JAPAN CAN RELY ON STRONG U.S. TIES, EAP/DAS KEITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 002282

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/26/2031
TAGS: PREL PGOV ETRD CH TW JA
SUBJECT: JAPAN CAN RELY ON STRONG U.S. TIES, EAP/DAS KEITH
TELLS SCHOLAR

Classified By: CDA Joe Donovan. Reasons:1.4(b/d).


1. (C) Summary: During an April 26 discussion, visiting
EAP/DAS James Keith told a Japanese scholar that Japan should
approach its relations with China and Taiwan with more
self-confidence, asserting that U.S. interests would always
favor a strong U.S.-Japan alliance. Japan would benefit from
cooperating with the United States on getting China and
Taiwan to reduce their zero-sum competition for diplomatic
space, he averred. End Summary.

U.S.-Japan-China Relations
--------------


2. (C) In a wide-ranging April 26 discussion of relations
among the United States, Japan, China and Taiwan, National
Institute for Defense Studies (NIDS) Senior Research Fellow
Yasuhiro Matsuda told EAP Deputy Assistant Secretary James
Keith that the Koizumi administration's lack of a
well-thought-out policy on relations with Asia had harmed
Japanese interests. Japan's right-wing minority has become
more vocal on anti-China nationalism, influencing the younger
generation and making it more difficult for Tokyo to improve
relations with Beijing. He said many Japanese believe China
is seeking to use the United States to pressure Japan.


3. (C) DAS Keith stated that the United States has long
made clear to the PRC that it is important to U.S. interests
that China work with Japan on reducing bilateral tensions and
improving the relationship. Beijing does not attempt to use
Washington to pressure Japan, he averred, because the Chinese
understand that the U.S.-Japan alliance will always take
precedence over U.S.-China relations.

Cross-Strait Relations
--------------


4. (C) Turning to cross-Strait relations, Matsuda stated
that Japan's national interests benefited from: 1) stable
cross-Strait relations; 2) increased cross-Strait economic
integration; and 3) continued de facto separation of Taiwan
and mainland China. However, he asserted, many in Japan
believed that Taiwan's rapidly growing economic integration
with China would lead to political unification. Not only
would this create a stronger China, but, they believed, it
would also leave Japan isolated in the region. Moreover, as
Japan has had little contact with the KMT since former
President Lee Teng-hui's departure from the party, Japan is
uncertain as to what steps KMT Chairman and Taipei Mayor Ma
Ying-jeou might take on cross-Strait relations should he be
elected president of Taiwan in 2008. If Taiwan were to reach
an accommodation with the Mainland, many in Japan believe the
United States would strengthen its relations with the PRC at
Japan's expense. Consequently, Matsuda observed, although he
does not subscribe to the view himself, many in Japan believe
Japanese interests are served by friction in U.S.-China
relations.


5. (C) DAS Keith stated that he disagreed with the
underlying premise, saying that Japan should have more
self-confidence in its relations with both the United States
and China. China will continue to modernize and grow
economically, whether it reunites with Taiwan or not, but
Japan has many real advantages over China because of its
democracy, market-based economy and strong alliance with the
United States. Moreover, U.S.-China relations can never be
compared to the close relationship that the United States
maintains with Japan. Rather than looking for points of
friction between the United States and China, Japan may rest
assured that Washington will always be closer to Tokyo than
Beijing, and that the United States will not let China take
Taiwan by force. Therefore, it would benefit both Japan and
the United States to work together on helping Taiwan take a
long-term perspective on its prosperity.


6. (C) The zero-sum competition for diplomatic space
between Taiwan and China is interfering with the interests of
the United States as well as Japan, DAS Keith noted. For
instance, checkbook diplomacy by Taiwan and China is
contributing to corruption, undermining U.S. and others'
efforts to promote good governance in the Pacific and in

TOKYO 00002282 002 OF 002


Latin America and the Caribbean. The United States is
committed to Taiwan's democracy, he asserted, stating that
Japan and the United States should cooperate in promoting
Taiwan's democracy in ways that do not engage the zero-sum
struggle between the PRC and Taiwan over sovereignty or
security. Over time, China may recognize that its long-term
interests are harmed by its diplomatic competition with
Taiwan. It would be helpful if Japan conveyed the message to
China that it needs to undertake a dialogue with the elected
leadership on Taiwan and to give the Taiwan people more space
in the international environment, he stated.


7. (U) DAS Keith has cleared this message.
DONOVAN