Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06TELAVIV940
2006-03-08 15:18:00
SECRET
Embassy Tel Aviv
Cable title:  

DANGERS OF DICHTER'S DISENGAGEMENT DEBATE

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S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 000940 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/06/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV KPAL KWBG IS ISRAELI PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS GOI INTERNAL
SUBJECT: DANGERS OF DICHTER'S DISENGAGEMENT DEBATE

Classified By: Ambassador Richard H. Jones; Reasons: 1.4 (B) and (D).

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 000940

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/06/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV KPAL KWBG IS ISRAELI PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS GOI INTERNAL
SUBJECT: DANGERS OF DICHTER'S DISENGAGEMENT DEBATE

Classified By: Ambassador Richard H. Jones; Reasons: 1.4 (B) and (D).


1. (C) Summary and comment: Former Israel Security Agency
(Shin Bet) chief and Kadima candidate Avi Dichter set off a
political firestorm on March 5 by leaking to reporters
details of what he claims are A/PM Ehud Olmert's plans for
disengagement from parts of the West Bank. Dichter said that
after the March 28 elections the GOI will evacuate a number
of isolated outposts and settlements, integrating the
settlers into the major blocs behind the separation line
barrier. These ideas mesh with current MOD plans to minimize
contact between Israelis and Palestinians in the West Bank by
constructing the barrier and separate transportation
networks. While rejecting Dichter's negative views on the
Roadmap, Olmert and his cabinet have told USG officials that
the lack of a Palestinian partner leaves them no alternative
to steps to minimize contact between Israelis and
Palestinians. In the Embassy's analysis, such steps --
coupled with threats to turn Karni and Erez into
international crossings -- run the risk of separating the
West Bank from Gaza, increasing the economic hardship of the
Palestinian population, and fostering instability. ConGen
Jerusalem septel will report on implications for the
Palestinians of Dichter's proposals. End summary and comment.

--------------
Dichter's "Disengagement II" (D2)
--------------


2. (U) According to Dichter, Israel will maintain control
over the three largest blocs -- Maale Adumim, Ariel, and Gush
Etzion -- as well as three smaller blocs -- Qarnei Shomron,
Qedumim, Ofra-Beit El, and Hebron-Qiryat Arba -- and over the
Jordan Valley. He added that the areas included in the blocs
will be unilaterally decided by Israel without input from the
Palestinians. He named several smaller settlements that
would be evacuated, including Elon Moreh, Yitzhar, Itamar,
Shiloh, Psagot, Teqoa, Nokdim, Pnei Hever, Ma'on, and Otniel.


3. (C) Dichter insisted that a West Bank disengagement would
differ from the Gaza withdrawal, because Israel would

maintain security responsibility over the evacuated areas.
He said that Israel must act unilaterally because it lacks a
Palestinian partner, a situation he claimed effectively means
the end of the Roadmap. Dichter's ideas mesh closely with
what the MOD has told emboffs repeatedly over the past year,
i.e., that the GOI is actively working to separate Israeli
and Palestinian populations in the West Bank. The MOD
describes the goal as minimizing friction between the IDF and
Palestinians -- and protecting settlers -- by completing the
separation barrier, building separate transportation
infrastructure, and replacing military personnel with
civilian contractors at the crossings. In addition, DefMin
Shaul Mofaz has long advocated "the completion of Gaza
disengagement" by transforming Erez and Karni into
international crossings and unconfirmed press reports say MOD
planners are considering suspension of all travel between
Gaza and the West Bank. Deputy National Security Adviser
Eran Etzion (protect) acknowledged that the GOI intends to
internationalize the crossings if Hamas refuses to accept the
international communities three conditions. He also asserted
that no one in the GOI is talking about, planning for, or
otherwise engaged in thinking about how to develop a moderate
Palestinian political grouping to counter Hamas.


4. (U) Dichter's remarks drew immediate criticism from
opposition parties in the run-up to the March 28 Knesset
elections. Likud Knesset leader Gideon Saar called any West
Bank disengagement a "prize to Hamas." The press claimed
that Olmert plans to barter West Bank disengagement for
international -- primarily U.S. -- recognition of new Israeli
borders incorporating the settlement blocs. Kadima candidate
and former PM Shimon Peres responded by telling reporters
that he supports the Roadmap and negotiated peace. Etzion
dismissed Dichter's remarks as an attempt to burnish his
Kadima credentials after previous comments that were at odds
with the party line.

-------------- --------------
Comment: GOI Steps Unlikely to Help Hamas Opponents
-------------- --------------


5. (S) Comment: A/PM Olmert has repeatedly told CoDels and
the Ambassador that he remains committed to the Roadmap. In
a February 26 discussion with A/S Welch, Olmert said that it
would be a mistake to withdraw from -- or to bypass -- the
Roadmap. That said, Olmert and several members of his
cabinet are clearly of the opinion that "there is no
Palestinian partner" and are committed to steps that will
ensure a Jewish majority in Israel and the areas it intends
to retain following a peace agreement. Such a strategy --
assuming Kadima wins the election -- is likely to include the
evacuation of isolated settlements in the West Bank.


6. (C) In the meantime, the GOI will continue to pursue steps
to minimize contact between Israelis and Palestinians,
especially construction of the barrier and separate
transportation routes in the West Bank. Coupled with threats
to turn Karni and Erez into international crossings, such
steps -- if implemented -- would effectively sever the few
remaining links between the West Bank and Gaza and remove
Gaza from the customs envelope. These measures would in the
GOI's view essentially return Gaza to a pre-1967 situation,
leaving responsibility for facilitation of Gaza's
international trade and humanitarian relief to Egypt. If
implemented in the form outlined by Dichter, the West Bank
disengagement/retrenchment plan answers most of Israel's
security concerns but offers little to the Palestinians.
While much could change between now and the time a new
government is formed after the March 28 elections, a GOI
request for a U.S. endorsement of such a plan should not be
ruled out.


7. (U) This message was coordinated with ConGen Jerusalem.

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