ISRAELI REACTTION TO PRESIDENT BUSH'S STATEMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TEL AVIV 000638

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/IPA (MAHER)
PENTAGON FOR OSD ISRAEL DESK OFFICER (ANDERSON)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/10/2016
TAGS: PREL PINR MARR MASS IS ISRAEL RELATIONS MILITARY RELATIONS
SUBJECT: ISRAELI REACTTION TO PRESIDENT BUSH'S STATEMENT
THAT THE U.S. WILL DEFEND ISRAEL

Classified By: Ambassador Richard H. Jones. Reasons: 1.4 (b, d).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Over the past week, GOI officials have commented
without solicitation on President Bush's February 2 remarks
to Reuters to the effect that the U.S. would defend Israel in
a crisis with Iran, saying Israel welcomes America's support,
but is prepared to defend itself. These comments reflect a
long-held Israeli principle that Israel retains the right to
defend itself, with or without the approval of its friends,
third countries, and international organizations. They also
appear designed to suggest that nobody in the GOI is pressing
to formalize a defense commitment between the U.S. and
Israel. President Bush's remarks have elicited Israeli media
speculation that the U.S. and Israel are secretly
contemplating formal security guarantees between the two
countries. The media coverage taps into general anxiety
about the existential threat Iran poses to Israel, and
reflects the average Israeli's expectation that the U.S.
would probably support Israel materially and morally if it
were attacked, as it has in the past. END SUMMARY.

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A "DEFENSE UMBRELLA" FOR ISRAEL?
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2. (SBU) Israeli government officials and opinion makers over
the last week have been commenting privately and publicly on
President Bush's comments to Reuters -- made in the context
of a discussion on Iran -- that in a crisis, the United
States would "rise to Israel's defense" militarily. Aluf
Ben, a senior diplomatic correspondent for the national
newspaper "Ha'aretz," (considered Israel's newspaper of
record with a nationwide circulation of 70,000 and a globally
accessed website) has been the most forward leaning,
surmising from President Bush's remarks and comments from
Alternate Prime Minister Olmert that the U.S. and Israel are
on the verge of unveiling a formal defense pact. In his
February 8 piece entitled, "The Umbrella and Its
Circumstances," Ben characterized President Bush's remarks as
"a milestone in the relationship between Washington and
Jerusalem," and "a change in the (Bush) administration's
policy." Ben speculated that the details of the so-called
"defense umbrella" remain to be hammered out, and suggested
that, in the meantime, they serve as "an expression of
support for the U.S. administration('s) favorite candidate
(in the March national elections),Olmert."

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NO FORMAL SECURITY GUARANTEES EXIST
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3. (C) Post is not aware of any treaty or formal agreement
between the U.S. and Israel that commits one country to the
defense of the other. In June 1993, then Secretary of State
Warren Christopher declared that the U.S. would consider
offering Israel unspecified "security guarantees" --
including the placement of U.S. troops between Israeli and
Syrian lines -- were Israel to withdraw from the Golan
Heights, which it has never done. The closest form of a
security guarantee to post's knowledge is the Aide Memoire
presented in 1957 by then Secretary of State John Foster
Dulles to Israeli Ambassador Abba Eban promising that the
U.S. would:

(A) "use its best efforts to help assure" that a UN Emergency
Force (UNEF),placed in Gaza, would prevent Gaza from serving
as a source of armed infiltration of Israel; and

(B) "secure general recognition" of Israel's right to free
passage through the Straits of Tiran.

Subsequently, Egypt forced UNEF to vacate Gaza and the Sinai,
and itself moved against the Straits of Tiran.


4. (C) While the U.S. and Israel have shared an informal
understanding that the U.S. would assist Israel in time of
need, the Israelis have always implied that the only
assistance they would request from the U.S. would be moral
and material support (including defense materiel and
logistics). The Israelis have traditionally asserted that
they will defend themselves and will not ask U.S. soldiers to
fight and possibly die on their behalf. Related to this is a
long-standing principle that Israel reserves the right to
defend itself, and in doing so, will act in its own
interests. It follows that some Israelis would likely view a
formal security arrangement skeptically as they would feel
that it ties their hands by denying them the ability to act
on their own initiative. The history of Israel acting on its
own -- even against the stated concerns of the U.S. -- is
full of examples, the two most vivid ones being Israel's 1956
takeover of the Suez with French and British support, and the
Israeli airstrike against Iraq's Osirak nuclear reactor in

1981. Most recently, in April 2004, Prime Minister Sharon
wrote in a letter to President Bush that, "Israel must
preserve its capability to protect itself and deter its
enemies, and we thus retain our right to defend ourselves
against terrorism and to take actions against terrorist
organizations."

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U.S. SUPPORT FOR ISRAEL IS CONSIDERABLE
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5. (U) Formal documents and activities testify to an
unusually close political-military relationship and serve to
bolster the U.S. and Israel's capabilities to defend each
other's interests. In an April 2004 letter to Prime Minister
Sharon, President Bush wrote, "The United States reiterates
its steadfast commitment to Israel's security, including
secure, defensible borders, and to preserve and strengthen
Israel's capability to deter and defend itself, by itself,
against any threat or possible combination of threats. The
United States is strongly committed to Israel's security and
well-being as a Jewish state." Other examples include:

(A) Joint exercises and maneuvers, and the significant,
annual commitment of U.S. military assistance to Israel
designed to maintain Israel's "Qualitative Military Edge"
over potential adversaries. The current level of annual U.S.
military assistance to Israel totals almost USD 2.4 billion.

(B) In late 1990, the U.S. deployed Patriot missiles in
Israel to intercept anticipated Iraqi SCUD missile launches
during Operations Desert Shield and Desert Storm.

(C) In September 1989, then Israeli Defense Minister Rabin
and Secretary of Defense Cheney signed an agreement that
makes it possible for Israel to lease U.S. military equipment.

(D) In March 1988, then Israeli Prime Minister Shamir signed
an agreement designating Israel as "a major non-NATO ally of
the U.S."

(E) In May 1986, Israel and the U.S. signed a classified
agreement on Israel's participation in Strategic Defense
Initiative research, which included the Arrow missile project
(an anti-missile system that the U.S. has been funding and
helping Israel to develop for more than a decade).

(F) In November 1983, Israel and the U.S. signed an agreement
initiating annual meetings of the Joint Political-Military
Group (JPMG) and Joint Security Assistance Planning (JSAP)
program. The JPMG and JSAP serve to coordinate the U.S. and
Israel's security policy and ensure that U.S. military
assistance to Israel is in keeping with our shared goals in
the political-military sphere.

(G) In November 1982, then Secretary of Defense Weinberger
and Defense Minister Ariel Sharon signed a Memorandum of
Understanding establishing a framework for continued
consultation and cooperation to enhance the national security
of both countries.

(H) The United States has supported the Multinational Force
and Observers (MFO),positioned between Egypt and Israel,
since that peacekeeping operation's creation in August 1981.

(I) President Nixon's decision to rush military supplies to
Israel during the height of the 1973 Yom Kippur War.

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GOI OFFICIALS ASSERT ISRAEL WILL DEFEND ITSELF
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6. (C) Perhaps in response to the media reaction, some GOI
officials have felt it necessary to clarify Israel's view on
the President's statement and the issue of a U.S. defense
commitment. In a February 8 meeting with the Ambassador
(septel),Israeli MOD Director General Jacob Toren in an
unsolicited observation said that "Israel intends to fight
for itself. We do not ask U.S. troops to fight for us. This
was true even in the dark days of the Yom Kippur War." In a
meeting with the Ambassador on February 8 (septel),Likud
Member of the Knesset and former Deputy Defense Minister Zeev
Boim remarked that President Bush's declaration to provide a
defensive umbrella to Israel if it were attacked "shows how
close we are," but left the issue at that. Alternate PM
Olmert told the Ambassador February 9 he "respected" the
President's statement.

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MOST ISRAELIS BELIEVE THE U.S. WOULD HELP IN A CRISIS
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7. (U) To the best of post's knowledge, no Israeli leader has
voiced any expectation, or desire for, the U.S. to dispatch
troops to defend Israel in the event of an attack. Public
awareness exists on both sides of the Atlantic, however, that
Israel is not an expendable ally, and the average Israeli
probably believes that the U.S. would not let Israel be
defeated in the event it were attacked. It is probably less
clear how they would wish the U.S. to assist Israel, although
the U.S. has sent emergency shipments of military aid to
Israel in the past (1967 and 1973),has deployed defensive
weapons in Israel (1991),and maintains significant amounts
and varieties of prepositioned materiel in Israel that could
be devoted to Israel's defense. Average Israelis at a
minimum probably believe the U.S. would support Israel in at
least two ways -- by defending Israel's right to defend
itself in the court of international opinion, and by
providing maximum logistical and equipment support.

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