -- 84
percent passed last year before the lower house dissolution,
95 percent in 2004 and 98 percent in 2003 -- the coalition
has done okay, but not as well as would be expected with the
unprecedented ruling coalition super majority in the Lower
House. Economy-related bills, including administrative
reform, tax reform and medical reform are discussed in Ref A.

---North Korea Human Rights Bill: Passed. This joint
coalition-opposition bill provides financial and other
assistance to aid North Korean refugees. The bill also
contains a clause calling for financial sanctions on
Pyongyang in the event of its failure to resolve the
abduction issue.

--Cancer Bill: Passed. The bill focuses on improving the
medical system and care for cancer patients. An unexpected
addition to the docket, the coalition and opposition
cooperated to introduce and pass the bill. The bill needed
only one week to pass both Houses, in part because DPJ Upper
House member Takashi Yamamoto, a cancer patient himself,
pushed hard for the bill.

---Law to prevent government office-led bid rigging: Carried
over to the fall. Lower House Committee on Economy, Trade
and Industry will discuss it over the recess. This would
strengthen and expand penalties on public servants who are
directly involved in bid rigging.

---Conspiracy law (Ref B): Carried over to the fall (the
only one of three bills carried over from 2005 that was not
passed) by the Lower House Judicial Affairs Committee. A
Nikkei reporter tells us that the Conspiracy Law (actually an
amendment to the Anti-Organized Crime Law) will likely top
the extraordinary Diet session's agenda this fall. The Law
would bring Japan into compliance with the 2000 UN Convention
Against Transnational Organized Crime and enable Japan to
join other countries in cracking down on cross-border crimes
such as terrorism and drug and human trafficking.

---Bill to upgrade the JDA to a ministry: Carried over to
the fall. This bill would enable the JDA, currently an
external organ of the Cabinet Office, to establish ordinances
and submit proposals at Cabinet meetings. Komeito had been
reluctant to support the bill because of the scandal-ridden
DFAA but a Komeito contact assures us that, with the
punishment of DFAA and other JDA officials, Komeito is fully
behind the bill. The DPJ supports the concept of an upgrade
but would prefer more discussion. The coalition's submission
of the bill on June 9 is the closest the concept has come to
reality.

---Basic Education Law Amendment: Carried over by the Lower
House Special Committee on the Basic Education Law.
Amendment would incorporate "feeling of love toward the
country" as an educational ideal.

---Referendum bill: Carried over by the Lower House Special
Research Committee on the Constitution. The legislation
would regulate procedures for national referendum for
constitutional revisions. The coalition is still ironing out
the details on issues such as the minimum voting age and the
role of the media.

---Geospatial Information Systems Bill: (Ref C) Carried over
by the Lower House Cabinet Committee. The bill would
establish support for a national database for satellite
remote sensing data to be used for civil purposes and also
support for the promotion of satellite based position,
navigation and timing systems. The bill has wide support and
is expected to pass in the fall.

---Bills to promote USFJ realignment: Cabinet approved the
bill in May, submission likely in the fall. A set of bills
that would provide financial assistance to local governments
that will shoulder a greater burden due to the realignment.

---Bill to Lift Restrictions on "Peaceful Use of Space":
(Ref C) Not submitted this session. The bill, initiated by
the LDP, would enable Japan to build higher resolution
E
satellites and to use communication satellites for defensive
purposes. Political and bureaucratic resistance to the bill
is strong and its submission to the fall session remains
questionable.

---Imperial House Law amendment: Not submitted this session.
Bill would allow a ruling empress or an emperor of
matrilineal descent. Shelved indefinitely in response to
Princess Kiko's announcement in February that she is
expecting a child.

Comment
--------------


7. (C) It was clear that pundits and political analysts were
keeping one eye on the conclusion of the Diet session but
that their minds were already on the LDP presidential
election. When asked about domestic politics, most contacts
immediately launched into an analysis of the upcoming LDP
presidential election. Gaming out the strategies for
possible contenders and second-guessing the loyalties of the
LDP freshmen, the election quickly eclipsed the Diet session
as the most high-profile political issue of the year so far.


8. (C) Although criticism that the coalition left too many
bills unattended is strong, we expect the LDP presidential
election to prove distracting enough to keep any
dissatisfaction on the public's part to a minimum before the
extraordinary Diet session opens in the fall. The
LDP-Komeito coalition will remain open to negotiation with
the DPJ on a variety of issues, but we expect the DPJ to
adopt a confrontational attitude, which will make compromise
difficult on issues of interest to the United States, such as
the Conspiracy Law and bills on realignment.
SCHIEFFER