Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06TELAVIV390
2006-01-27 16:29:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tel Aviv
Cable title:  

LABOR'S NUMBER TWO: ELECTIONS WILL BE A FIGHT FOR

This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TEL AVIV 000390 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/27/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL KWBG KPAL PINR IS ELECTIONS GOI INTERNAL ISRAELI PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS GOI EXTERNAL SETTLEMENTS
SUBJECT: LABOR'S NUMBER TWO: ELECTIONS WILL BE A FIGHT FOR
THE CENTER, RUSSIAN VOTE

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Gene A. Cretz for reasons 1.4 (b
,d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TEL AVIV 000390

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/27/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL KWBG KPAL PINR IS ELECTIONS GOI INTERNAL ISRAELI PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS GOI EXTERNAL SETTLEMENTS
SUBJECT: LABOR'S NUMBER TWO: ELECTIONS WILL BE A FIGHT FOR
THE CENTER, RUSSIAN VOTE

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Gene A. Cretz for reasons 1.4 (b
,d).


1. (C) Summary: Labor Party MK Itzhak Herzog told NEA DAS
Robert Danin January 25 that Kadima, Labor, and Likud will be
battling over the some 80 Knesset seats that he assesses will
go to the political center, as well as for the Russian vote.
Herzog expressed resignation that Labor would not win over
Kadima, although at times he suggested that the tide could
still turn in Labor's favor. He expressed confidence that
Labor would enter into a coalition with Kadima. Herzog said
that Labor Party Chairman Amir Peretz will continue to focus
the Labor Party's campaign on economic and social policy
while closely mirroring Kadima's platform on security and
diplomatic issues. On the Palestinian elections, Herzog
expressed concern that if Hamas does well in the elections,
the Europeans would exert pressure on Israel and the U.S. to
recognize Hamas. He claimed that as Housing Minister,
settlement growth had "dried up." Justice and Foreign
Minister Tzipi Livni is confused over definitions of
settlement growth, according to Herzog, and has therefore not
advanced the work of the interministerial committee to
respond to the Talia Sasson report on settlements and
outposts, which she chairs. End summary.

--------------
Herzog Worried About Hamas
--------------


2. (C) Labor MK Itzhak (Booji) Herzog -- number two on
Labor's party list -- began a meeting with NEA DAS Danin
January 25 -- the day of the Palestinian Legislative Council
elections -- by expressing concern that the Europeans would
begin to press the GOI and the USG to talk to Hamas if Hamas
does well in the elections. Danin stressed that we had taken
a firm position on Hamas, but noted that the USG and the GOI
would have to assess the results of the PLC elections.
Herzog said that Peretz believes that Hamas will moderate

itself as it becomes caught up in the business of governing
and "delivering" to the public. Herzog added, however, that
his brother, Brig. Gen. Michael Herzog, is more skeptical
about this prospect. (Note: Danin meet earlier in the week
with Michael Herzog. End note.) Herzog said he shares
Danin's concern that Hamas may simultaneously engage in the
business of governing while at the same time conducting
terrorist acts. Herzog assessed that some Hamas candidates
are not Hamas "cronies," but people who had just rejected
Fatah. Herzog highlighted the need to "analyze the
intricacies between candidates."

--------------
Labor Will be Happy with 25 Seats
--------------


3. (C) Turning to Israeli domestic politics, Herzog said it
is a "big mistake" to predict a Kadima win some two months
before the elections since the tide could still turn. Herzog
did, at one point in the meeting, however, acknowledge that
the next government would likely be led by Kadima in a
coalition with Labor. "I would be happy if Labor receives 25
seats," Herzog said. (Note: This would be a good showing
since the polls show Labor hovering at 21-22 seats if
elections were held today. End note.) Herzog said that he
expects Peretz would be offered the finance ministry
portfolio if Labor joins a Kadima government, describing
Peretz as "smart" and someone with business sense. He also
highlighted Peretz's skills as a negotiator, gained during
his time as chief of the Histadrut labor union.


4. (C) Giving what he characterized as a "closed door
analysis" of the politic scene, Herzog assessed that Kadima's
creation answered the public's need for a centrist party.
Kadima captured voters from Likud, the Russian sector,
Shinui, and some one-third from Labor, who left with former
Labor Party interim chair Shimon Peres to Kadima, Herzog
said. He expressed concern that more of the Russian voters
may shift their support to Avigdor Lieberman's
anti-disengagement right-wing Yisrael Beiteinu Party, which
is geared toward the interests of Israel's over one-million
strong Russian immigrant community. According to Herzog,
some one million Kadima supporters are "soft" and could
potentially shift their loyalty to another party. Any
terrorist attacks will help Likud, Herzog assessed.


5. (C) Herzog said that Labor receives its support from
multiple sources including those people hurt by former
Finance Minister Likud Chairman Binyamin Netanyahu's economic
policy, leftists who want to associate with a larger party,
Israeli Arabs who want to enter mainstream politics, and
youth. He acknowledged that Labor's support in the polls had
gone down after the formation of Kadima, and also due to what
he described as the public perception of Peretz as
"inexperienced, aggressive, and Moroccan." This changed,
Herzog said, after the January 15 Labor primaries and Labor's
"great" Knesset list, a "team," Peretz noted, that includes
Ashkenazi members (those with a European background) to
balance out Peretz's Sephardi background (those from North
Africa and the Middle East).


6. (C) Danin noted that in a meeting with Peretz last
November, Peretz said he would base his campaign on domestic
issues and asked if this agenda had changed. Herzog stressed
that Peretz's focus would remain on domestic issues,
including on education. He acknowledged Peretz's weakness in
addressing security issues, and for this reason, said that
Peretz surrounds himself with those in Labor who have a
security background, such as former head of the Israel
Security Agency (Shin Bet) Ami Ayalon.

--------------
Kadima is "Shrewd"
--------------


7. (C) Herzog criticized Alternate Prime Minister Ehud
Olmert's January 24 speech at the Herzliya Conference for not
adequately addressing the problem of poverty in Israel.
Olmert's speech, Herzog assessed, was directed at capturing
Likud voters. Asked about Likud voters' reaction to Olmert's
references to removing illegal outposts, Herzog stressed that
Likud voters respect the rule of law and therefore oppose the
illegal outposts. Herzog, with some sarcasm, said that
Olmert had "played prime minister" when giving his speech and
had "done brilliantly," adding that "now he's got Tzipi
(Livni as Foreign Minister)." Herzog criticized (and
backhandedly praised) Olmert for praising Netanyahu's
accomplishments as Finance Minister in his speech, exclaiming
that the Kadima team is "shrewd." He characterized as a
"trick of the trade" any efforts by Kadima to push an Olmert
visit to the U.S. before the elections. Danin stressed that
the USG appreciated the sensitivity of the moment and does
not want to involve itself in election politics. (Note:
Herzog had accused the USG of showing party favoritism when
reports appeared last week that Olmert was planning a visit
to the U.S. End note.)


8. (C) Without naming names, Herzog underlined that Olmert's
inner circle is different from that of Sharon and predicted
that "the Sharon courtyard will fade away." Herzog continued
that Avraham Hirchson -- one of the 13 MKs who left Likud
with Sharon to form Kadima -- is a close friend and confidant
of Olmert's, whom Herzog described as "very nice and modest,"
adding, "I like him a lot."

--------------
Settlement Growth "Drying Up"
--------------


9. (C) Danin asked Herzog about the last housing tenders he
approved as Housing Minister and about settlement growth in
general. Herzog asserted that during his tenure as Housing
Minister, settlement growth has "dried up." He said that he
only approved 300 units in neighborhood 07 in Ma'ale Adumim
and that building there was within the line of construction.
Herzog claimed that a "false" perception exists that
settlements are growing, when this growth should be
attributed to the high birth rate among some of the border
town religious communities such as Betar Ilit. He
underscored that he did not "touch E-1." He claimed that
little construction is taking place in the Ariel settlement
except for a small amount attracted by the new university
there. Herzog acknowledged that he had approved construction
of a town hall there.


10. (C) Herzog said that he does not see much construction
taking place in the West Bank in general unless it is being
done "privately." He claimed that in a meeting with Peace
Now director Yariv Oppenheimer (Herzog did not specify when),
Oppenheimer agreed that there had not been major changes in
West Bank settlement construction. (Note: Peace Now's
position is that most of the construction is taking place in
the seam line, but not in the West Bank. End Note.) Herzog
said that he tried not to bring attention to his having dried
up settlement growth while Housing Minister so as not to
"hurt" Sharon, but said he later touted this claim during his
recent campaign in the Labor Party primaries.


11. (C) In response to Danin's question as to why it had
been so difficult for the GOI to declare its adherence to
elements of a settlement freeze, Herzog professed confusion
as to the definition of natural growth. He claimed that
Minister of Justice and Foreign Affairs Tzipi Livni also has
questions about the "definitions" of growth, and he suggested
that the USG "talk to her" about this. Herzog commented that
Livni still has not completed her interministerial committee
report to respond to attorney Talia Sasson's report on
illegal outposts. Commenting on the problem of illegal
outposts and defining which outposts are illegal, Herzog said
that there is a "big dark hole" in the Ministry of Defense
and "they are now working on how to get out of it."


12. (U) NEA/DAS Danin cleared this message.

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