Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06TELAVIV4897
2006-12-21 09:26:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tel Aviv
Cable title:  

FORMER PM BARAK DISCUSSES REGIONAL CHALLENGES WITH

Tags:  PREL MOPS KPAL IZ IR US RU CH IN 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TEL AVIV 004897 

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DEPT FOR NEA AND H

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/20/2016
TAGS: PREL MOPS KPAL IZ IR US RU CH IN
SUBJECT: FORMER PM BARAK DISCUSSES REGIONAL CHALLENGES WITH
CODEL MCCAIN


Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Gene A. Cretz. Reason 1.4 (B/D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TEL AVIV 004897

SIPDIS

CODEL
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA AND H

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/20/2016
TAGS: PREL MOPS KPAL IZ IR US RU CH IN
SUBJECT: FORMER PM BARAK DISCUSSES REGIONAL CHALLENGES WITH
CODEL MCCAIN


Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Gene A. Cretz. Reason 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) Summary: Senators John McCain (AZ),Joe Lieberman
(CT),Susan Collins (ME) and John Thune (SD),as well as
Representative Mark Kirk (IL) met with former Prime Minister
Ehud Barak on December 17 to discuss developments in
Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, Lebanon and the Palestinian
Authority. Barak criticized the "Pavlovian" response of the
current Israeli government to the challenge posed by
Hizballah, and offered ideas for how the U.S. might respond
to the strategic challenge posed by Iran. He recommended
paying "painful prices" to enlist the support of Russia and
China against Iran and the broader challenge of international
terrorism. End Summary.

--------------
Iraq
--------------


2. (C) Senator McCain briefed Barak on the Codel's recent
trip to Iraq and Afghanistan and his assessment that things
are not going well. "If the situation in Iraq does not
change in three to six months, the American people will
demand a withdrawal," McCain assessed. Barak, who recalled
that he had been a supporter of the war, responded that if
America fails in Iraq, it will ripple beyond the Middle East.
Barak offered that "rebalancing the (Iraqi) constitution"
followed by reconfiguring U.S. forces as a rapid deployment
force concentrated in the Western Desert would be how he
would proceed in Iraq. He said he would be worried about
leaving hundreds of U.S. forces intermingled as advisers
among Iraqi forces.

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Iran
--------------


3. (C) Barak noted that a number of Sunni Arabs had confided
to him that they see Israel as the only strategic
counterweight to Iran in the region. Commenting on the
Baker-Hamilton Iraq Study Group's report, Barak agreed that
while it might be worthwhile to discuss technical matters
pertaining to border control with Iran and Syria or to
maintain a channel of communication with them, he disagreed

that dialogue with Iran and Syria constituted a strategy.
"If you negotiate with them, you will negotiate the terms of
defeat," Barak concluded.


4. (C) Senator McCain asked what Barak would do if Iran
could not be prevented from obtaining nuclear weapons. Barak
said this situation would end the nonproliferation regime and
lead to a nuclear arms race in the region. "Some states will
develop one, or buy these weapons. In ten years, terrorists
will have devices that they can plant in containers destined
for Israel, Europe or the U.S." Barak discussed the
importance of diplomacy, sanctions and port security, but
acknowledged that these tools "probably won't suffice" to
counter the Iranian nuclear threat. Creating an effective
system of deterrence would be much more delicate, in Barak's
view: "Iran and the DPRK must know in advance what will
happen if they pursue this option."


5. (C) Representative Kirk noted Iran's dependence on
refined gasoline and asked whether a "quarantine of the
willing" might constrain Iran. Barak affirmed the importance
of European, Russian, Chinese and Indian support. He mused
that the attempt to form this coalition might prompt the
Iranians to close the Straits of Hormuz, an action that would
actually serve to galvanize such a coalition. In response to
a question, Barak did not think that Israeli military
training operations in the Indian Ocean would be a good move.

--------------
Afghanistan
--------------


6. (C) Senator McCain described the military situation in
Afghanistan and along its borders with Pakistan. The Senator
shared his concern that there are insufficient numbers of
coalition troops in Afghanistan, and that the self-imposed
restrictions of several contributors regarding action their
forces could take rendered their contribution "almost
worthless." Barak feared the possibility that nuclear

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weapons could get into the hands of extremists in Pakistan.
Senator McCain affirmed that the animosity between Karzai and
Musharraf was very problematic, as was the Pakistani
president's agreement to a safehaven in Waziristan, which
would negatively affect coalition action against the Taliban
and Al-Qaeda.

--------------
Importance of Russia/China
--------------


7. (C) To win the war on terror and proliferation of nuclear
weapons to rogue states, Barak assessed that a paradigm shift
would be required in order to secure meaningful sanctions.
Barak opined that Russia and China are aware of the risks of
nuclear proliferation, but both countries share a strategic
interest in seeing the U.S. humbled in what they perceive as
efforts to "go it alone." "The U.S. needs Russia, China and
India as partners and may have to pay a painful price for
their support," Barak continued. To achieve sufficient
"intimacy" with Russia, the U.S. would have to curtail its
criticism of Russian policy toward Chechnya. Regarding
China, Barak added that "Taiwan was not worth the price of
defeating world terror." He also believed that the U.S.
might have to forego severely pressuring China on economic
concessions as well.

--------------
Palestinian Authority
--------------


8. (C) Senator McCain mentioned that President Abbas had
indicated that he sought funding quickly and that the
Iranians are providing significant funds to Hamas. McCain
indicated that if the GOI supported such a request, that
would be important to know. Barak commented that President
Abbas had "woken up very late" to the challenge posed by
Hamas, a movement that is perceived as genuine -- and less
corrupt than Fatah -- within Palestinian society. He thought
it important that no Israeli fingerprints appear on any
assistance to Abbas; overt Israeli backing would work against
Abbas. Senator Collins asked if there was any way to direct
withheld tax revenue to Abbas, but not to Hamas. Barak
confided that he did not know the legal issues that might be
involved.


9. (C) Senator Thune asked Barak if he saw a way for the
peace process to get back on track. Barak responded that
despite current disillusionment, the Israeli body politic
"from the middle of Meretz to the middle of the Likud
parties" now supported a two-state solution. The Palestinian
side, in Barak's view, "does not want peace." Even Abbas,
Barak recollected with obvious bitterness, found a way to
duck out of the 2000 Camp David negotiations "at the critical
moment."

--------------
Lebanon
--------------


10. (C) Responding to questions about the Hizballah threat
posed by Senator Lieberman and Senator McCain, Barak
explained that the recent Lebanon War results fell short of
Israeli expectations because the GOI had reacted to Hizballah
provocation without thinking through its strategy or planning
for going to war: "Just because (a military response) is
justifiable and legitimate does not mean it is clever!" He
refrained from offering an operational critique of the war,
but recalled that his government used to retaliate against
Hizballah and the "puppet government" and claimed that this
strategy had been effective and remained relevant. Barak
said he was not concerned about the IDF's ability to turn
itself around, but he was concerned that the perceptions of
Israel's neighbors would not shift, especially Syria. All
the same, Barak said he was not worried about the possibility
that Hizballah could overthrow the current Lebanese
government: "Lebanon is not as critical as Iran, Iraq and
Afghanistan."

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