OLMERT TACKS TO THE CENTER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 000349

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/IPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/25/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL IS ELECTIONS GOI INTERNAL ISRAELI PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS SETTLEMENTS
SUBJECT: OLMERT TACKS TO THE CENTER

Classified By: Political Counselor Norman H. Olsen for reasons 1.4 (b,d
).


1. (C) SUMMARY: "Candidate" Olmert used his first major
public address as acting prime minister and Kadima party
leader to nudge his party's platform further toward the
center, reprising the role he played as Sharon's stalking
horse for unilateral disengagement, and once again moving
beyond where Sharon had ventured. With his focus seemingly
fixed on the March elections, Olmert indicated that he will
adhere more closely to his perception of popular preference
for moves toward some sort of Palestinian accord than he will
to the legacy of Ariel Sharon. While he generally
articulated Sharon's policies, Olmert said that he prefers
negotiated agreement over unilateral withdrawals; he will
limit construction in the settlements; and he will forcibly
dismantle illegal outposts. Olmert's well received comments
follow other indications that he is edging toward the center,
including his decision, taken less than 24 hours after
assuming Sharon's authorities, to permit Palestinians to vote
in East Jerusalem, and his decision to order the IDF to
respond vigorously to riots sparked by settlers. END SUMMARY.

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TACTIC I: STICK TO SHARON
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2. (C) Ehud Olmert demonstrated loyalty to Ariel Sharon the
man in his first major address as acting prime minister
through sentimental references to the Prime Minister's
health, and to Sharon the Prime Minister through a stated
allegiance to the road map that emphasized the imperative for
Palestinians "to abandon the path of terror." Olmert
continued Sharon's practice of highlighting the demographic
argument for Israel's withdrawal from areas populated mainly
by Palestinians. Withdrawal from parts of the West Bank,
Olmert argued, will "reflect the demographic reality that has
emerged" by "guarantee(ing) the existence of a Jewish and
democratic state in the Land of Israel." The audience
interrupted the speech with applause when Olmert declared
that Israel will retain sovereignty over a united Jerusalem,
even though he also continued Sharon's habit of omitting
reference to Jerusalem's future boundaries. Another burst of
applause followed Olmert's declaration that the GOI will not
permit Palestinian refugees to return to Israel, a position
which he claimed the USG "unequivocally" supports, "as
reflected in the letter from the U.S. President to our prime
minister in April 2004."

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TACTIC II: MOVE TO THE CENTER
--------------


3. (C) Olmert employed new language for his party when he
described an interdependent relationship between "two nation
states, Jewish and Palestinian" in which, he said, "their
well-being is our well-being; what's good for them is good
for us; their stability is our stability." He also broke new
ground by stating a clear preference for negotiated agreement
over unilateral withdrawals; saying he will limit
construction in the settlements; and pledging to forcibly
dismantle illegal outposts. These statements follow other
indications that Olmert has edged toward the center,
including his decision, taken less than 24 hours after
assuming Sharon's authorities, to permit Palestinians to vote
in East Jerusalem, and his decision to order the IDF to
respond vigorously to riots sparked by settlers.

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TACTIC III: APPEAR "PRESIDENTIAL"
--------------


4. (C) Tacitly acknowledging for the first time that Sharon
will not be returning to public life, Olmert deliberately
projected a "presidential" demeanor in his speech. Always
admired for his improvisational speaking style, Olmert this
time read a written speech; feared for his quick temper,
Olmert refrained from attacking his political enemies;
reviled for his role as what some termed Sharon's "hatchet
man," Olmert praised his archrival, Binyamin Netanyahu, for
his work as finance minister. These gestures continue
Olmert's calculated effort since the day Sharon collapsed to
cultivate a statesman-like image. He has refused thus far to
occupy the office of the prime minister or Sharon's seat at
the Cabinet table. He immediately dropped his famously
provocative and insouciant tone in public interviews. And he
changed clothes. As journalist Yosi Verter noted in Haaretz,
"Olmert's loud orange ties, which made him stick out in a
crowd, have disappeared. They have been replaced by solid
royal blue and formal black ties." As the Sharon lieutenant
who first articulated the policy of unilateral disengagement
-- a huge international and domestic success -- Olmert
appears to have confidence in his ability to gauge the pulse
of the people, and to see that public firmly planted in the
center.

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