Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06TOKYO1734
2006-03-31 07:21:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Tokyo
Cable title:  

DPJ LEADERSHIP RESIGNS

Tags:  PGOV JA 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXYZ0000
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHKO #1734/01 0900721
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 310721Z MAR 06
FM AMEMBASSY TOKYO
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0392
UNCLAS TOKYO 001734 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV JA
SUBJECT: DPJ LEADERSHIP RESIGNS

UNCLAS TOKYO 001734

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV JA
SUBJECT: DPJ LEADERSHIP RESIGNS


1. (SBU) Summary. Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) President
Seiji Maehara and DPJ Secretary General Yukio Hatoyama
announced their resignations on March 31. This surprise move
caught DPJ staffers flatfooted. Maehara and Hatoyama's
decision was in response to the ongoing turmoil caused by a
DPJ member's use of a fake e-mail to accuse Liberal
Democratic Party Secretary General Takebe's son of taking
money from former Livedoor chairman, Takafumi Horie. It is
unclear who will succeed Maehara. The pool of candidates
includes Naoto Kan, Kozo Watanabe, Yukio Hatoyama and Ichiro
Ozawa, with Ozawa and Kan seeming to be frontrunners at this
point. End Summary.

Abrupt Resignation
--------------


2. (SBU) In a surprise move, Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ)
President Seiji Maehara and DPJ Secretary General Yukio
Hatoyama announced their resignations on March 31. The
announcement caught DPJ staffers flatfooted. Midway through
a cherry blossom party at the British Embassy also attended
by Embassy political officers, four DPJ staffers rushed back
to the office to deal with the new development. The staffers
said, before departing, that they had heard that Maehara
might announce his resignation on a television news program
at noon.


3. (SBU) The Maehara and Hatoyama resignations came after
weeks of turmoil caused by the "e-mail scandal." Junior
lower house lawmaker Hisayasu Nagata in mid-February accused
Liberal Democratic Party Secretary General Tsutomu Takebe's
son of having accepted 30 million yen from the disgraced and
jailed former chairman of Livedoor, Takafumi Horie. As
evidence, Nagata presented an e-mail that seemed to come from
Horie ordering the money transfer. The e-mail, which turned
out to be a fake, served to reverse the DPJ's growing
momentum in the Diet. For the last several weeks, the DPJ
has been on the defensive in Diet meetings and in the media.
Even before the resignation announcement, every DPJ staffer
we spoke with was pessimistic and resigned to the criticism
from the ruling coalition and media. One DPJ staffer,
speaking frankly, shared her opinion that the resignations
could have been avoided had Nagata voluntarily agreed to give
up his Diet seat. Instead, a party disciplinary committee
suspended him from the party for six months; a Diet
disciplinary hearing is ongoing. Nagata, according to media
reports, will resign his Diet seat.


4. (SBU) Adding to the pressure on Maehara are widely
circulated rumors that party funds were used to pay for the
fake e-mail. Shukan Shincho, a tabloid weekly, reported on
March 30 that Nagata paid one million yen for the e-mail from
DPJ funds. The report also said that the money involved
could have been higher. Up to 4 million yen may have been
drawn from party funds for transactions with the creator of
the phony e-mail, Shukan Shincho asserted.

Next Up
--------------


5. (SBU) Maehara's poor showing leaves younger candidates at
a distinct disadvantage. One Embassy contact suggested that
the party will seek someone with a "solid track record" like
Ichiro Ozawa or Kozo Watanabe to make up for the "amateurish"
party performance over the e-mail issue. Vice Speaker of the
Lower House Takahiro Yokomichi also told us in late February
-- soon after the e-mail scandal broke out -- that Maehara's
performance has discredited the idea that the younger
generation is ready to lead. Yokomichi predicted that the
DPJ would opt for a more experienced politician to succeed
Maehara. DPJ staffers remained tight-lipped about possible
successors to Maehara. The pool of candidates includes Naoto
Kan, Kozo Watanabe, Yukio Hatoyama and Ichiro Ozawa. Ozawa
and Kan seem to be frontrunners.

Selection Process
--------------


6. (SBU) One party staffer anticipated that the DPJ would
opt for a limited selection process, one in which current DPJ
Diet members choose their next leader. A full-blown election
-- one in which local party chapters cast votes for the next
party president -- would take too long, the staffer
explained. The winner would then finish the rest of
Maehara's term, which is set to end in September. This
staffer was confident that the DPJ would want, at all costs,
to avoid creating a vacuum during the ongoing Diet session.
Leaving the party leaderless for too long is often seen as
"irresponsible" and would leave the DPJ open to further
criticism.


7. (SBU) An Ozawa-Kan race will highlight the right-left
split in the DPJ. Maehara barely squeezed by Kan, a leader
of the DPJ's left, reformist wing, in the September 2004
poll, which he won by only two votes.
DONOVAN