Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06TELAVIV676
2006-02-15 04:48:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tel Aviv
Cable title:  

ISRAELI MOD POLDIR GILAD DISCUSSES THE AMA AND THE

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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 000676 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/13/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV KPAL KWBG RS IR IS ISRAELI PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS GOI EXTERNAL
SUBJECT: ISRAELI MOD POLDIR GILAD DISCUSSES THE AMA AND THE
FUTURE OF THE PA

REF: TEL AVIV 0497

Classified By: Ambassador Richard H. Jones; Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 000676

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/13/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV KPAL KWBG RS IR IS ISRAELI PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS GOI EXTERNAL
SUBJECT: ISRAELI MOD POLDIR GILAD DISCUSSES THE AMA AND THE
FUTURE OF THE PA

REF: TEL AVIV 0497

Classified By: Ambassador Richard H. Jones; Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).


1. (C) Summary: In a meeting on February 13, Israeli MOD
Political Director Amos Gilad agreed with the Ambassador that
progress should be made on as many AMA issues as possible
before Hamas assumes control of the Palestinian Authority,
but expressed concern about what he termed the lack of a
Palestinian partner. Gilad also agreed that the GOI would
provide greater details concerning its complaints about the
Rafah border crossing to the EU-Border Assistance Mission.
Contrary to public positions of some GOI officials, he
praised Egypt's actions to prevent smuggling along the
Philadelphi corridor. He predicted that PA President Mahmud
Abbas will relinquish control of the PA security services,
cautioned against providing international advisers to Abbas,
and said that former Civil Affairs Minister Muhammad Dahlan
is losing power. Gilad also mentioned that Russian Defense
Minister Sergey Ivanov had told DefMin Shaul Mofaz that the
Iranians are pursuing nuclear weapons and that Russia is
skeptical that sanctions will stop them. End summary.

--------------
Making Progress on Rafah and other AMA Issues
--------------


2. (C) The Ambassador stressed the importance of moving
forward with as many Agreement on Movement and Access (AMA)
issues as possible before a new Hamas-led government assumes
power in the PA. He said that the Consul General had raised
the GOI's complaints about implementation of the Rafah
agreements (reftel) directly with the PA. U.S. Security
Coordinator LTG Dayton had also discussed Israeli concerns
with EU-BAM chief MG Pietro Pistolese. Gilad agreed with
this approach, noting that MOD Adviser BG Baruch Spiegel
would meet with Pistolese later that day to discuss Rafah in
greater detail. At the Ambassador's urging, Gilad agreed to
instruct Spiegel to provide the EU-BAM and PA with as many
details of the complaints as possible. USSC Chief of Staff

Col. Dugger added that the Security Working Group (SWG) will
convene on February 22. Gilad emphasized the importance of
the SWG's developing a list of prohibited items.


3. (C) The Ambassador undertook to examine with USAID the
possibility of returning a U.S. technical adviser to Rafah or
Kerem Shalom. Gilad suggested a follow-up meeting with the
Ambassador during the week of February 19.


4. (C) The Ambassador asked whether the GOI has had any
contact with the PA on AMA issues. Gilad replied that
"bilaterally we can't do anything" because of the victory by
Hamas in PLC elections. He cautioned that Hamas will "take
over quickly" after the PLC convenes on February 18, a
situation he said will significantly increase the
difficulties of implementing AMA issues. He repeated his
previously-stated view that the November 15 agreements "had
no partners."

-------------- --------------
Gilad's Views of the PA and Praise for the Egyptians
-------------- --------------


5. (C) Gilad predicted that President Abbas will relinquish
control of the PA security forces to the new PA government in
the hopes that Hamas will prove incapable of maintaining
order. In his analysis, this plan is doomed to failure and
could lead Abbas to resign and be replaced by a member of
Hamas.


6. (C) Gilad claimed that former PA Civil Affairs Minister
Dahlan is "very isolated and weak," noting that Dahlan had
lost the fight for leadership of Fatah's caucus in the PLC to
Azzam Al-Ahmad, an old-guard member supported by President
Abbas, and has only one powerful ally -- Rashid Abu Shabak --
on his side. Gilad urged the international community not to
place too much faith in what Dahlan tells them, commenting
that "Dahlan is like drugs; what he tells you sounds better
than reality."


7. (C) Gilad said that DefMin Mofaz will discuss the future
of the PA with President Hosni Mubarak, DefMin Mohamed
Tantawi, and EGIS chief Omar Soliman when he travels to Cairo
on February 14. Gilad praised the Egyptian Border Guards for
interdicting smugglers and weapons along the Philadelphi
corridor. He advocated stronger Israeli ties with Egypt and
Jordan, expressing concern that the Egyptians have withdrawn
almost all of their advisers from Gaza.
--------------
Future of the USSC
--------------


8. (C) Gilad was skeptical that the Palestinians would be
able to improve the security situation in the areas under
their control. He claimed that EU Middle East envoy Marc
Otte had told him that the Europeans have frozen the EU-COPPS
program. Referring to the Quartet's meeting on January 30,
the Ambassador noted that the USSC still has a valuable role
to play in the region. Col. Dugger described ongoing
planning that could strengthen the role of both the
Palestinian National Security Council and President Abbas.
Gilad was pessimistic that Abbas would ever exercise real
control over the PA forces. He warned that international
advisers would be unsuccessful in convincing Abbas to take
necessary steps and that such a failure could embarrass the
international community.
-------------- -
Russian-Israeli DefMins Discuss Iran and Hamas
-------------- -


9. (C) According to Gilad, Russian DefMin Ivanov met with
Mofaz at the recent NATO summit and told him candidly that
Russia has "no doubt" that Iran is pursuing a nuclear weapons
program. Ivanov reportedly denied any Russian involvement in
the program and continued to express doubt about the efficacy
of sanctions. Gilad said the Russians had also said they
want to "convince Hamas" to accept the international
community's conditions on forming a PA government. The
Ambassador emphasized that the USG remains committed to the
three conditions issued by the Quartet. Gilad claimed that
Ivanov criticized U.S. democratization initiatives for
destabilizing the region.

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