IRAN: CONGRESSMAN ACKERMAN'S JANUARY 5 MEETING AT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 TEL AVIV 000293

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/IPA (MAHER) AND NP/RA (ODLUM)
PENTAGON FOR OSD ISRAEL DESK OFFICER JAMES ANDERSON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/18/2016
TAGS: PREL KNNP MNUC PARM PGOV IS GOI EXTERNAL
SUBJECT: IRAN: CONGRESSMAN ACKERMAN'S JANUARY 5 MEETING AT
THE ISRAELI ATOMIC ENERGY COMMISSION


Classified By: DCM Gene A. Cretz. Reasons: 1.4 (b, d).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) In his January 5 discussion with Congressman Gary
Ackerman on Iran's nuclear program, Israeli Atomic Energy
Commission (IAEC) Deputy Director General Ariel Levite said:

-- U.S.-Israel relations will remain high on any Israeli
leader's agenda;

-- Israel is anxious about Iran's nuclear ambitions and wants
the U.S. to lead the Europeans in their diplomatic engagement
with Iran to forestall a crisis;

-- Israel believes time is running out and wants to see Iran
referred to the UNSC as soon as possible. According to
Israeli estimates, the Iranians could achieve a nuclear
weapons capability within two to four years of resuming
centrifuge cascade operations at Natanz;

-- Israel prefers and hopes for a diplomatic solution that
curbs Iran's nuclear ambitions. Most Israelis do not believe
a military solution is workable; and

-- Israel sees a growing consensus in support of sanctions
against Iran if Iran continues to defy the international
community. If sanctions were called for by the UNSC, they
would probably find more support than if they were imposed
outside the UN by individual countries. Israel is still not
sure whether Russia is willing to even consider future
economic sanctions, and intends to discuss the issue in
January 17-18 talks in Moscow.


2. (C) Responding to the Congressman's questions on North
Korea and Brazil, Levite said Israel has not been tracking
North Korea's proliferation activities except when they
concern the Middle East. He suggested that the U.S. and
like-minded countries monitor Brazil closely. END SUMMARY.

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ISRAEL STABLE, DESPITE PM SHARON'S ILLNESS
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3. (C) Levite opened the discussion with a reference to PM
Sharon's health, assuring the Congressman that the "levers of
Israeli government are in good hands," and that U.S.-Israeli
relations will remain high on any Israeli leader's agenda.
Levite said that no matter who is elected prime minister in
March, the U.S. can count on the fact that there will be no
"America bashing" from Israel. On U.S.-Israel relations,
Congressman Ackerman said he would push the U.S. Navy to
continue port visits to Israel.

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IRAN: ISRAEL WANTS DIPLOMATIC ACTION TAKEN QUICKLY
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4. (C) Levite said that Israel is anxious about Iran and
wants the U.S. to lead the Europeans, preferably towards a
referral in the near future to the UNSC. The Israelis
believe it took a while for the proponents of a diplomatic
solution to understand that they need to stand up against
Iran. He noted that the French foreign minister recently
heard from representatives of the Persian Gulf countries and
Egypt about the "international security implications" of a
nuclear-armed Iran. Levite noted with irony that President
Ahmadinejad's statements on Israel and the Holocaust have
helped in this regard. Levite acknowledged that there is a
"chance" that a diplomatic solution may be found, especially
as (a) the Europeans have explained the costs to Iran of its
resumption of sensitive nuclear activity; and (b) President
Bush has stated clearly that all options are still on the
table. Levite stressed that Israel is concerned about what
Iran will do in late January: If the Iranians escalate the
situation, then Israel will urge the U.S. and the EU-3
proceed "full speed ahead" on referring Iran to the UNSC. If
Iran decides to return to the negotiating table, then Israel,
he said, will be in a difficult situation, because Iran will
be able to proceed with its nuclear program while appearing
conciliatory.
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LEVITE DISCUSSES SANCTIONS, REFERRAL TO THE UNSC
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5. (C) Levite said that Israel believes that some progress
has been made in garnering support for sanctions against Iran
both within and outside the UN system. The Israelis are not
sure, however, that Russia is willing to even consider future
economic sanctions to be imposed by the UN due to Russia's
sensitive relationship with Iran. The Israelis believe that
if sanctions were imposed outside the UN system, some
Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) countries would not join,
including Malaysia, South Africa and Brazil. Levite said
that India prefers not to see Iran referred to the UNSC as
India has its own nuclear energy ambitions. He allowed that
India, if forced to make a choice, would probably support a
referral to the UNSC, but that it would likely oppose
sanctions. Levite added that if Iran were referred to the
UNSC, the EU would probably unify in support of sanctions.
If sanctions were pursued outside the UN, then the EU may not
unify, as -- according to Levite -- Italy abhors sanctions.
Levite stressed that sanctions need to focus on hitting
Iranian pride (e.g., not allowing their soccer team to play
in the World Cup),and recommended as a model the sanctions
imposed on South Africa and Libya in the past. Levite also
suggested hitting Iran's tourism industry, saying that Iran's
mullahs own the insurance companies that own Iran's hotels:
"If tourism declines, Iran's mullahs will scream." He said
not allowing Iran's national airlines to fly to capitals
would have an effect, as would denying Iranians entry into
Paris and London.


6. (C) Levite said that Russia would probably abstain on any
UNSC resolution on Iran's nuclear program. He explained that
Russia and Iran have a delicate relationship. He noted
Russia's significant commercial interests in Iran, and said
this subjects Russia to what he termed blackmail. He also
said that Iran has made it clear to Russia that Iran can
"stir things up" in Chechnya at Russia's expense. Levite
said the motives behind Russia's position on Iran are hard to
decipher. He noted that Russia's assertiveness in the energy
market is growing. He also suggested that the Russians are
worried that Iran might succumb to Western pressure and be
lulled away from Russia like Ukraine and Georgia. He
speculated that this might be behind Russian weapons sales
and nuclear assistance to Iran. Levite noted as a good thing
so far that Russia has not yet supplied nuclear fuel for
Iran's Bushehr reactor. Israel, he said, remains concerned
about Russia's position on Iran. He said PM Sharon had just
instructed the IAEC to send its director, Gideon Frank, to
Moscow on January 17-18 to discuss next steps on Iran with
the Russians.


7. (C) Levite said China's position on Iran is "shifting in
the right direction," and that the Chinese no longer appear
to be comfortable to sit in the shadow of Russia on this
issue. Levite said China would probably not join sanctions
implemented outside the UN. He said that if the UN calls for
sanctions, China may join. He warned that China is wary
about Iran meddling in western China.


8. (C) Levite stressed that if Iran were to attain a nuclear
weapons capability, it would have disastrous implications for
the region and international security. He said that Israel
believes that if Iran were to declare a nuclear weapons
capability, such a declaration would encourage Egypt, South
Africa, Brazil and possibly Turkey to energize efforts to
acquire their own capabilities.

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LEVITE NOTES MOST ISRAELIS RULE OUT MILITARY RESPONSE
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9. (C) Levite said that most Israeli officials do not believe
a military solution is possible. They believe Iran has
learned from Israel's attack on Iraq's Osirak reactor, and
has dispersed the components of its nuclear program
throughout Iran, with some elements in places that Israel
does not know about. Levite noted that the French had
recently made it clear that they also do not believe there is
a military solution, and would not cooperate if military
action were taken.

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LEVITE SAYS IRAN MAY ACQUIRE A WEAPON IN 2-4 YEARS
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10. (C) On the timetable issue, Levite said that Iran may be
two to four years away from having a nuclear weapon, although
he acknowledged that there is some "imprecision" in the
estimates. The timeline depends on whether Iran steps up its
activity in its civilian centrifuge enrichment program and
ignores protests from the international community, or whether
it proceeds through its clandestine program, factoring in
input from its civilian program. In the former case, Levite
estimated that Iran could reach complete self-sufficiency
within one year of resuming centrifuge cascade operations at
Natanz, which would allow Iran to overcome certain "knowledge
gaps." Through its clandestine program, Levite suggested
that Iran could create a weapon within three to four years.
He acknowledged that this was based on certain unspecified
assumptions, since Israel does not have a clear or precise
understanding of Iran's clandestine program.


11. (C) Without citing sources, Levite noted that there are
rumors that Iran has already obtained "some warheads" from
Ukraine. He claimed that, "Israel knows that Iran has
acquired cruise missiles from Ukraine."

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LEVITE SAYS NUCLEAR ISSUE FUELS POWER STRUGGLE IN IRAN
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12. (C) Levite said that Israel believes there is a power
struggle going on in Iran, and that the nuclear issue is
caught up in it. The Israelis believe President Ahmadinejad
has managed successfully to discredit his predecessors for
their cooperation with the West (i.e., they did what the West
asked of them for three years, and Iran got nothing in
return). The Israelis believe Ahmadinejad is now trying to
show that he can get more for Iran by playing tough. Israel
also believes that he cannot deliver on the economic platform
on which he was elected, and thus is diverting the debate to
the nuclear issue to avoid criticism.


13. (C) Levite noted that some criticism has been leveled
against Ahmadinejad in the Iranian press. This has been
accompanied by apologists who have sought to explain
Ahmadinejad's statements on Israel and the Holocaust. While
Levite said there is some disenchantment in small circles in
Iran, he does not see any moves afoot to overthrow the
current Iranian government. Levite said he has no high hopes
for a peaceful uprising. He admitted that there could be a
backlash from the leadership councils and noted that (a)
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has to approve every action
that President Ahmadinejad takes, and (b) all government and
parliamentary decisions are now being reviewed by Iran's
Guardian Council. Levite observed that the ayatollahs,
fearful of repercussions from the West, might start to play a
moderating role in the Iranian government.

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ISRAEL NOT ACTIVELY WATCHING NORTH KOREA
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14. (C) Responding to Congressman Ackerman's question, Levite
said Israel has tracked "North Korean mischief" only when it
has been apparent in the Middle East region. Levite said
North Korea has supplied missiles to Syria, Libya, Egypt and
Iran. He said the degree to which the missiles are "purely"
North Korean, or involve Russian or Chinese production, is
unclear. Levite noted that China seems willing to export
technology acquired from Pakistan for uranium enrichment.


15. (C) Levite said he does not believe that sanctions will
have any effect on North Korea for the following reasons:
(a) China, South Korea and Japan will not take the next steps
and impose sanctions; (b) North Korea's ruling regime is not
sensitive to the suffering of the North Korean population;
(c) South Korea does not want to see North Korea collapse,
and would prefer to prop North Korea up and allow change to
take place gradually.

16. (C) Levite said North Korea is clearly in the business of
making money and remains willing to counterfeit and
manipulate currency. He added that North Korea appears
resistant to charges that it is violating human rights.

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A.Q. KHAN NETWORK GONE, BUT LEGACY REMAINS
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17. (C) Responding to the Congressman's question, Levite said
it is clear that A.Q. Khan clearly does not play the role he
played in the past in terms of proliferating. The network in
its original form -- as a procurement network that also
financed Pakistan's own nuclear program -- is no longer
active, but Levite suggested that the world is still dealing
with its legacy. He explained that the network once had
subcontractors in over 20 locations in South Africa, Turkey
and Malaysia, and admitted that he is not sure that all of
the subcontractors have been shut down.

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LEVITE SAYS WE NEED TO KEEP OUR EYES ON BRAZIL
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18. (C) Levite expressed some concern that Brazil is becoming
more radical on nuclear issues, and listed the following
reasons for this concern: (a) President Lula's recent
statements; (b) Brazil's creation of a new uranium enrichment
facility; (c) Brazil's "playing games" with the IAEA to
deprive the agency of access to commercial advantages; and
(d) Brazil's statements in support of Iran at the IAEA.
Levite acknowledged that Brazil's rhetoric on nuclear
independence has gone down over the last few months, and
suggested this might be the result of U.S., EU and Israeli
engagement with Brazil. He said the U.S., Israel and others
should not be too worried about Brazil, but should monitor it.


19. (U) Congressman Ackerman did not have an opportunity to
clear this cable.

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