THE AMBASSADOR'S LUNCH WITH ADMINISTRATIVE VICE

S E C R E T TOKYO 002940

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: REUNIFICATION OF THE KOREAN PENINSULA
TAGS: PREL ECON MARR KUNR AF IR IZ IN KN KS CH JA
SUBJECT: THE AMBASSADOR'S LUNCH WITH ADMINISTRATIVE VICE
MINISTER YACHI

REF: STATE 83706

Classified By: Ambassador J. Thomas Schieffer. Reasons 1.4 (b/d).


1. (S) During a May 26 meeting, Administrative Vice Foreign
Minister Shotaro Yachi expressed deep appreciation for the
Ambassador's efforts on the abduction issue. In a tour
d'horizon, the Ambassador and Yachi discussed the upcoming
summit, regional issues, realignment and beef. Foreign
Minister Aso's meetings in Qatar with Chinese Minister Li and
South Korean Minister Ban went very well. China and South
Korea are hoping that Koizumi's successor refrains from
visiting Yasukuni Shrine, but Yachi fears that Koizumi will
visit the Shrine on August 15 this year. Turning to UNSC
reform, Yachi requested a response to Japan's "Model D"
proposal as soon as possible. The Ambassador delivered our
demarche on the Kandahar-Herat Road (reftel) and Yachi agreed
to consider various options. The Ambassador briefed Yachi on
North Korea and Yachi requested a follow-up intelligence
briefing. On beef, Japan is determined to have, at least, a
decision to reopen the market before the summit. On Iraq,
Yachi said he does not want Japan to disappear from the list
of cooperative countries. Japan wants to stand with the
United States, even if it is in a limited capacity. End
Summary.


2. (C) Over lunch with the Ambassador on May 26,
Administrative Vice Foreign Minister Shotaro Yachi expressed
deep appreciation for the Ambassador's visit to Niigata and
for facilitating the meeting between the President and Sakie
Yokota, the mother of a Japanese citizen abducted by North
Korea. Yokota is a powerful advocate, the Ambassador
responded, and her story genuinely touched the President.
Since his visit to Niigata, every time he has appeared before
a Japanese audience, someone has approached him and thanked
him for raising the profile of the abductions, the Ambassador
commented.

Summit
--------------


3. (C) The Ambassador informed Yachi that over dinner on May
23, he told Prime Minister Koizumi that lunch was part of the
package and urged him to participate. Koizumi agreed to join
the lunch, but said he did not want to deliver a speech
before Congress. Yachi thanked the Ambassador for his advice
about a visit to Walter Reed hospital. Yachi said the Prime
Minister was very enthusiastic about the idea. The
Ambassador encouraged him to keep the idea quiet. The
hospital visit will be emotionally tough but Americans and
the troops will be very appreciative.


4. (C) Koizumi would like to deliver a speech at the state
dinner and is writing almost the entire speech by himself,
Yachi stated. He wants to convey his appreciation for the
President's leadership and friendship. Koizumi shared the
key elements with the Foreign Ministry and Yachi predicted it
would be a moving presentation. Koizumi does not like public
speaking. Last year, Koizumi agreed to speak at the UN
General Assembly but ordered the Foreign Ministry to keep his
speech as short as possible. Koizumi is not an eloquent
speaker and may be a little shy, Yachi commented. Surprised,
the Ambassador pointed out that Koizumi is a very effective
public speaker during campaigns. Yachi agreed, but also
relayed Koizumi's reluctance to have even phone conversations
with his counterparts. He is never enthusiastic about the
calls, but once he gets on the phone he is a good
communicator, Yachi affirmed.

China and Korea
--------------


5. (C) Yachi shared that Foreign Minister Taro Aso's
meetings in Qatar with the Chinese Minister Li Zhaoxing and
South Korean Minister Ban Ki-Moon went very well. Yachi had
seen the official readouts and agreed with the media's
interpretation that the Aso-Li meeting had been much "warmer"
than Aso's meeting with Ban. Yachi suspected Li was actively
being nice to Aso in case Aso became prime minister later
this year. For his part, Aso made it a point to say he would
decide whether or not to visit Yasukuni Shrine based on his

own beliefs and official position. Finally, Yachi contended,
the Chinese seem to understand Aso's subtle message.


6. (C) Yachi visited China and South Korea three weeks ago
and stated that both countries are looking to the
post-Koizumi era. They are trying to avoid a visit to
Yasukuni Shrine by Koizumi's successor. It is quite obvious
that China has embarked on a "peace initiative," and is being
especially careful not to criticize possible prime
ministerial contenders. Both China and South Korea have told
Yachi that they do not need a public promise that Koizumi's
successor will not visit Yasukuni, they just want to ensure
that the successor does not visit.


7. (C) Asked if he thought Koizumi would visit the Shrine on
August 15 this year, Yachi replied, "I'm afraid so." Yachi
has already warned his Chinese counterparts that an August 15
visit is a possibility. Minister Li is considering a visit
to Japan before August, which would provide an opportunity
for him to exchange views with Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo
Abe. Yachi is urging Li to visit, and has encouraged his
counterparts to tone down their Yasukuni rhetoric and to
avoid publicly criticizing prime ministerial contenders
publicly. Yachi joked that his Chinese counterparts asked
him to tell Abe to be careful of his "legs" and to warn Aso
to watch his "tongue and legs," referring to his slips of the
tongue and his visits to Yasukuni, respectively. (Comment:
It appears as if the beginnings of a thaw in Sino-Japanese
relations is occurring. Both sides seem to be staking out
different positions in a post-Koizumi world than they have
occupied in the past.)

Talks with South Korea
--------------


8. (C) Japan and South Korea have scheduled a round of talks
on June 12-13 to discuss their exclusive economic zones and
maritime surveys. The Blue House is maintaining a very tough
position but the Korean diplomatic service is more
accommodating. Despite taking a harsh position in public,
South Korean diplomats are willing to work with Japan at the
negotiating table, Yachi said. Last month, both sides
reached an agreement on how to proceed, but they could not
agree on how to present their positions to the public.


9. (C) Referring to the heightened bilateral tensions in
April, Yachi said the Koreans had decided to take into port
any Japanese ships that approached the disputed area. It was
an "incredible psychology" that the Koreans thought their
national destiny depended on those tiny islands. It made no
sense, Yachi insisted, because the UN Convention on the Law
of the Sea subcommittee that would have considered the case
in June requires a consensus decision and there is one
Japanese member. Still, Japan would have had a weak case
because it had no data with which to contest South Korea's
claims. The Ambassador complimented Yachi on helping to
defuse the situation and commented again that it would be a
shame if two strong American allies came to blows over such
an issue.

UNSC Reform
--------------


10. (C) In his meeting with Secretary Rice, Aso previewed
Japan's "Model D" formula for UNSC reform. Yachi requested a
response as soon as possible. Deputy Vice Foreign Minister
Masaharu Kono will travel to the United States on June 16 and
is hoping to meet with Undersecretary Burns to discuss the
idea. Japan would like a concrete formula in place before
the President and Prime Minister meet in late June. The
Ambassador promised to convey the request, and assured Yachi
that the United States fully supports Japan in its quest for
a permanent seat.

Global Issues
--------------


11. (C) During a recent visit to the Czech Republic, Ukraine
and Poland, Yachi was surprised at their dedication to the
rule of law and democracy. Describing himself as
"sympathetic to their cause," Yachi said that Japan is hoping

to become more involved in the region and encouraged the
United States and the European Union (EU) to follow suit.
Japan is interested in joining various regional conferences,
including the Vilnius Conference, the Community for
Democratic Choice and the Black Sea Conference. Japan will
host a Central Asia plus 1 conference for foreign ministers
next month in Tokyo.

Kandahar-Herat and Aceh Roads
--------------


12. (S) The Ambassador delivered our demarche on the
Kandahar-Herat Road (reftel),stressing that time is of
essence in completing the road. He asked Yachi to consider
alternatives to restarting construction, including
contracting the job to non-Japanese organizations like the
Army Corps of Engineers. The Ambassador assured Yachi that
we are determined that Japan get full credit for the road,
but reiterated the urgency of the situation. Yachi agreed to
consider various options.


13. (C) The Ambassador also raised the Aceh Road between
Calang to Meulaboh, informing Yachi about the 40-km stretch
where Japan and the United States risk duplicating efforts by
building parallel roads. He urged Japan to consider working
with the United States to build one road together. Yachi,
surprised, wholeheartedly agreed that we should avoid wasting
time and money. He promised to follow up on it.

North Korea
--------------


14. (S) The U.S. intelligence community is split on whether
North Korea will launch a Taepodong '2 missile, the
Ambassador stated. It is possible that North Korea could
launch a missile within the week. The United States is
monitoring the situation closely and is regularly sharing
information with Japan. Nevertheless, the Ambassador pushed
Yachi to coordinate a unified response in case North Korea
does launch a missile. He raised a second facility of
concern, further South, where we have detected activity that
might involve Nodong or Scud missiles. The Ambassador
invited Yachi to call him if he has questions, and offered to
arrange an intelligence briefing if he so desired. Yachi
said he would like to receive a briefing.

Beef
--------------


15. (C) The Japanese government is very close to an
agreement on beef, Yachi assured the Ambassador. Before the
summit in Washington, Japan is determined to have, at least,
a decision to reopen the market. Yachi predicted that the
market would reopen in July. Describing it as a constant
source of irritation, the Ambassador pressed for resolution
as soon as possible. Yachi agreed, adding that Japan does
not want the beef issue to mar the summit. Yachi explained
that there would be Risk Communications at 10 locations in
Japan between June 1-14, another round of bilateral
coordination, an audit of the approved plans and, finally,
the resumption of beef imports from facilities that pass the
audit. The Ambassador offered to talk with Agriculture
Minister Jiro Kawasaki if it would help move the process
along. Yachi promised to alert the Ambassador to any
possible stumbling blocks that would inhibit a solution
before the June summit.

Iran
--------------


16. (C) The Ambassador raised Iran and thanked Japan for its
support. Acknowledging that it is a sensitive issue, the
Ambassador stressed the importance of speaking with one
voice. Yachi assured the Ambassador that there is no
substantial difference between the Japanese and U.S.
positions. The United States might want to move a little
faster on the issue than Japan does, but Japan is in synch
with our opinion.


17. (C) Yachi thanked the Ambassador for U.S. support in
trying to include Japan in the EU3 plus 3 group. His EU

interlocutors see no problem with Japan's participation, but
China is opposed to it, Yachi complained. The Chinese claim
that they are not against Japan's participation in principle,
but worry that if Japan is allowed to join the EU3 plus 3
group, it would make it harder to deny other countries entry
into other exclusive discussions such as the Six-Party Talks.

Kitty Hawk and DPRI
--------------


18. (C) On Kitty Hawk replacement, the Ambassador warned
that we are running out of time to extract an agreement from
Yokosuka Mayor Kabaya. Yachi agreed and said he would pass
the message. On the Cabinet decision on realignment, Yachi
expressed some concern. There have been no new developments,
but Okinawa Governor Inamine is trying to backtrack from his
agreements. The Ambassador relayed that both Defense Chief
Nukaga and Prime Minister Koizumi assured him that they will
secure a Cabinet agreement and Yachi said he would keep
pushing the issue.

India
--------------


19. (C) The Ambassador noted that Assistant Secretary for
South Asia Boucher would be in Tokyo the following week and
Yachi asked to meet with him. Yachi was scheduled to brief
Koizumi and Abe on Japan's relations with India and hoped to
see A/S Boucher before his briefing. Turning to the U.S. -
India Civil Nuclear Cooperation Initiative, Yachi asked for
understanding. Japan is burdened by two considerations: the
strategic importance of India and Japan's non-proliferation
principles. The non-proliferation angle is making it
difficult for Japan to come out and directly support the
initiative. In fact, even Koizumi would find it difficult to
support the issue during his meeting with the President.


20. (C) The Ambassador asked Yachi to consider greater
cooperation with India, in a multilateral context. The
United States, Japan, Australia and India are big, regional
democracies and might benefit from greater coordination.
Yachi noted that Abe is supportive of that idea and suggested
we look into organizing a foreign minister meeting among the
four countries before bumping it up to higher levels. Yachi
said he believed his government would be "very enthusiastic"
about greater cooperation between the four countries. Both
Yachi and the Ambassador agreed to convey the idea to the
relevant officials.

Iraq
--------------


21. (C) Yachi welcomed the formation of the new Iraqi
government. Japan is still coordinating with the United
Kingdom and Australia on timing for withdrawal but is
determined to avoid the image of "running away." If the
situation is stable, Japan is interested in removing its
ground forces but plans to provide more air support. Even if
Japan withdraws its ground forces, it hopes to keep an
individual officer in the region, possibly to act as an
advisor to a PRT. The officer would be stationed in Kuwait
but would take "long trips" in Iraq; he would spend two
months in Iraq and two weeks in Kuwait, Yachi suggested.
Frankly speaking, Yachi said he does not want Japan to
disappear from the list of cooperative countries. Japan
wants to stand with the United States, even if it is in a
limited capacity.

East Asia Summit
--------------


22. (C) Yachi asked if the United States would consider
joining the East Asia Summit (EAS) as an observer. The
Ambassador shared the U.S. concerns that certain countries
were interested in excluding the United States from the EAS,
and that the EAS could detract from APEC. Yachi expressed
understanding but said that even if Malaysia or China tried
to keep the United States out, we still had friends in
Australia, Japan and India. Yachi said he had been invited
to visit Washington, DC from July 12-15 by Deputy National
Security Advisor Crouch and hoped to raise many of these

issues with U/S Burns during his stay.
SCHIEFFER