OLMERT'S SEPARATION PLAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 000695

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/16/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV KWBG IS ISRAELI PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS SETTLEMENTS
SUBJECT: OLMERT'S SEPARATION PLAN

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Gene A. Cretz for reasons 1.4 (b
) and (d)

This is a joint Embassy Tel Aviv/Consulate General Jerusalem
cable.


1. (C) Summary: On February 7, Acting Prime Minister Ehud
Olmert gave an interview in which he said that Israel is
moving toward separation from the Palestinians, and toward
defining Israel's final borders. He explained that he plans
to uphold all GOI commitments on unauthorized outposts --
presumably to the USG to remove post-March 2001 outposts. He
also remarked that Israel will keep the main settlement blocs
west of the separation barrier and the Jordan Valley, and
maintain a united Jerusalem. Palestinian and NGO contacts
opined that his plan is a continuation of Prime Minister
Ariel Sharon's unilateral disengagement plan, and that they
now expect to see accelerated construction of the barrier and
in the settlement blocs. End summary.

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Olmert Outlines His Vision
On Outposts and Settlements
--------------


2. (U) Acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert on February 7 gave
his first interview of the campaign season on Channel 2, in
which he discussed, among other topics, unauthorized outposts
and the settlement blocs. On outposts, Olmert said that he
would uphold all commitments the GOI has made -- presumably
to the USG to remove post-March 2001 outposts -- that he
would uphold the law, and that he would implement court
orders (to dismantle outposts). He remarked, however, that
he would maintain a dialogue with the settlers, probably to
avoid violent confrontations with them in future evacuations.
He defended the use of force against settlers at Amona on
February 1 by saying that the Israeli public agreed with the
GOI's behavior, and by mentioning that he had asked the
settlers to implement the demolition orders themselves, but
the settlers "replied with a categorical no."


3. (U) While not pointing out specific locations where he
expects Israel's border with the West Bank to be in the
future, Olmert asserted that Israel is moving toward a
separation from the Palestinians, and toward determining the
final borders. According to Olmert, Israel "will converge on
the main settlement blocs." He explained that he would
maintain a united Jerusalem, that the Ma'ale Adumim, Gush
Etzion, and Ariel blocs are all or will be a "part of the
State of Israel," and that giving up the Jordan Valley would
be irresponsible. Olmert fell short of calling his vision
another unilateral disengagement, however, because he has not
"given up on the road map." He insisted that the
Palestinians must fulfill their road map obligations to stop
terrorism, "foster a democratic processes, and maintain full
transparency in their dealings."

--------------
Olmert Continuing Sharon's Legacy?
--------------


4. (C) Khaled Elgindy, policy advisor for the PLO's
Negotiations Support Unit, told ConGen poloff February 13
that Olmert's plan is not new; it is a continuation of Prime
Minister Ariel Sharon's unilateral disengagement plan that
will not be acceptable to the Palestinians. He complimented
Secretary Rice's recent statements that any future

SIPDIS
determination of final borders between Israel and the West
Bank will need to be reached by bilateral negotiations.
Elgindy also commented hopefully that since Olmert does not
have a military background, and was once mayor of Jerusalem,
he could be expected to be more flexible than either Ehud
Barak or Sharon, and that he would have a better
understanding of the centrality of Jerusalem for the
Palestinian people. (Note: As an aside, Elgindy questioned
why the GOI did not evacuate all the settlers from Amona or
Hebron. He indicated that any future evacuations of outposts
or settlements would face stiff resistance from settlers, who
have promised to at least double the amount of protestors.
He also opined that evacuations would be better timed after
the March 28 elections, since the evacuations may be viewed
as electioneering on Olmert's part, and may provide
ammunition to right-wing parties like Likud. End note.)


5. (C) Jessica Montell, executive director of B'tselem, told
ConGen poloff on February 13 that she expects the GOI to
accelerate construction of the separation barrier and
construction in settlements west of the barrier -- Ma'ale
Adumim, Modi'in Illit, Ariel, and Gush Etzion blocs. She
said that a unilateral decision regarding Ariel will be hard
for Palestinians to digest because of its geopolitical
significance: Ariel is another location which can
effectively divide the West Bank. She also pointed out that
one area of concern is the Jordan Valley, which has a small
population and represents nearly one-third of the West Bank
total land, but is de facto cut off from the rest of the West
Bank. She claimed that the IDF imposes severe restrictions
on the movement of Palestinians to the Jordan Valley by
forbidding their entry and only allowing entry to those
Palestinians listed as residents of the area. Montell added
that many Palestinians who reside outside of the Jordan
Valley but have farmland there sometimes have trouble
accessing it because of checkpoints and other obstacles to
movement.


6. (C) Dror Etkes, settlement watch coordinator for Peace
Now, told ConGen poloff that Olmert announced his plan on
February 7 to turn the Israeli elections into a de facto
referendum on disengagement, which Sharon never held during
Gaza disengagement. He opined that Olmert does not want to
say too much now in order to avoid scaring away potential
voters who may swing between him and the Likud party. Etkes
said he is uncertain about the future, adding that the GOI
may get rid of outposts altogether, and may be forced to deal
with the issue sooner than it wants.

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