Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06TOKYO2193
2006-04-21 08:18:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Tokyo
Cable title:  

APRIL 23 BY-ELECTION A TOSS-UP

Tags:  PGOV JA 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXYZ0042
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHKO #2193 1110818
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 210818Z APR 06
FM AMEMBASSY TOKYO
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1249
UNCLAS TOKYO 002193 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV JA
SUBJECT: APRIL 23 BY-ELECTION A TOSS-UP

UNCLAS TOKYO 002193

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV JA
SUBJECT: APRIL 23 BY-ELECTION A TOSS-UP


1. (SBU) Summary. The April 23 by-election for Chiba
District 7 pits LDP candidate Ken Saito against opposition
DPJ candidate Kazumi Ota. The media is playing up the
election as the first showdown between Prime Minister Koizumi
and new DPJ President Ichiro Ozawa. Koizumi has a personal
stake in the by-election, LDP politicians and staffers
informed us, because he wants to leave office in September on
a winning note. Everyone we spoke with agreed that the race
is too close to call, but the LDP is pessimistic. LDP
politicians and staffers claim that Saito is "too perfect"
and is having a hard time connecting with voters, but they
assure us that they are not giving up, and intend to throw
all their resources into winning over more voters this
weekend. In an "only in Japan" wrinkle to the race, the
26-year old Ota once worked as a bar hostess and was put in
juvenile protective custody after fighting with her parents
in a public park. End Summary.


2. (SBU) The Lower House by-election for Chiba District 7 is
the last election for Prime Minister Koizumi and he is very
determined to win, a Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) staffer
told us on April 20. The poll pits LDP candidate Ken Saito
(46, Saitama Vice-Governor) against opposition Democratic
Party of Japan (DPJ) candidate Kazumi Ota (26, Chiba
prefectural assembly member). A Japan Communist Party
candidate and two independents are also running, but are not
expected to figure significantly in the election. Japan
holds by-elections twice a year, in April and October, to
fill vacant Diet seats.


3. (SBU) The media is playing up the election as the first
showdown between Koizumi and new DPJ President Ichiro Ozawa.
Koizumi has a personal stake in the by-election, LDP
politicians and staffers informed us, because he wants to
leave office in September on a winning note. One staffer
predicted that an LDP win in Chiba would also help reinforce
Koizumi's already solid popularity ratings. Both parties
have sent a continuous stream of politicians, including
Koizumi and Ozawa, to rally votes. One reporter shared that
he tried to cover the Diet session on Monday, but found it
empty since members of both parties were in Chiba
campaigning.


4. (SBU) Everyone we spoke with agreed that the race is too
close to call. Surveys conducted by Japan's two largest
newspapers confirmed that the race is a "dead heat." The LDP
is pessimistic, claiming that Saito is "too perfect" in the
sense that he is a graduate of the elite Tokyo University,
was an "elite" bureaucrat at the Ministry of Economy, Trade
and Industry, and studied at both Harvard and Johns Hopkins's
School of Advanced International Studies. He is having a
hard time connecting with voters, they complained. An LDP
staffer suggested that, even if Saito does not win the
by-election, the widespread publicity he is receiving will
surely help his chances in the next election. Our LDP
interlocutors assure us that they are not giving up, and
intend to throw all their resources into winning over more
voters this weekend.


5. (SBU) The LDP camp cattily tells us that Ota is using her
feminine wiles to appeal to the over-60 male crowd. In an
"only in Japan" wrinkle, she used to work at a down-market
hostess club and was put in juvenile protective custody after
fighting with her parents in a public park. Ota hails from a
rich real estate family and was known to ride to high school
on a motorcycle, leading to an unsubstantiated rumor she was
a leader of a motorcycle gang.
DONOVAN