FUKUDA MAKES HIS MOVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 002443

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/02/2026
TAGS: PGOV PREL CH JA
SUBJECT: FUKUDA MAKES HIS MOVE

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Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i., Joe Donovan. Reason: 1.4 (b)(d)
.


1. (C) Summary. Former Chief Cabinet Secretary (CCS) Yasuo
Fukuda is very slowly inching up in the public opinion polls
on current CCS Shinzo Abe, the front-runner to replace PM
Koizumi in September's LDP presidential election. While
Fukuda, like Abe, is not a declared candidate, his recent
words and actions indicate that he is serious about
contending. Fukuda is differentiating himself from Abe by
stressing his experience and by staking out a more
conciliatory position toward Japan's neighbors, particularly
China. In a recent TV interview, he opposed prime
ministerial visits to Yasukuni Shrine and stressed that
improved relations between Japan and its Asian neighbors
would contribute to stronger U.S.-Japan ties. Senior LDP
faction leaders, notably Yoshiro Mori, appear to be leaning
towards Fukuda, but overall Abe,s support among LDP Diet
members remains high. End summary.


2. (C) Former Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda is making
his move in his undeclared run for the Liberal Democratic
Party (LDP),s presidency, according to Japan,s political
and media observers. Under Japan,s parliamentary system,
the winner of the LDP,s September presidential election will
automatically become the next Prime Minister. Fukuda has
emerged in the polls as a PM candidate along with three
younger and politically less experienced candidates - Chief
Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe who is in the lead, Foreign
Minister Taro Aso and Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki.
According to the April Yomiuri poll, Abe remains far in front
with 44.0 %, thought he dropped 1% over the previous month.
Fukuda picked up 3%, moving from 10% to 13%. Aso and
Tanigaki continued to trail far behind with 5% (down 1%) and
1% (down 1%),respectively.

Call for a New Asia Policy
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3. (C) Fukuda is now visiting the Middle East and will be in
the United States from May 10, starting with a personal visit
with ex-Ambassador Baker and then moving on to Washington.
These high-profile trips, combined with recent policy
statements, clearly signal his intent to run for the LDP
presidency, local observers believe. On April 25, Fukuda,
son of the late Prime Minister Takeo Fukuda, made a major
policy speech in which he unveiled plans to develop a new
Asia policy based on his father's "Fukuda doctrine." (Note:
Proposed in 1977, the Fukuda Doctrine was a response to the
anti-Japan demonstrations that dogged PM Tanaka,s Southeast
Asia tour in January 1974 and introduced a kinder, gentler
approach to the ASEAN countries. Subsequent prime ministers
expanded the policy to China and South Korea.) Japan, Fukuda
argued, needs a new policy in order to repair Japan,s ties
with other Asian nations, especially China and the ROK.
Fukuda explained that his "new" Fukuda doctrine would build
on the sincere "heart to heart" principle of his father,s
doctrine, while taking into account the rise of China and the
emerging East Asia community. Fukuda also strongly
criticized PM Koizumi's repeated visits to Yasukuni Shrine,
calling them "simply wrong." Separately, in an April 30
NHK-TV appearance, Fukuda explicitly stated that Japan,s
next prime minister should not visit Yasukuni and underscored
that that rebuilding ties with Asia would help strengthen
U.S.-Japan relations. Pursuing better relations with Asia
should be an urgent task.

Bio note
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4. (C) Rep. Fukuda, now 69 year-old, is a LDP 6th term Mori
faction member representing Gunma 4th district. He has a
distinguished political pedigree, being the son of former
Prime Minister Takeo Fukuda, for whom PM Koizumi served as a
secretary before becoming a politician. A graduate of the

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Waseda University, Fukuda worked for the Maruzen Oil Inc. for
17 years before becoming his father's secretary. After
learning the ropes in that job for about a decade, the
younger Fukuda entered the political fray rather late in life
-- at the age of 54 -- by running and winning in his father's
district.


5. (C) A member of a well-respected political family,
Fukuda's political career progressed fairly smoothly; he was
placed in key party and Cabinet posts earlier than others of
similar Diet experience. Fukuda, known for his gruff
personality and business-like manner, was not well known,

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however, until he was picked as Chief Cabinet Secretary in
2000 by Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori to replace Rep. Hidenao
Nakagawa, who was forced out of the office for a scandal. He
expanded his influence as CCS under the Koizumi Cabinet by
effectively utilizing his Diet and bureaucratic networks, and
quickly become the "must-see person" in the Prime Minister's
office for all major policy decisions. As CCS, he also
headed a panel to explore possible war memorial alternatives
to Yasukuni Shrine. In May 2004 Fukuda abruptly announced
his resignation as CCS, citing public criticism for his
non-payment into the national pension system. The media and
our political contacts, however, believe the real reason for
his step-down was his fundamental disagreement with PM
Koizumi over Asia policy, including the PM's first surprise
visit to the Pyongyang, as well as personal friction with
then-Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe and the PM's
executive assistant Isao Iijima.

Comment
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6. (C) Still early in the race, Fukuda has latched on to
foreign policy differences with PM Koizumi and CCS Abe to
distinguish himself from the rest of the pack. Fukuda is a
strong supporter of the U.S.-Japan alliance but believes that
the alliance is weakened by Japan,s strained relations with
its neighbors. Senior LDP faction leaders, notably Yoshiro
Mori, appear to be leaning towards Fukuda, but overall Abe,s
support among LDP Diet members remains high.
DONOVAN