Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06TOKYO1566
2006-03-24 08:34:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tokyo
Cable title:  

MOFA UPDATE ON EAST ASIA SUMMIT DEVELOPMENTS

Tags:  PREL ASEAN APEC ETRD CH IN RS JA 
pdf how-to read a cable
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 001566 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT PASS USTR FOR CUTLER/NEUFFER/BEEMAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/23/2031
TAGS: PREL ASEAN APEC ETRD CH IN RS JA
SUBJECT: MOFA UPDATE ON EAST ASIA SUMMIT DEVELOPMENTS

TOKYO 00001566 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Ambassador J. Thomas Schieffer. Reasons:1.4(b/d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 001566

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT PASS USTR FOR CUTLER/NEUFFER/BEEMAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/23/2031
TAGS: PREL ASEAN APEC ETRD CH IN RS JA
SUBJECT: MOFA UPDATE ON EAST ASIA SUMMIT DEVELOPMENTS

TOKYO 00001566 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Ambassador J. Thomas Schieffer. Reasons:1.4(b/d).


1. (C) Summary: In comments to the Embassy on March 22,
our MOFA contact on regional integration averred that efforts
to create an East Asian community would move ahead, even if
progress is slow and unsteady. He informally suggested that
the United States might want to take advantage of Russia's
efforts to become a member of the East Asian Summit (EAS) by
telling ASEAN that the United States and Russia should be
treated equally by both being made observers. Concerned that
Russian participation in the EAS would redound in China's
favor, Japan is seeking U.S. involvement in the EAS to
counter Beijing's growing influence in Asia. End Summary.

Road Toward an East Asian community
--------------


2. (C) On March 22, MOFA Asian Affairs Bureau Regional
Policy Director Takio Yamada reviewed upcoming developments
in Asian regional integration with Embassy Tokyo political
officer. Looking beyond the second East Asia Summit
scheduled for December, 2006, Yamada said a Joint Statement
being prepared for the tenth anniversary of ASEAN Plus 3
would be a major declaration on East Asian regionalism.
Intended to provide a road map for community building, the
Joint Statement will be issued in Singapore in 2007 and is
already under preparation. Yamada observed that while all of
the goals of the Joint Statement may not be achieved, it
should be watched carefully as it could greatly affect the
future course of regional integration.


3. (C) Yamada noted that among the most immediate questions
needing to be addressed by the community building effort are:
1) the relationship between ASEAN Plus 3 and the EAS; and 2)
the relationship of the EAS to the United States. Yamada
opined that the Philippines, as host of the second EAS to be
held in Cebu in December, was unlikely to make progress on
major issues, but growing regional interdependence would,

nonetheless, push forward Asian integration. For that
reason, he informally advised, the United States should
consider how to deepen its involvement in the region and the
EAS.


4. (C) Alluding to the contest between Japan and China as
to which grouping would lead regional integration, Yamada
asserted that the momentum toward building an East Asian
community would continue, whether the driving force was the
EAS or ASEAN Plus 3. While the United States understandably
emphasizes the importance of APEC, he said, U.S.
participation in APEC alone is insufficient to deal with the
sub-currents of regional integration. One way to increase
U.S. engagement with Asia, Yamada suggested, was to become
involved in the EAS. Reasoning that the United States was
unlikely to agree to cabinet-level involvement in the EAS,
Yamada thought that the United States might want to consider
seeking participation in the EAS as an observer at the Senior
Officials Meeting (SOM)-level (Under Secretary).

Observerships For Russia and the U.S.?
--------------


5. (C) Pointing to the upcoming ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF)
ministerial in July in Kuala Lumpur, Yamada said the annual
ARF meeting might provide an opportunity for the United
States to engage with the EAS. He explained that Russia has
continued to press for membership in the EAS and that a
decision might come as early as the July ASEAN foreign
ministers meeting in Kuala Lumpur. Although Japan did not
favor Russian membership, he opined that ASEAN would likely
approve Moscow's entreaties to join the organization. Noting
that Indonesia President Yudhoyono would be visiting Moscow
in June, he predicted that if Indonesia did not object to
Russian membership in the EAS, it would be approved. Yamada
expressed concern that an invitation to Russia to join the
EAS while Secretary Rice was in Kuala Lumpur for the ARF
ministerial would upstage the United States and tangetially
embarrass Japan. Citing sensitivity on the part of some
ASEAN countries to U.S. concerns, Yamada suggested that the
United States could use this opportunity to press for
observerships for both Russia and the United States on the
basis of equal treatment.


TOKYO 00001566 002.2 OF 002


Objective is Countering China
--------------


6. (C) Yamada readily acknowledged that Russian involvement
in the EAS, if not balanced by U.S. participation, would be
inimical to Japanese interests. While Russian influence in
Southeast Asia is currently limited, Moscow is stepping up
its regional activity. Russia has proposed to make last
year's Russia-ASEAN summit an annual event and Moscow has
increased its weapons sales in Asia, he noted. The danger to
Japanese interests, Yamada said, is that Russian presence in
the EAS may unwittingly help China fulfill its agenda for the
region. Japan brought India into the EAS to counter China,
but Russian participation in the EAS would mitigate India's
ability to counter China. New Delhi's long-time relationship
with Moscow would prevent India from standing up to China if
Moscow joined with Beijing on EAS issues. Moreover, Russian
involvement in the EAS would play to China's strategy of
diluting the EAS, Yamada observed, making ASEAN Plus 3 (where
the PRC has a relatively stronger voice) the more effective
grouping for directing the East Asian community.


7. (C) Acting now while there is a temporary lull would
enable the United States to gain a foothold in the EAS and to
check Russian ambitions in Southeast Asia, Yamada continued.
It would also enable the United States to build on the
goodwill engendered by the 2005 U.S.-ASEAN summit. He
averred that the growing self-awareness of Asian nations
would ensure continued movement toward an East Asian
community and that Japan and the United States needed to stay
engaged with the region in order to protect their interests.

Comment
--------------


8. (C) Ever since China first proposed the EAS, Japan has
strongly desired U.S. participation in the EAS for two
reasons: 1) to help Japan counter China's growing influence
in Southeast Asia, and 2) to keep Japan from having to choose
between siding with its geographic neighbors or its
security-treaty ally. The Japanese are convinced that the
march toward an East Asian community will proceed, albeit
slowly and fitfully. They cannot afford to be frozen out of
Asia and so believe they must participate in the EAS. Japan
is greatly concerned about perceived Chinese ambitions for
regional domination, and Tokyo feels it cannot prevent
Beijing from taking charge of the regional community-building
process on its own. Although Japan succeeded in bringing
India, Australia and New Zealand into the EAS, Japan will
only feel confident that its interests are protected once the
United States becomes a participant in the new grouping.

Bio Note
--------------


9. (C) Yamada, who has been an excellent contact during the
past several years while assigned to MOFA, will be
transferred to New Delhi in April to head the Japanese
embassy's political section. Yamada knows South Asia well
from his recent stint as Director of the Asian Affairs
Bureau's Southwest Asia Division.
SCHIEFFER