CODEL WARNER'S MEETING WITH ISRAELI DEFMIN PERETZ

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TEL AVIV 004042

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA, NEA/IPA, PM
PENTAGON FOR OSD ISRAEL DESK (ANDERSON)
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JOINT STAFF FOR J-5
HQ USEUCOM FOR ECJ5-E (KLOTHE)
H PASS TO SENATE ARMED SERVICES COMMITTEE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/12/2016
TAGS: PREL PTER MASS PGOV OREP KWBG LE IR SY IS
SUBJECT: CODEL WARNER'S MEETING WITH ISRAELI DEFMIN PERETZ
FOCUSES ON WAR WITH HIZBALLAH, MISSILE DEFENSE

REF: A. TEL AVIV 3909

B. TEL AVIV 4001

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Gene A. Cretz.
Reason: 1.4 (b) (d)

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) CODEL Warner's October 3 meeting with Israel Defense
Minister Amir Peretz focused on lessons learned from Israel's
war with Hizballah in southern Lebanon, and missile defense.
(Reftels report on the CODEL's meetings with Prime Minister
Olmert and Foreign Minister Livni.) Accompanied by MOD
Director General Gabi Ashkenazi (MGEN, Res.),MOD POL-MIL
Bureau Head Amos Gilad (MGEN, Res.) and Military Advisor BGEN
Eitan Dangot, Peretz expressed thanks for U.S. support for
Israel during the war in Lebanon, stressing that Israeli
soldiers "came out winners," and that Hizballah learned a
hard lesson. Peretz acknowledged, however, that Israeli
society is divided over Israel's performance during the war,
and that the war has not resolved what Israel sees as the
problem of having to work with "sovereign but irresponsible"
neighbors (e.g., in his view, Lebanon and the Palestinian
Authority.)


2. (C) After the DefMin departed for a ceremony he was
required to attend, MOD DG Ashkenazi reviewed the Israeli
MOD's current thinking on missile defense, noting that the
MOD plans to conduct a study over the next two months and
recommend a way forward on countering the short-range
missile/rocket threat. Ashkenazi said that Israel is
considering laser-based missile defense systems of the kind
researched jointly by the U.S. and Israel, and is also
working on its own kinetic missile defense system. The CODEL
requested to be informed of the results of the MOD study, and
indicated an interest in revisiting joint research on
chemical laser-based missile defense systems as possible
solutions to the threats posed to Israel by Katyusha and
Kassam rockets. END SUMMARY.

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PERETZ THANKS THE U.S. FOR SUPPORT
--------------


3. (C) Peretz opened the meeting by expressing thanks for
America's support for Israel in its war with Hizballah:
"Israel owes much to the U.S. for its support. I want to
thank the Ambassador, your embassy, your military
representatives, and General Dayton. Israel recognizes that
there would be no military support, if there were no
political support." Peretz added that he appreciated the
USG's approach to the Middle East that views it as one
region, observing that events in one part of the region
affect events elsewhere.

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PERETZ ON THE WAR WITH HIZBALLAH
--------------


4. (C) Peretz said that there is no doubt that Hizballah paid
a heavy price in its war with Israel. Hizballah will
consider more seriously whether to attack Israel again.
Alluding to the criticism he and the IDF have faced on how
the war was managed, Peretz said that Israel, like the U.S.
and other democracies, has the tendency to view events either
as glasses half full, or half empty: "This is the weakness
of democracy, but we prefer it to any other kind of regime."
It was impossible, he stressed, to allow Hizballah to take
Israeli soldiers hostage and leave the situation in a
deadlock.


5. (C) Comparing Lebanese PM Siniora with Palestinian
Authority (PA) President Abbas, Peretz suggested that both
leaders are weak and refuse to be held accountable for the
actions of their peoples. Peretz recalled that the town he
was mayor of, Sderot, had been hit numerous times by Kassam
rockets launched from the Gaza Strip. Each time a rocket was
launched, the IDF sought to strike its launcher. When
confronted with this situation, Peretz claimed that Abbas
blamed Hamas for the launches. Hamas, the DefMin said, would
then blame the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, which would then
finger another group. Peretz said that as a result of this,
Israel agreed only to hit missile launchers. Switching to
the war in Lebanon, he said that Israel faced the same
situation there: PM Siniora controlled Beirut, Hizballah
launched its rockets, and Siniora subsequently denied
responsibility. "At last," the DefMin stressed, "Everyone
understands the connection between sovereignty and
responsibility."


6. (C) Responding to the senators' questions about lessons
learned from the war, Peretz said that one problem the GOI
faced was having so many citizens confined to bomb shelters
in northern Israel. He explained that Israelis are used to
having their army fight, and have long believed that the IDF
knows how to win wars. Unfortunately, he said, the Katyushas
-- while being "very primitive instruments" with short ranges
-- had a significant impact on Israel. He claimed that the
IDF destroyed most of Hizballah's long-range missiles.


7. (C) Peretz said that Israel needs a solution for
short-range rockets like the Kassams launched from the Gaza
Strip. Observing that the "primitive" Kassam rockets
"paralyze" whole towns, he suggested that they have become a
strategic threat with far-reaching implications for Israel.
Israel, he said, will not be able to speak about convergence
(e.g., withdrawing settlements and outposts from the West
Bank) without finding a solution to the Kassam threat:
"Until we do this, there is no way that we can talk about
returning the West Bank."


8. (C) Peretz suggested that Israel's soldiers "came out
winners" from the war with Hizballah, and that the MOD plans
to work on a new war-fighting doctrine based on its
experience in southern Lebanon. He claimed that as a result
of Israel's performance in the war, the Syrians are impressed
with Israel's capabilities to fight a guerrilla war. The
Defense Minister added that the war with Hizballah
demonstrated the important convergence between intelligence
and fighting capability.

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DISCUSSION ON MISSILE DEFENSE
--------------


9. (C) Senator Warner responded by recalling that he had
visited the Israeli MOD in February 1991 when the IDF
successfully knocked down a SCUD missile launched from Iraq.
He suggested that the U.S. and Israel should look more
closely at potential missile defense systems "to invest in"
in the short-term. Senator Levin promised continued U.S.
support for Israel's Arrow missile defense system, saying,
"We need the Arrow system as much as you do." Senator
Sessions noted that his subcommittee concerns itself with
missile defense, and that the U.S. is conducting research and
development on a laser-based missile defense system. He
asked the Defense Minister how Israel evaluates U.S. research
in this area. Senator Warner added that Congress may return
its attention to work conducted to date on chemical lasers.


10. (C) Responding for the Defense Minister -- who had to
depart in order to attend a memorial ceremony for Israeli
soldiers killed in the 1973 Yom Kippur War -- MOD Director
General Gabi Ashkenazi (MGEN Res.) recalled that Israel had
worked with the U.S. on the Nautilus tactical high-energy
laser (THEL) missile defense system as a possible solution to
the threat posed by Katyusha rockets to Israel. Ashkenazi
noted that U.S. support for the Nautilus project had been
terminated in 2005. He stated that Israel could rely on a
laser-based system to defeat Katyushas, or a kinetic kill
system that uses small bullets. Ashkenazi acknowledged that
some progress has been made using chemical lasers, and said
that Israel is awaiting a U.S. briefing on this. He said the
U.S. Army has also made some progress with solid state
lasers. Both, he admitted, are susceptible to weather,
adding that weather conditions are bad in northern Israel for
almost half the year. Ashkenazi said that Israel is
concerned by the environmental problems that chemical lasers
pose.


11. (C) Ashkenazi said that the MOD believes it will be able
to hit a Katyusha rocket with its kinetic "mini-Arrow" system
within two years. The advantage of this system, he claimed,
is that it leaves a low footprint and is unaffected by the
weather.


12. (C) Ashkenazi said that the MOD is now studying missile
defense options and will come up with a proposed way ahead
within two months. The way ahead will also consider
manufacturing issues, and will propose a budget. The MOD DG
told the senators that Israel is very satisfied with U.S.
cooperation in all areas of missile defense. He said he
intends to discuss the matter further during his October
23-24 visit to Washington. He thanked the senators for the
funding support the U.S. is providing for the Arrow missile
defense system, and expressed his hope that in two years,
Israel will have a system that can protect a small town of
5-10 square kilometers.


13. (C) Ashkenazi said Israel was hit by Katyushas and
Iranian and Syrian-origin medium- and long-range missiles
during the war with Hizballah. He claimed that experts
maintain that Israel needs two missile defense systems: one
for short-range missiles and rockets, and one for
medium-range missiles and rockets. He said that the MOD
wants one system, and is concentrating now on countering the
short-range missile/rocket threat. Israel, he said, can
already address the threat posed by medium to long-range
missiles. He observed that Katyusha barrages pose a
particular challenge: Even if 80 percent of the incoming
Katyushas are hit, the Israeli public will still feel that
its missile defense system has failed. He noted that during
the war with Hizballah, only 25 percent of the Katyushas hit
urban areas. Ashkenazi added that Israel has a radar system
that can differentiate between missiles that pose a threat to
populated areas, and those that will land in unpopulated
areas.


14. (C) Senator Sessions said that the U.S. would be very
interested in the results of the MOD's study. Senator Warner
added that Congress may have to review again the chemical
laser option, despite earlier objections due to its cost.
Ashkenazi stressed Israel's determination to find a solution
to the short-range rocket threat within two years.


15. (U) CODEL Warner did not have an opportunity to clear on
this cable.

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