NETHERLANDS/ELECTIONS: VVD PLAYS IT SAFE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 THE HAGUE 001236

SIPDIS

SIPDIS, SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV NL
SUBJECT: NETHERLANDS/ELECTIONS: VVD PLAYS IT SAFE

REFS: A. THE HAGUE 1141


B. THE HAGUE 1109

THE HAGUE 00001236 001.2 OF 002



1. (SBU) SUMMARY: In an upset victory announced May 31,
State Secretary for Education Mark Rutte defeated
Immigration Minister Rita Verdonk in the contest to lead the
Dutch Liberal Party (VVD) into the next election. While
polls had consistently shown Verdonk in the lead, Rutte's
popularity among the party leadership, and concerns about
Verdonk's polarizing approach, ultimately led to his
victory. Verdonk squelched speculation that she might leave
the VVD with a gracious concession speech announcing her
full support of Rutte and the VVD. She will remain a force
to be reckoned with, however, given her popularity among
rank-and-file VVD members and broader populist appeal on the
right side of the political spectrum. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) Contrary to expectations fueled by inaccurate
polling, members of the conservative Dutch Liberal Party
(VVD) have chosen State Secretary for Education Mark Rutte
over Minister of Immigration Rita Verdonk to lead the party
into the 2007 parliamentary elections. On May 31, VVD party
chairman Jan Van Zanen announced the results of the VVD's
first-ever internal primary showing Rutte with 51.5 percent,
Verdonk with 45.5 percent, and outsider Jenneke Veenendaal a
mere 3 percent of the vote. About 29,000 of the 40,000 VVD
members had cast their vote post or e-mail from May 1 until
May 25.


3. (SBU) Although Rutte clearly enjoyed more support than
Verdonk among the party leadership -- especially after
Verdonk's controversial handling of fellow VVD Ayaan Hirsi
Ali's nationality issue (reftels) -- Verdonk consistently
polled higher than Rutte during the campaign in media
surveys. Verdonk's popularity remains high among rank-and-
file VVD members, as well as voters further to the right of
the political spectrum. In her concession speech, however,
Verdonk squelched speculation that she might leave the VVD
by expressing full support for Rutte and describing herself
as his "running mate" -- i.e., she will hold the number two
position on the VVD electoral list -- in a joint effort to
make the VVD the largest party in Parliament. She did,
however, note that she had learned a painful lesson about
the unreliability of Dutch media polls.


4. (U) For his part, Rutte appeared visibly surprised by the
results. In his acceptance speech, he made clear his top
priority would be to heal the rifts within the VVD and began
the process of reaching out to Verdonk's supporters by
stressing that "together we will make the VVD big." Senior
VVD members echoed the theme of reconciliation and
emphasized the need for Verdonk and Rutte to work as a
"tandem." VVD minister Dekker, a Verdonk supporter,
stressed that "We will close ranks and keep everyone on
board." Several prominent VVD figures, however, could
barely hide their relief that they would not have to face
elections under the leadership of a polarizing figure like
Rita Verdonk. Defense Minister Kamp, for example, described
Mark Rutte's election as "a dream start" to the campaign.


5. (SBU) In practical terms, the next step will be for Rutte
to give up his Cabinet position to assume the leadership of
the VVD faction in parliament. In that position he will be
in a better position to influence the selection of VVD
candidates and the development of the VVD electoral
platform. Verdonk will remain in the Cabinet -- at least
for now; it is not known who will replace Rutte as State
Secretary for Education.

SIPDIS

COMMENT:
--------------


6. (SBU) The VVD party leadership overwhelmingly favored
Rutte over Verdonk because they saw him as a relatively non-
controversial, potentially unifying figure in a badly
divided party. Although young and dynamic by Dutch
standards, he lacks Verdonk's populist appeal and is
unlikely to excite an increasingly anti-establishment
electorate. Indeed, with his boyish haircut, thick glasses,
and open-necked shirt, he sometimes comes across --
unfortunately -- as a mix between current Prime Minister Jan
Pieter Balkenende and the head of the opposition Labor
Party, Wouter Bos.


7. (SBU) On the other hand, Rutte's election no doubt came
as a huge relief to VVD's coalition partners in the
Balkenende government. Media reports in recent days had
speculated that a Verdonk victory might have led quickly to
a collapse of the government. With Rutte in charge, it is
much more likely that VVD will remain in the coalition --
Verdonk's plans, of course, are always a subject of
speculation -- long enough to allow the May 2007 elections

THE HAGUE 00001236 002.2 OF 002


to proceed as planned.


8. (SBU) Rutte's first major challenge will be to reunite
and rebuild a party badly divided over the Hirsi Ali episode
and other issues. He is expected to push the VVD toward the
center of the political spectrum, both in order to pull
votes away from PvdA and D66 and to position the party to
become a credible coalition partner in the next government.
At the same time, however, Verdonk's continuing appeal on
the right -- including almost half of the voting VVD members
-- means that she remains a significant force to be reckoned
with. It also means that Rutte cannot afford to ignore the
issues that she stands for, i.e. security and integration of
Muslims.

Arnall