SCENESETTER FOR CODEL LUGAR'S VISIT TO ALBANIA

UNCLAS TIRANA 000846

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

STATE FOR H, EUR/SCE (DAVIS, SAINZ),ISN/NDF (PAULSON)
OSD FOR CTR POLICY (REID, WEBER)

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OREP PARM MASS NATO PGOV ECON PREL AL
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR CODEL LUGAR'S VISIT TO ALBANIA


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Mr. Chairman, the Albanian Chemical Weapons
Elimination Program (ACWEP) is proceeding apace. Although
delays in testing the destruction equipment in Germany mean
that destruction will not have begun by the time of your
visit, the program is nevertheless on track to complete
destruction in time to meet the April 2007 deadline imposed
by the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC). You will see a
facility with substantially upgraded security as well as
destruction equipment in place.


2. (SBU) Politically, your visit could not come at a better
time. Euro-Atlantic integration is a goal shared by
virtually the entire political spectrum and enjoying broad
support from the public. However, the deterioration of the
political atmosphere in the past several months has virtually
precluded work on the tough reforms and the
institution-building that are crucial to Albania's
Euro-Atlantic aspirations. Your visit is an outstanding
opportunity to send the message -- to both the government and
the opposition -- that this difficult job will require them
to reach across the aisle and work together, as you did in
creating the Nunn-Lugar program that made possible the
destruction of Albania's CW stockpile. Visits at your level
are exceedingly rare (we will have had only two official
Congressional Delegations, and none composed of Senators,
since your visit here in 2004),and we hope you will use this
chance to tell Albania that, while the U.S. supports its
aspirations and wants it to succeed, ultimately it is up to
Albania itself to achieve the necessary progress. END
SUMMARY.

CW ELIMINATION PROGRAM


3. (SBU) Through the Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction
(CTR) program, the U.S. is assisting Albania with the
destruction of approximately 16 metric tons of blister agent,
the existence of which was first disclosed in June 2002. In
December 2004, the U.S. Department of Defense and the
Albanian Ministry of Defense (MOD) concluded an Implementing
Agreement for the safe, secure, and environmentally sound
destruction of the stockpile in compliance with Albania's
obligations under the Chemical Weapons Convention.
Authorized funding is currently at $34.4 million, and the
project is managed by DOD and implemented by the Defense
Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA). In 2005, the contract for
the destruction was awarded to Washington Group
International; Eisenmann AG of Germany is providing the
destruction technology. Raytheon Technical Services Company
improved the road leading to the site and constructed the
concrete pad on which the destruction equipment has been
placed.


4. (SBU) Due to damage sustained during testing of the
destruction equipment in Germany and required modifications
to the system, the start of destruction operations has been
postponed from July to October 2006. Final testing should
take place between mid-August and the beginning of October,
but no operations will take place during the time of your
visit. Despite the delay, we still expect destruction to be
complete before the CWC deadline of April 29, 2007.


5. (SBU) Embassy Tirana and DTRA have worked closely with the
MOD to improve security practices at the site, and the
Department of State's Nonproliferation and Disarmament Fund
(NDF) provided extensive physical upgrades and new security
equipment. The site is now much better secured than when you
visited in 2004; however, there is always room for
improvement, and your visit is a good opportunity to remind
the MOD that it must not let its guard down during this
crucial final phase.


6. (SBU) Since the appearance of a January 2005 Washington
Post article on the project, which Albanian press picked up,
we have worked with the MOD to ensure an appropriate public
affairs posture that takes into account the sensitivity of
the project. Since then, there has been virtually no
reporting on the project in the local media. While neither
the existence of the stockpile itself nor of the ACWEP is a
secret, we believe that extensive media coverage of the issue

SIPDIS
is undesirable before the completion of destruction activity.
We are therefore avoiding comment on this aspect of your
visit and concentrating on your interest in Albania's
progress toward Euro-Atlantic integration.

NATO INTEGRATION AND MILITARY OUTLOOK

7. (SBU) Albania was among the first countries to answer our
calls for support in the GWOT, and its support has been
unwavering. It has a contingent of 120 combat troops in
Mosul, Iraq; and 22 Special Operation Forces in ISAF in
Afghanistan. In addition, it deployed nine personnel as part
of a Southeastern European Brigade (SEEBRIG) headquarters
element and has three in the A-3 Joint Medical Unit. There
are 71 troops in the EUFOR mission in Bosnia-Herzegovina.
Overall, including troops in training and preparation for
overseas deployments, Albania has about a third of its elite
troops committed to the GWOT. We suggest that you express
appreciation for Albania's contributions and emphasize the
importance of "exporting security" to NATO membership.


8. (SBU) The desire to join NATO (and the Euro-Atlantic
community in general, including the EU) is very strong in
Albania, enjoying broad support across the political spectrum
and among the public, although popular understanding of the
obligations associated with NATO membership is limited.
Albania had hoped to be invited to join NATO in 2006. Though
President Moisiu expressed sharp disappointment with the
"two-summit strategy," the reaction was more muted than in
Croatia or Macedonia. We have stressed that the door is
open, but it is Albania's achievement of necessary political
and military standards that will determine the timing of
accession. The Prime Minister and Defense Minister have, we
think, digested this message, but others in the government
and opposition to a lesser extent.


9. (SBU) Led by the energetic, politically savvy Fatmir
Mediu, the MOD is committed to modernizing the Albanian Armed
Forces (AAF) to make it deployable and NATO-interoperable.
However, while there is no doubt about the political
commitment, several constraints remain. Albania has failed
to keep to its own schedule for bringing defense spending up
to two percent of GDP by 2010. Real spending on defense
(excluding retirement) is about $120 million, with only about
eight percent of that amount available for modernization.
You should urge Albania (particularly the President and PM)
to empower younger leadership who "think and understand" NATO
and encourage the MOD to focus its modest resources on
creating a "niche capability" that shows Albania brings
something to the table. The Rapid Reaction Brigade (RRB),
which is the one highly touted unit the MOD says would be
ready for NATO duty if called, still lacks sufficient
equipment and personnel. The MOD is now working to equip,
train, and modernize this NATO-designated unit.


10. (SBU) U.S. Security Assistance programs include FMF (FY06
$3.5 million),IMET (FY06 $900,000),Global Peacekeeping
Operations Initiative (FY06 $3.5 million),DOD Humanitarian
Assistance, and a number of smaller programs. Resources are
focused on deployed and deployable units in GWOT (Commandos
and RRB),US/NATO/Coalition-interoperable equipment and
communications, and NATO integration through U.S. defense
reform advisors. The Office of Defense Cooperation (ODC)
initiated a Defense Reform Assessment this year to help MOD
define requirements and accelerate progress in defense reform
in resource-constrained circumstances.


11. (SBU) In addition to the ACWEP, the Department of State
has provided assistance with destruction of Albania's huge
stockpile of excess conventional munitions, including small
arms/light weapons (including MANPADS) through the Office of
Weapons Removal and Abatement in the Bureau of
Political-Military Affairs (PM/WRA),and heavy munitions
through NDF. The northeastern region of Albania (bordering
Kosovo) suffers from mines and unexploded ordnance left from
the Kosovo conflict, though most of the mines have now been
cleared. The USG has been the largest donor to mine action
in Albania, having contributed over $8 million since 2000.

POLITICAL OUTLOOK


12. (SBU) There have been significant changes in Albania's
political leadership since your last visit. Parliamentary
elections in July 2005 elections ended eight years of
Socialist Party (SP) rule and brought former President Sali
Berisha back to power as Prime Minister, leading a
center-right coalition dominated by his Democratic Party
(DP). Former PM Fatos Nano has (for now) exited the
political stage, with the opposition led by the charismatic
mayor of Tirana, Edi Rama (SP). The elections, though not
fully meeting international standards, were nevertheless
judged to be a step forward. Now Albania must implement a
rigorous program of broad-based reforms to strengthen
institutions and reduce corruption while respecting
democratic norms. The lack of strong, effective
institutions, a professional civil service, and respect for
the rule of law impedes progress in all areas, including
attracting the investment needed for economic development.
Institutions crucial to Albania's democratic development,
including NGOs, the media, religious organizations, and
business coalitions, are still relatively immature, and it
will take years of patient work to build them up to create a
strong, sustainable democracy.


13. (SBU) The new government has made combating organized
crime and corruption a top priority, a laudable goal given
that these are two of the biggest impediments to Albania's
Euro-Atlantic aspirations. It has made some good progress in
making several high-profile arrests of organized crime
figures in Albania and securing the extraditions of others
abroad. However, some of its methods have also generated
intense controversy, with the opposition charging the Prime
Minister with seeking to usurp Albania's constitutionally
independent institutions. Disagreements between the
government and the opposition have become increasingly
acrimonious in the last several months. Controversy centers
on a highly public government-led effort to remove the
independent Prosecutor General; political machinations by
both government and opposition to control the Central
Election Commission in the run-up to local elections; a
related battle over voters' registration lists; and the
selection of members of judicial and media oversight bodies.
Last month, tensions that had been largely contained within
democratic parameters erupted during a heated session in
Parliament, during which an opposition leader rushed the
speaker's podium. The session adjourned for the summer amid
fisticuffs.


14. (SBU) The opposition, blocked by the government's stable
majority in Parliament, faces limited options. Increasingly,
it appears that some in the opposition are prepared to
precipitate a political crisis that would lead to new
elections. The result is a political environment that,
contrary to focusing on the tough reforms necessary for
Albania to receive an invitation to NATO in 2008, has
disintegrated into partisan self-interest and virtual
stagnation. You should remind both the government and the
opposition that Albania's aspirations for NATO and EU
integration, which are supported broadly by its citizens,
must be the basis for all parties to work constructively on
needed reforms and that there is not much time. Particularly
as NATO takes on a role of a forum for dialogue on security
issues in the Euro-Atlantic community, it is crucial that
Albania demonstrate to Allies the political maturity required
to sit as an equal member on the North Atlantic Council.

ECONOMIC ISSUES


15. (SBU) Albania has enjoyed excellent macroeconomic
stability in recent years, with low inflation, solid growth,
and a stable currency. The main economic challenges include
an inadequate infrastructure (especially roads and energy),a
relatively low level of foreign direct investment, and the
lack of a competitive export sector. Albania's economy is to
a large extent dependent on remittances from Albanians
working abroad, especially in Greece and Italy. At about
$2.5 billion annually, imports are more than three times the
level of exports. The Millennium Challenge Corporation
recently approved $14 million of Threshold Program funding to
assist with urgently needed public procurement and tax
administration reform and to help create a National Business
Center.

REGIONAL ISSUES / KOSOVO


16. (SBU) Your interlocutors are likely to raise Kosovo and
regional issues. Albania has been a stabilizing influence in
the Balkans, particularly on Kosovo, by discouraging
extremism and supporting the efforts of the international
community. The new DP-led government has been somewhat more
vocal in support of Kosovar independence but says that its
basic policy has not changed. You should express
appreciation for Albania's constructive role in the region
and urge continued moderation.


17. (U) Mr. Chairman, it will be our honor to welcome you to
Tirana.
CRISTINA