Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06TOKYO2093
2006-04-18 07:23:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tokyo
Cable title:  

THE DPJ UNDER ICHIRO OZAWA: WHAT TO EXPECT (WHEN

Tags:  PGOV PREL JA 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXYZ0001
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHKO #2093/01 1080723
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 180723Z APR 06
FM AMEMBASSY TOKYO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1093
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 1815
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 7947
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 7980
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L TOKYO 002093 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/11/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL JA
SUBJECT: THE DPJ UNDER ICHIRO OZAWA: WHAT TO EXPECT (WHEN
YOU'RE NOT EXPECTING MUCH)

REF: A. TOKYO 1889

B. TOKYO 1839

C. TOKYO 1824

D. TOKYO 1734

Classified By: Ambassador J. Thomas Schieffer. Reasons: 1.4 b/d

C O N F I D E N T I A L TOKYO 002093

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/11/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL JA
SUBJECT: THE DPJ UNDER ICHIRO OZAWA: WHAT TO EXPECT (WHEN
YOU'RE NOT EXPECTING MUCH)

REF: A. TOKYO 1889

B. TOKYO 1839

C. TOKYO 1824

D. TOKYO 1734

Classified By: Ambassador J. Thomas Schieffer. Reasons: 1.4 b/d


1. (C) Summary. The election of Ichiro Ozawa as leader of
the opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) could have
long-term significance for Japan's political scene, but there
will be little or no immediate impact on U.S. interests.
Ozawa has created a wide network of contacts throughout a
long career and his emergence has the potential to ripple
through the Japanese body politic, impacting the selection of
the next prime minister, the Upper House election of 2007 and
the DPJ's ability to redefine itself as a distinct
alternative to the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). His
experience could also be a double-edged sword in handling the
DPJ's internal machinations. End Summary.

What Ozawa Brings to the Table
--------------


2. (C) New Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) President Ichiro
Ozawa's importance in the Japanese political scene cannot be
overstated. Love him or hate him -- and most people do --
Ozawa is among Japan's political elite, even if he would
prefer to be known as a rebel. In his first days as party
president, beginning with his larger-than-expected margin of
victory, Ozawa has done nothing to diminish his image as a
strong leader. Claiming in his acceptance speech that the
future of the two-party system rests on the success of the
DPJ, Ozawa pledged his life to reforming it. Since then
Ozawa, appearing tirelessly on television, has come out
clearly in opposition to PM Koizumi's visits to Yasukuni
Shrine, spoken out against Koizumi's administrative reform
and social safety net plans, and made it clear he will take a
more confrontational stance against the LDP. In one week,
some argue, he has created a clearer distinction between the
DPJ and LDP than either flip-flopping Seiji Maehara or
zero-charisma Katsuya Okada were able to accomplish in their
terms. In a Yomiuri poll immediately following Ozawa's
election, the public support rate for the DPJ jumped from
11.1 percent to 14.0 percent. Fifty-six percent of the
public said they expect Ozawa to bring change, while,

reflecting the DPJ's low overall image, 40 percent said they
do not expect much from him. Of those with expectations, 57
percent say Ozawa's rich in political experience, 28 percent
say he's a man of action, another 28 percent say he has
leadership ability, and only 6 percent believe he's
trustworthy. Following Ozawa's election, PM Koizumi remarked
"I think he is tough, because he knows our party well."

Ozawa's Potential Impact On Koizumi's Successor
-------------- --


3. (C) The resignation of Maehara as President of the
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) and the rise of Ozawa as his
replacement should have little effect on U.S. interests in
the short term. Ozawa's emergence, however, has the
potential to ripple through the Japanese political scene,
beginning with his possible impact on the selection of the
next prime minister.


4. (C) According to venerable Kyodo News political reporter
Kenji Goto, while the Japanese public views PM Koizumi and
Ozawa as near equals in terms of political skill and
experience, Ozawa overshadows the two candidates most widely
regarded to be Koizumi's successor, Shinzo Abe and Yasuo
Fukuda. Although polls continue to show Abe has an
overwhelming lead in popularity among the general public (47
percent to Fukuda's 18),Goto felt that Maehara's demise
actually hurt Abe. Maehara, who had his own level of
popularity before taking on the DPJ president job, proved to
be too inexperienced to lead a party. The only question mark
over Abe has been whether he has the experience necessary to
lead. Fukuda is seen as less skilled than Ozawa in brokering
political deals. Should Ozawa be able to gain public support
between now and the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)
presidential election in September, Goto said, LDP members
will have to take into consideration who could best lead the
party against Ozawa into the July 2007 Upper House elections.
Most pundits already feel the LDP stands to lose some ground
in the 2007 Upper House election, since it will be difficult
to match the results of the incumbents' last race in 2001, in
which the LDP did surprisingly well on the coattails of
then-new PM Koizumi.

Ozawa's Potential Impact on the LDP
--------------


5. (C) Further complicating Ozawa's impact on the LDP is
Ozawa's history with the party and his continuing deep
connections with it. To begin with, Ozawa, an LDP member
from 1969-1993, was a Tanaka faction member, and still
retains ties to LDP Upper House Chairman Mikio Aoki. While
Koizumi has been able to pretty well crush the
Tanaka-Hashimoto-Tsushima faction within the party, four of
the DPJ's top five leaders are former Tanaka faction members:
Ozawa, Secretary General Hatoyama, Supreme Advisor Hata, and
Diet Affairs Chief Watanabe (Naoto Kan is the exception).
Even though modern Japanese political history has revolved
around the single-party dynamics of the LDP, with the
opposition simply floundering in an anti-LDP role, a critical
mass may finally be forming within the opposition that has
the connections, know-how and incentive to overtake the LDP.


6. (C) Already Ozawa has caused a stir in the media by
meeting with traditional LDP support groups such as the Japan
Medical Association and Japan Dental Association, and his
April 11 meeting with Soka Gakkai Chairman Akiya "set off
alarms in the ruling camp," according to Yomiuri news.
Another interesting sidenote is the very close relationship
between Ozawa and Shintaro Abe, Shinzo's father. When PM
Takeshita wanted Seiroku Kajiyama as his Secretary General
back in 1989, it was Shin Kanemaru and Shintaro Abe who
supported the 49-year old Ozawa and got him the job.

Ozawa's Potential Impact on the DPJ
--------------


7. (C) DPJ Upper House member Kazuya Shimba told Poloff
recently that Ozawa "was the only possible choice" for
members in the April 7 election and, with the exception of
the Matsushita Institute quasi-faction of the DPJ -- the
young turks such as Maehara, Genba and Edano, who supported
Kan -- party members fell in line behind Ozawa. "Because Kan
had run the party twice before," Shimba said, "the only way
to bring a fresh image to the party was to elect Ozawa."
Shimba said he had read in the press that Ozawa's election
may drive "Matsushita types" out of the party, leaving Ozawa
with the blame for splitting yet another party, but called
such a scenario "impossible." Party members still believe
the current configuration of the DPJ remains the best
possible vehicle for taking over the reins of government from
the LDP. Ozawa immediately calmed some fears within the
party by retaining most of Maehara's executive staff.


8. (C) Shimba predicted that the party's September 2006
presidential election would merely be a confidence motion
re-electing Ozawa. At that point, Ozawa will likely feel
more comfortable about inserting his own people into the
party's leadership positions, although he will have to
appease traditional party members such as Kan and Maehara to
maintain cohesion heading into the next election. Even
though the Secretary General has traditionally managed
elections for the DPJ, Ozawa has already decided to review
Upper House election candidates and manage the election by
himself. He will consequently be the face of the DPJ in the
July 2007 election. At that point, if the DPJ does well,
then the DPJ could again be seen by the public as a possible
contender for the reins of government. Should the DPJ
actually win a simple majority in the Upper House in 2007 --
Shimba's very optimistic prediction, since the coalition
would have to lose over 25 seats to the DPJ -- the playing
field would begin to tilt in the DPJ's favor. The DPJ could
then claim a mandate and at least disrupt Diet proceedings by
sending bills back to the Lower House (where the LDP would
still maintain a two-thirds majority). Shimba also said he
felt a DPJ Upper House victory could force the LDP to
dissolve the Lower House earlier than 2009, although Embassy
officers believe it is unlikely the LDP would risk giving
away its two-thirds majority prematurely. Comment: Shimba
obviously has a vested interest in the outcome he predicts.
For it to really happen, however, would require a near
perfect political storm in the DPJ's favor. End comment.

Ozawa's Potential Impact on U.S. Interests
--------------


9. (C) Ozawa has a long track record of being generally
pro-U.S., and there is no reason to believe that will change.
During his pre-election speech on April 7, Ozawa reiterated
that the U.S.-Japan security treaty remains the pillar of
Japan's security policy, and he basically supports U.S.
security policy. In the past, Ozawa has been seen to have
had good working relationships with many U.S. government
officials. We can expect Ozawa, for domestic political
purposes, to play opposition politics on issues such as beef
and base realignment, but his record suggests that he is too
pragmatic and too much of a political animal to allow any
issue to have a long-term, debilitating effect on the
bilateral relationship. Post expects that Ozawa will likely
want to visit the U.S. in the summer of 2006 in order to
rebuild his ties, and those of the DPJ, with Washington.
SCHIEFFER