AVIGDOR LIEBERMAN'S THOUGHTS ON PALESTINIAN ISSUES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TEL AVIV 004730

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/04/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR IS KPAL IR EG CY JO
SUBJECT: AVIGDOR LIEBERMAN'S THOUGHTS ON PALESTINIAN ISSUES

REF: A. TEL AVIV 4303

B. TEL AVIV 4256

Classified By: Ambassador Richard H. Jones. Reason 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) Summary: The Ambassador and DAPNSA Elliott Abrams
discussed Israeli-Palestinian relations with Minister for
Strategic Threats Avigdor Lieberman (Yisrael Beiteinu) on
November 29. Lieberman had requested the meeting to share
his latest thinking on the Palestinian question ahead of his
planned December 8-11 visit to Washington, where he plans to
participate in a Brookings (Saban Center) panel with Labor MK
Ami Ayalon on Israel's relations with its neighbors and to
consult with USG officials. Lieberman opened the
conversation by acknowledging that his views on Palestinian
matters differed from those of "mainstream Israelis" on
issues such as land swaps and the separation of Arab and
Jewish populations, but he sought to disabuse U.S.
interlocutors of some of the cruder portrayals of his policy
prescriptions by discussing his ideas in greater detail than
he has in the past (reftels). Lieberman said he remains
convinced that time is not in Israel's favor, and said he
would urge PM Olmert to focus first on ameliorating the
economic situation in the West Bank by endorsing a large
program of infrastructure improvements. He also called for
the need for a comprehensive "package deal" for the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict, including a "compromise" on
Jerusalem, but questioned prospects for Gaza. Lieberman said
that he would advocate the abandonment of all isolated
settlements, including the one in which he resides, as part
of a settlement. End Summary.

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Nature of the Conflict and the Need for Partition
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2. (C) Lieberman claimed that the Israeli-Palestinian
conflict is not a product of occupation, settlements or even
territory. Rather, in his view, it is the result of friction
between two nations that speak different languages and
practice different religions, just as the case with the
Basques in Spain or among different groups in the former
Yugoslavia. Having just met the Cypriot ambassador,
Lieberman remarked that the Government of Cyprus was
concerned by Lieberman's frequent mention of the current,
divided status of Cyprus as a model for Israeli-Palestinian
peacemaking. Lieberman compared the current "stability" of
Cyprus to the pre-1974 period, which, he said, resembled the
current Israeli-Palestinian predicament. He mentioned the
1947 UN Partition Plan -- coincidentally adopted 59 years ago
that day -- as evidence of historical thinking similar to his
on the need to separate the Jewish and Arab populations.

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What Kind of Palestinian State?
--------------


3. (C) Abrams asked whether Lieberman thought a Palestinian
state was in Israel's interest. Lieberman concurred, and
said that he had even advocated the idea of providing some
Israeli territory, including Arab towns like Umm Al-Fahm, to
a Palestinian "authority." Later in the conversation,
Lieberman added, "Jordanian, Israeli, U.S. and Palestinian
partners could ensure a strong administration/authority in
Judea and Samaria." Abrams noted that currently such a
constellation supports President Abbas. Digging his dagger
of distaste for Abbas a little deeper than in previous
conversations (ref B),Lieberman countered, "No one trusts
Abu Mazen in Israel -- not even the Prime Minister. Only
because his (Olmert's) political situation is so bad does
Olmert speak any good of Abu Mazen. The Jordanians, too,
have doubts about the possibility of working with Abu Mazen.
Even Fatah is against him."

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Egypt and Gaza: Ascendancy of the Islamists
--------------


4. (C) The Ambassador asked about the link between Gaza and
the West Bank. Lieberman replied that the Palestinians in
the West Bank were "less Islamic" than those in Gaza, and
were more willing to seize the chance to improve their lives.
Lieberman questioned whether one Palestinian country was a
good solution for the future. He said he was perplexed by
what he viewed as Egypt's tough talk but "suicidal" behavior
vis--vis Islamists in Egypt and Gaza. Lieberman argued that
the Muslim Brothers in Egypt and Hamas in Gaza had succeeded
because of their use of their da'wa social system of support
for the poor -- which contrasted starkly with the corruption
of Egyptian and PA authorities. Lieberman added that Israel
is on the front lines with an irrational "world jihad
movement" that is concerned more with the war of ideas, not
territory. "The (Hamas-led) PA is part of this movement."
Lieberman also worried about the impact of a possible U.S.
withdrawal from Iraq, which could lead to the creation of a
Shi'a arc from Iran to Syria and Lebanon.

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Land Swaps, Mixed Cities, and Jerusalem
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5. (C) In response to Abrams' questions, Lieberman
acknowledged that Israeli Arabs were not in favor of land
swap arrangements involving mostly Arab areas within Israel's
1967 lines. Palestinians in the West Bank, however, favored
his ideas, Lieberman claimed, but were publicly silent on
their views of such a swap. Lieberman went on to say that
some Israeli Arabs want to destroy the Israeli state, but he
also said that the populations of mixed cities, such as
Jaffa, Acco and Lod, would remain in Israel. Making
analogies to loyal Jewish populations living in the U.S. and
Morocco, Lieberman left the impression that he believed
Israeli Arabs in these mixed Israeli cities were more loyal
to the Israeli state than those living in mostly Arab cities
adjacent to Palestinian areas, whom he accused of supporting
Hizballah during the recent conflict in Lebanon. Lieberman
said that there is "room for discussion" on the subject of
Jerusalem, provided there is a "package deal" approach to a
settlement with the Palestinians. In response to the
Ambassador's question, he said that a "compromise" on
Jerusalem would have to be part of a future package.

-------------- --------------
Disagreement on Disengagement and Unilateral Convergence
-------------- --------------


6. (C) Lieberman said he disagreed with Sharon's
disengagement plan, as it contributed to the creation of a
"homogeneous Palestinian state without Jews" without
addressing the situation in Israel. "Israel as a binational
state with a 20-30 percent Arab minority cannot work. A two
state solution for Jews and Arabs cannot mean one and a half
states for the Arabs and half a state for the Jews."
Lieberman also opposed Olmert for failing to consult with
Jordan before proposing his concepts of unilateral
convergence/realignment.

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Settlements
--------------


7. (C) Abrams asked whether Lieberman believed Jews should
stay in the West Bank in the context of a permanent status
agreement. Pointing to a large aerial photograph of his own
settlement of Nokdim, which is situated close to Herod's
castle in the outskirts of Bethlehem, Lieberman replied, "I
would be evacuated." "There would be too much friction (if
settlements like his remained). And some Jews want to
provoke conflict," Lieberman continued. He also noted that
polls show that some seventy percent of Israelis support
land/population swaps and removal of settlements. Lieberman
saw no reason why evacuated settlements on the West Bank
could not be transferred to Palestinians -- in the context of
package deal.

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Focus on the West Bank; Negative on Abbas;
Favors "Young Fatah"
--------------


8. (C) Lieberman argued that the West Bank should be the
focus of Israeli and international attention, as there is
greater chance for success there than in Gaza. He asserted
that Western-educated Palestinians there were "ready to fight
Hamas," and urged us to "find the right partners in Judea and
Samaria." He called President Abbas "weak, unpopular -- good
for declarations, but can't deliver the goods." Furthermore,
in Lieberman's view, "young Fatah members hate him and see
him as an obstacle to power." He maintained that there is a
cadre of such members, many who grew up in Europe, who could
be partners.


9. (C) Abrams asked Lieberman what he would want to see from
the Palestinian partner. Lieberman did not spell out his
views. Instead, he replied "we must agree with you, the
U.S., on this. It is impossible to continue with Abu Mazen."
The Ambassador asked Lieberman what kind of negotiation
process he envisioned? Lieberman stressed the importance of
Jordanian support, and said he would like to see a great deal
of international financial support for infrastructure
projects that would provide jobs to Palestinians in the West
Bank.

-------------- ---
Public Works for Palestinians: Sewage Treatment
-------------- ---


10. (C) Lieberman said that Israel had failed to provide
Palestinians with opportunities to work in the West Bank, and
suggested that Israel should provide thousands of jobs to
Palestinians. He provided a $1.7 billion list of
infrastructure priorities (faxed to NEA/IPA) that the
international community could support, and highlighted the
importance -- for Palestinians and Israelis -- of treating
the wastewater in the Kedron Valley. (Note: Many of the
projects listed by Lieberman are for public roads likely
intended to separate the Palestinian and Israeli populations
in the West Bank. End Note.) He argued that donors should
begin to execute these projects as soon as possible; they
should not be held back as carrots in negotiations but used
as a tool to improve the climate for negotiations.

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The Way Ahead
--------------


11. (C) In an exchange of views on the role of democracy in
the Middle East, Abrams argued that some Arab populations
were literate and enjoyed a relatively high standard of
living, but lacked democracy as a means of promoting change.
Lieberman argued against pressing forward with democracy in
the Middle East so long as Islamists maintain their da'wa
systems that give them an unfair advantage over secular
parties. Lieberman asked Abrams for the U.S. vision of the
way ahead. Abrams replied that the Roadmap remains the
anchor, but we are asking the Government of Israel what it is
they want to do? Abrams asked what Lieberman thought could
be achieved in the next two years? Lieberman responded,
"Palestinians and Israelis do not believe in the Roadmap."
However, he acknowledged that they were reluctant to abandon
it publicly until they knew what would replace it. He said
he would try to get PM Olmert to adopt his ideas, which he
would broach with him during the week preceding his December
8-11 visit to the U.S.


12. (U) This message was cleared by DAPNSA Elliott Abrams.

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