ISRAELI ATOMIC ENERGY COMMISSION DIRECTOR GENERAL

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 003041

SIPDIS

STATE FOR ISN/RA (RANGASWAMY) AND NEA/IPA (MAHER)
PENTAGON FOR OSD ISRAEL DESK OFFICER (ANDERSON)
NSC FOR LOGERFO
JOINT STAFF FOR LT GEN WILLIAM FRASER
DEPT OF ENERGY FOR NNSA ADMINISTRATOR LINTON BROOKS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/02/2016
TAGS: KNNP PARM PREL PTER MNUC AORC EU IR IS
SUBJECT: ISRAELI ATOMIC ENERGY COMMISSION DIRECTOR GENERAL
ON IRAN'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM: "TIME IS NOT ON OUR SIDE."

REF: STATE 119436

Classified By: Ambassador Richard H. Jones. Reasons: 1.4 (b, d).

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SUMMARY
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1. (S) Israeli Atomic Energy Commission (IAEC) Director
General Gideon Frank told the Ambassador on August 2 that
Iran's rejection of what Frank characterized as a generous
P-5 1 offer to Iran suggests that Iran has never been serious
about negotiations on its nuclear program. Frank said the
passage of UN Security Council Resolution 1696 is a step in
the right direction, but expressed Israel's concern that the
West is reacting too softly and slowly to Iranian
intransigence, and that Iran is learning the wrong lesson
from this. Frank is worried that Iran may decide to begin
negotiations by the August 31 deadline set by UNSCR 1696, and
then buy time for its weapons program -- which he claims is
steadily moving forward. Frank expressed his hope that the
world would come to see Iran's true nature as a result of its
support for Hizballah in the conflict in Lebanon, and that
this will help to unify the international community in its
approach to Iran's nuclear weapons program. Frank expressed
concerns about Russia's inconsistency in its position on
Iran, and Germany's willingness to help Iran with nuclear
research and development. He urged the U.S. to remain
resolute in dealing with the current situation, stressing
that time is only on Iran's side. END SUMMARY.


2. (S) Responding to information in reftel concerning the
P-5 1 offer to Iran, Israeli Atomic Energy Commission
Director General Gideon Frank told the Ambassador August 2
that Iran's rejection of the offer suggests that Iran has
never been serious about negotiations, and intends to proceed
at all costs with its nuclear weapons program. Frank
considered the passage of UNSCR 1696 "impressive" and a step
in the right direction, but lamented that the international
community is still reacting too softly and slowly to Iranian
intransigence: "If the Iranian leadership analyzes the
West's reactions along the way, it will certainly conclude
that being defiant and aggressive makes sense, as it has
never faced a timely, strong reaction from the West." Frank
expressed his concern that Iran might agree on August 31 to
enter into negotiations with the P-5 1, and thereby undercut
the imposition of sanctions envisioned in UNSCR 1696, while
buying more time for its weapons program. Frank said
Russia's inconsistent behavior -- including its recent
announcement that it will not store spent fuel from third
countries -- remains difficult to understand and predict, and
complicates formulating an effective, unified approach to
Iran. He also claimed that Russia did not permit any
reference to the use of force under article 39 of Chapter VII
in UNSCR 1696.


3. (S) Echoing a notion that many GOI officials have recently
expressed in public, Frank said it is hard to draw a line
separating Iran's behavior and Hizballah's aggression in
Lebanon. "Iran does not need an aircraft carrier when it has
Hizballah operating out of southern Lebanon." Suggesting
that it is increasingly clear to the international community
that Iran cannot possibly have peaceful ambitions, Frank
wondered aloud how the world ultimately will react to the war
in Lebanon. "Do they understand that Iran is behind the war
and the missile launches against Israel? I do not believe
people understand how angry Israelis are about Hizballah
right now. It is frustrating that the Europeans do not
understand this." The Ambassador pointed out that U.S.
embassies around the world have shown the P-5 1 offer to host
governments. Governments have noted their surprise that Iran
rejected an offer that includes help with nuclear research
and development and other forms of assistance in a wide range
of non-nuclear areas. Perhaps this was why the vote in UNSCR
1696 was 14-1. Frank noted that the lone "no" vote was cast
by Qatar. He saw the small Gulf State's behavior as a
harbinger of things to come in the region once Iran became a
nuclear power.


4. (S) Frank used the discussion to reiterate Israel's
concerns with aspects of the P-5 1 offer and stated
positions: "In the offer and discussions, there are no
references to conversion. There are no calls for Iran to
suspend work on its research reactor in Arak. Instead, there
is an offer to assist Iran with research and development."
Frank observed that Germany's willingness to offer assistance
with research and development ran counter to an IAEA
assessment that he claims suggests that any amount of
research and development will contribute to a nuclear weapons
program. In light of the Western countries disagreement over
implications, Frank wondered aloud if the P-5 1 will be able
to come to agreement on an effective sanctions regime should
Iran decide to balk on August 31. The Ambassador replied
that the Russians and Chinese appear increasingly irritated
with Iran, and said that he is confident that agreement will
be found on sanctions, should Iran break the August 31
deadline.


5. (S) Frank said that Iran is pushing ahead on its cascade.
"Iran is having some problems in this area, but it is still
moving forward. It has over 100 tons of uranium
hexaflouride. We know that they have plans for a bigger
operation in Natanz." Frank observed that if Iran is running
a cascade of between 3,000 and 5,000 centrifuges, it can
produce enough U-236 in one year for a nuclear bomb. He
added that if Iran is able to enrich uranium up to 3-5
percent, it will be more than halfway to achieving its goal
of creating fissile material: "And that is with its declared
program. What if they have a clandestine program?" Frank
allowed that International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
inspectors travel in and out of Iran all the time, but
pointed out that Iran can delay issuing visas under the rules
of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). He noted that
Iran had recently declared the IAEA's chief inspector not
welcome, and that IAEA Director General ElBaradei acquiesced
and later avoided public mention of it: "Why didn't El
Baradei publicly mention it? Under the circumstances, it is
more than strange." Frank added that Iran already has the
missiles it needs to deliver a nuclear warhead, and has
learned from the A.Q. Khan network how to prepare metal
spheres necessary for nuclear weapons.


6. (S) Frank said he agreed with the views of former IAEA
Deputy DG Pierre Goldschmidt -- that once a country has been
found noncompliant by the IAEA's Board of Governors, it
should be forced to submit to special measures, including
increased access by inspectors, and "forced suspension" of
activities. He lauded the USG's proposal to establish the
Special Committee on Safeguards, but lamented that the
committee, in his view, is not being utilized as the U.S.
envisioned it should be, and instead only deals with what the
IAEA staff puts before it. "Member States are not
contributing to it, and it is not as effective as we hoped it
would be." In response to the Ambassador's question, Frank
said that Israel is not planning to hold consultations with
any of the Europeans in the near future. He added, "It is
important that we deal with what we are facing right now. We
should not focus on the possibilities in the future. I hope
that the U.S. will not do this. The U.S. must be resolute,
unlike the Germans and the rest of the Europeans. Time, in
this case, is not on our side."

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