Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06TOKYO2664
2006-05-15 09:15:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tokyo
Cable title:  

U.S.-JAPAN-ROK POLICY PLANNING TRILATERAL, SESSION

Tags:  PREL APEC ARF MARR CH KS JA 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 TOKYO 002664 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/15/2031
TAGS: PREL APEC ARF MARR CH KS JA
SUBJECT: U.S.-JAPAN-ROK POLICY PLANNING TRILATERAL, SESSION
2: THE CONTINUING EMERGENCE OF CHINA

REF: A. TOKYO 2654

B. TOKYO 2663

TOKYO 00002664 001.2 OF 004


Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i., Joe Donovan. Reasons:1.4(b/d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 TOKYO 002664

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/15/2031
TAGS: PREL APEC ARF MARR CH KS JA
SUBJECT: U.S.-JAPAN-ROK POLICY PLANNING TRILATERAL, SESSION
2: THE CONTINUING EMERGENCE OF CHINA

REF: A. TOKYO 2654

B. TOKYO 2663

TOKYO 00002664 001.2 OF 004


Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i., Joe Donovan. Reasons:1.4(b/d).


1. (C) Summary: In Session 2 of the U.S.-Japan-ROK
trilateral policy planning talks on May 12, S/P Director
Stephen D. Krasner, Japanese Deputy Vice-Minister for Foreign
Policy Masaharu Kohno and Korean Deputy Minister for Policy
Planning and International Organizations Park In-Kook
outlined their respective countries' policies toward China's
continuing emergence.

-- All three delegations saw opportunities and challenges
ahead;

-- Kohno expressed concern over China's domestic instability
and rapid military build up, particularly its development of
naval forces;

-- Park wondered whether China would choose a democratic or
authoritarian model after it reached an appropriate level of
economic development;

-- Krasner emphasized the importance of the PRC becoming a
responsible stakeholder in the international system and
China's domestic transition to a society based on the rule of
law;

-- Krasner expressed U.S. concern over the trajectory of
regional architecture;

-- Kohno asserted that Japan had no intention of excluding
the United States from Asian organizations and said Japan
would be happy if the U.S. participated in existing pan-Asian
groups;

-- Park said Asia needed to find the right balance between
its traditional reliance on the United States and the need to
promote Asian regional integration;

-- The U.S. and Japanese delegations noted developments in
the U.S.-Japan alliance, discussed Chinese views of the
alliance, and encouraged the ROK to recognize the benefits of
enhanced U.S.-Japan defense relations.

End Summary.

Japan's Views on China
--------------


2. (C) Japan's Deputy Vice Minister Masaharu Kohno began
the discussion on China by highlighting the PRC's focus on

economic growth and regional stability. While successful in
achieving rapid economic growth, Chinese authorities have
been less successful in dealing with the increasing number of
violent domestic protests, corruption, the wealth gap,
environmental problems, energy problems and higher
educational costs. Japan is concerned that growing domestic
dissatisfaction may negatively impact Japanese economic
interests in China, including the more than 100,000 Japanese
living in the PRC. Japanese concerns about the lack of
transparency in China's rapid military buildup is focused on
increased blue-water naval capabilities and potential threats
to Japanese sea-lanes. Japan is also concerned about China's
growing political and economic influence in the Asian region.


3. (C) Underscoring that China and Japan hold similar views
of their bilateral relationship, Kohno noted that both
countries want to improve the relationship, see no
possibility for compromise on history issues, and seek to
increase people-to-people exchanges and economic relations.
Japan is working to expand people-to-people exchanges,
particularly among Chinese youth, to increase China's
understanding of and familiarity with Japan. Kohno observed
that Japan supported PRC participation in Asian regional
groupings as a means of influencing China and thus promoting
the Japanese goal of a stable and democratic China.

Korean Views on China
--------------


4. (C) Korean Deputy Minister for Policy Planning and

TOKYO 00002664 002.3 OF 004


International Organizations Park In-Kook noted the growth in
Korea-China economic relations since the establishment of
diplomatic relations in 1992. China has become Korea's top
trading partner and number one destination of Korean foreign
investment. Over 3.5 million Koreans visited the PRC in
2005, and more than 100,000 Korean students are studying in
China. Beijing has played a useful role in multilateral
organizations. China is still in a "learning phase" with
respect to its WTO obligations, but Beijing has been
particularly helpful in hosting the Six-Party Talks and its
participation in APEC, EAS, and ASEAN Plus 3 has been
constructive. Despite Beijing's claims to the contrary,
Seoul believes the PRC does have substantial influence on
North Korea's foreign policy. Fully one-third of China's
total foreign aid budget goes to North Korea, and Kim Jong-Il
has made four visits to China since 2000, highlighting his
interest in economic reform and China's own experiences.


5. (C) Looking over the next 30 to 40 years, Park cited the
need to consider the level of economic development China
would attain before its economic growth reached a plateau.
What kind of society would China then become, he asked.
Would it follow the Japan-ROK model of transition to
democracy or would it seek to emulate Singapore's combination
of a market economy but authoritarian political system? Even
if China adopted a democratic model, how would the Chinese
tendency toward a China-centric worldview affect its foreign
policy?

U.S. Views on China
--------------


6. (C) S/P Director Krasner pointed out that as China
developed it would need to transition to a society based on
the rule of law. The United States has pressed China to
become a "responsible stakeholder" in the international
system, noting that as China benefits from international
regimes, it is important for the PRC to honor regime rules.
Failing to do so will damage the system and, because China
benefits from the system, thereby also hurt China's own
interests. China's efforts to obtain energy security by
investing in badly governed, unstable countries is one
example of how China's behavior could ultimately harm Chinese
interests -- as the PRC is ultimately a beneficiary of a
stable global energy market. The United States does not seek
to "contain" China or balance against it in the traditional
fashion of 19th century great power politics. Rather, the
United States is especially concerned about difficulties that
might arise from a failed or a badly governed China. China
should share this interest. Moreover, domestic instability
in China itself may increase nationalist sentiment, leading
to trouble over China's relations with Taiwan. The United
States is pressing both China and Taiwan to maintain the
status quo, S/P Director Krasner said.

China in the International System
--------------


7. (C) Nobukatsu Kanehara of Japan's Embassy in Washington
agreed that China, along with all Asian countries, should be
a responsible stakeholder in the international system and
suggested that China needed help in understanding what that
meant for Chinese foreign policy. He expressed concern that
China's "rising power mentality" and its traditional tendency
over thousands of years to view relationships hierarchically,
would keep the PRC from adopting a global perspective. S/P
Director Krasner observed that China was experiencing a
period of competing values and opined that its choices would
not be constrained by history. Rather the PRC would adopt
policies that benefited Chinese interests. Chinese leaders
would eventually determine that a society based on the rule
of law is in China's interests, he averred. S/P Member Evan
Feigenbaum warned against generalizing from Chinese history
or concluding that its interests were fixed. Thirty years
ago, China promoted revolution, proletarian solidarity and
guerrilla struggle. No longer. Likewise, a country that
once did almost no trade does not have the same interests as
when it is the world's third or fourth largest trading power.
The United States, Japan and Korea needed to work together
to encourage China to exercise its growing capacity to
support the international system.


8. (C) Kohno acknowledged that Beijing would have

TOKYO 00002664 003.2 OF 004


stakeholder interests as long as it continued its policy of
increasing incomes through rapid economic growth, but
wondered how China's behavior might change once it reached an
acceptable level of economic development and adopted a new
set of policies. Noting that maintaining social stability in
order to sustain economic growth provided the current
rationale for retaining the communist party, Kohno asked
rhetorically how long the current situation would continue.
Wondering whether the Singapore model would be adaptable to
such a large country, Kohno advised paying close attention to
CCP leadership interests over the mid-term.


9. (C) Park observed that Chinese leaders were greatly
self-confident because of their achievements over the past
thirty years. However, they also suffered from a persecution
complex that led to such PRC efforts as attempts to secure
China's own access to energy and was responsible for China's
sensitivity over sovereignty rights, particularly with
respect to Taiwan. Park urged continued dialogue with the
PRC.

China, the United States and Asian Architecture
-------------- --


10. (C) Turning to recent developments in Asian regional
groupings, Krasner said the United States is concerned that
Asian initiatives to accommodate China may inadvertently
stumble into a regional architectural structure that excludes
the United States. Deputy Minister Park observed that the
recent global trend toward regional integration meant that
Asian countries needed their own regional groupings. The
challenge, he suggested, is to harmonize Asia's need for
integration with the region's traditional reliance on the
strong role played by the United States.


11. (C) DVM Kohno noted that participation in regional
organizations provided China the opportunity of demonstrating
its acceptance of a stakeholder role. He stressed that Japan
had no intention of excluding the United States from Asian
organizations and noted Japan's interest in expanding
membership in Asian groupings to include India, Australia,
Mongolia and other countries. Kohno emphasized the
importance of cooperation and coordination among regional
organizations.


12. (C) Sketching out a conceptual framework, S/P Director
Krasner observed that Asian regional and trans-Pacific
groupings tended to be organized on the basis of either 1)
functional cooperation; 2) shared values; or 3) having many
meetings on the assumption that if leaders meet often enough
common interest would emerge. Although U.S. alliances were
based on functions and values, organizations among Asian
countries often tended to promote interaction among leaders
for its own sake. The U.S. concern is that a grouping based
merely on leadership interaction might undermine the
functional and value-oriented relationships the United States
has with Asian countries. DVM Kohno said the three countries
needed to consider how to reinforce the existing regional and
trans-regional organizations, as APEC, ARF, ASEM, etc. could
all be criticized for making little tangible progress after
many years.

China and the U.S.-Japan Alliance
--------------


13. (C) Deputy Minister Park asked about China's response
to the recent reinforcement of the U.S.-Japan alliance and
inquired as to the alliance's scope. Kanehara noted that
after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Japan began to
consider how it might participate in international
peacekeeping operations. In line with that thinking, the
U.S.-Japan alliance had become global in scope. Feigenbaum
said the United States was delighted by recent developments
in the alliance and supported an expanded role for Japan in
the international system. Feigenbaum acknowledged that this
had led some in China to shift their view of the alliance,
believing that the United States no longer "corked the
bottle" of Japanese militarism, but encouraged a more robust
security role for Japan. However, he noted, the United
States thought that an enhanced Japanese role was good for
Asia and, for that matter, for China since the PRC benefited
not only from the peace and stability engendered by the
alliance in Asia, but across the globe as well.

TOKYO 00002664 004.2 OF 004




14. (U) Participants:

United States
--------------

Stephen D. Krasner, Director, Policy Planning Staff
Joe Donovan, Deputy Chief of Mission, Embassy Tokyo
James Zumwalt, Economic Minister-Counselor, Embassy Tokyo
Evan Feigenbaum, S/P Member
David Wolff, Political Officer, Embassy Tokyo
Steve Hill, Political Officer, Embassy Tokyo (notetaker)

Japan
--------------

Masaharu Kohno, MOFA Deputy Vice-Minister for Foreign Policy
Nobukatsu Kanehara, Minister, Embassy of Japan (Washington)
Koji Tomita, Minister, Embassy of Japan (Seoul)
Hiroshi Kawamura, MOFA Director, Policy Planning Division
Shinya Fujita, MOFA Deputy Director, Policy Planning Division

South Korea
--------------

Park In-Kook, MOFAT Deputy Minister for Policy Planning and
International Organizations
Yeon Sang-Mo, Minister-Counselor, Embassy of Korea (Tokyo)
Kim Ki-Woong, MOFAT Director, Inter-Korean Policy Division
Park Ki-Jun, MOFAT Deputy Director, Northeast Asia Division
Park Young-Kyu, MOFAT Deputy Director, Policy Planning and
Coordination Division
Oh Song, MOFAT Director, Policy Planning and Coordination
Division
Hahn Choong-Hee, MOFAT Director, North America Division


15. (U) S/P Director Krasner cleared this message.
DONOVAN