Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06TELAVIV201
2006-01-13 13:13:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tel Aviv
Cable title:  

MOFAZ DISCUSSES PALESTINIAN ELECTIONS, NORTHERN

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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TEL AVIV 000201 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/13/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV KPAL KWBG IS ISRAELI PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS GOI EXTERNAL
SUBJECT: MOFAZ DISCUSSES PALESTINIAN ELECTIONS, NORTHERN
BORDER, CROSSINGS, AND IRAN WITH WELCH AND ABRAMS

Classified By: Ambassador Richard H. Jones for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TEL AVIV 000201

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/13/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV KPAL KWBG IS ISRAELI PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS GOI EXTERNAL
SUBJECT: MOFAZ DISCUSSES PALESTINIAN ELECTIONS, NORTHERN
BORDER, CROSSINGS, AND IRAN WITH WELCH AND ABRAMS

Classified By: Ambassador Richard H. Jones for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz told the
Ambassador, A/S Welch, DAPNSA Abrams, General Dayton, and
PolCouns January 12 that the GOI would not talk to Hamas
members elected to the PLC if they did not give up their
terrorist activities. He said that the elections should take
place as scheduled on January 25, and suggested that the USG
ask PA President Mahmud Abbas for a plan on how the PA is
going to dismantle the terrorist infrastructure after the
elections. Mofaz remarked that this is part of the PA's
commitments under the road map and the February 2005 Sharm
al-Sheikh summit, and assessed that Abbas has not made any
progress on this front over the past year. With respect to
Israel's northern border, Mofaz claimed that he had
personally seen Hizballah's preparations to escalate terror
attacks against Israel, and suggested that the Lebanese army
should be on the Blue Line to help prevent such attacks. He
also asked the USG for advance warning if the USG plans to
put aggressive pressure on Syria because Israel would be
Syria's first target. Mofaz said that despite the fact that
there is weapons smuggling taking place at the Rafah
crossing, and that Karni was almost attacked by a car bomb
four weeks ago, the GOI would do its best to keep the
passages open. He was not as forthcoming on convoys,
however, stating that Israel has intelligence of plans to
transfer Qassam rocket know-how from the Gaza Strip to the
West Bank. For this reason, he explained, "convoys don't fit
with terror attempts," and would not start for the time
being. On Iran, Mofaz said the GOI wants deep IAEA
inspections of all locations in the country. End summary.


2. (C) Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz told the Ambassador, A/S
Welch, DAPNSA Abrams, General Dayton, and PolCouns January 12
that Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmud Abbas's
leadership has been very weak this year, and that there is
"high anarchy" in the PA. He said that there is no

determination within the PA to fight terrorism, and that it
does not have control of the Gaza Strip.

--------------
Palestinian Elections
--------------


3. (C) Mofaz said that there are two issues surrounding the
Palestinian elections. The first is the possibility that
Hamas gains power in the Palestinian Legislative Council
(PLC) and Hamas members become representatives. If this
happens, he asserted, the GOI would not be able to have a
dialogue with them as long as they continue undertaking
terrorist activities. He added that the GOI does not agree
with the Quartet statement on Hamas, which he claimed makes a
distinction between Hamas members in the PLC and Hamas
members in the cabinet. A/S Welch said the USG sees a
difference between the legislative and executive branches of
a government, but clarified that the USG would not talk to
any Hamas person without a change in U.S. law and without
Hamas changing its charter. He emphasized that the U.S. does
not want to see Hamas in the government. We recognize they
will attain seats in the PLC.


4. (C) The second issue, according to Mofaz, is the seeming
desire of Abbas and other Palestinian leaders to find excuses
to try to postpone the elections, scheduled for January 25.
From Mofaz's perspective, it is important that the elections
take place as scheduled because if they are postponed for 2-3
months, Hamas could gain even more power and the PA could
become weaker still. He remarked that the GOI would not
interfere with the elections and would let them be carried
out as planned. He said elections in East Jerusalem would
take place as in 1996, except for activities by Hamas
members, and reiterated that Israel would "not be an
obstacle." He concluded that, in any case, Hamas would be a
part of the PLC because Fatah has made the mistake of
splitting into three units over the past few months: the
"Young Guard" let by Marwan Barghouti, the traditional "Old
Guard," and the new batch of independents led by Salam Fayyad
and Hanan Ashrawi.


5. (C) Mofaz said that the USG should make it clear to Abbas
that, after the elections, Abbas should present a plan on how
the PA is going to dismantle the terrorist infrastructure and
implement the reforms required from the Sharm al-Sheikh
summit of February 2005. He said that moving against
terrorism is also part of the first phase of the road map,
and that the GOI will not have any discussions with the PA
until this commitment is fulfilled. Mofaz opined that "it's
about time" because Abbas has not made any progress on
security services reform or taken any steps to control
terrorism in the last year. A/S Welch concurred that the
elections should take place as scheduled on January 25, and
referred to the Secretary's statement to explain our
expectations to the PA and the Palestinian voters. He
pointed out that a delay would be dangerous because the time
frame would be undefined, possibly stretching to years after
the elections were supposed to take place. A/S Welch also
expressed the USG's gratitude for the fact that the GOI has
not contributed to being an excuse for delay. Abrams thanked
Mofaz for his personal statements on Jerusalem voting.

--------------
Hizballah, Lebanon, and Syria
--------------


6. (C) Moving on to Israel's northern border, Mofaz said the
GOI believes UNIFIL and the Lebanese army should have a
presence along the Blue Line to minimize the possibility that
Hizballah will attempt an escalation of attacks against
Israel. He said he was in the north recently, and claimed he
could see ongoing preparations on the ground for further
attacks. He speculated this was Hizballah's attempt to shift
the focus away from Syria. Mofaz also said he believes the
USG, the UN, and the EU should make clear to Syria and
Lebanon that these steps are unacceptable, and that UNIFIL
and Lebanon should "keep the calm," especially in critical
places where there have been attacks and attempts to kidnap
Israeli soldiers. A/S Welch told Mofaz that the USG is
working with France to update UNIFIL's mandate, when it
expires in late January, to include Lebanese army steps.


7. (C) Mofaz asked whether the USG would put any pressure on
Syria in the coming months. A/S Welch responded that the
recent Khaddam interview and Mehlis' interview requests have
raised alarms in Damascus again, after what seemed like a
loss of momentum in December, and that the Syrians are again
trying to break their isolation by reaching out to Saudi
Arabia and Egypt. He said that Syria's isolation would not
be broken at the expense of Hizballah or the investigation,
however. Mofaz requested that if the USG is planning more
aggressive moves against Damascus, the USG should warn the
GOI in advance because Israel would be the first target. A/S
Welch told Mofaz that while the President always reserves his
options, the USG does not have any aggressive plans toward
Syria; but, A/S Welch also cautioned him that Syria has plans
against Israel and advised that the GOI restrain its response
to any Syrian provocations. Mofaz said the GOI understands
that Syria's provocations are diversionary tactics from the
Hariri assassination and U.S. pressure, but said that he
could not predict what would happen in 2-3 months because he
sees a connection between increases in Palestinian and
Hizballah terror attacks. He said the possibility exists
that after January 25, Israel will be facing two fronts, from
the Palestinians, and from Lebanon and Syria. If this is the
case, he said, he does not know how far the escalation will
go, but he expects Lebanon to be responsible for what happens
on its soil.

--------------
Rafah and Philadelphi Corridor
--------------


8. (C) Mofaz asserted that neither Egypt, the PA, nor EU/BAM
have any control of the Rafah crossing, and that it is open
for "any kind of movement," including smuggling of weapons.
He said that, nevertheless, the GOI is committed to keeping
it open, and is preparing Erez and Karni to be international
passages in case the Palestinians continue to ignore the
responsibilities of Rafah. A/S Welch said that it is
important that these passages remain open vis-a-vis the
November 15 Agreement on Movement and Access, and added that
performance should be improved. He said that the USG would
work with the EU, Egypt, PA, and the GOI to make sure the
passages are functioning properly. A/S Welch suggested that
Israel make it clear to Egypt that it wants the GOE to play a
strong role in the passages.


9. (C) A/S Welch asked whether the GOI would help the
elections on January 25 by easing restrictions to movement or
starting convoys from the Gaza Strip to the West Bank. Mofaz
responded that the GOI would do its best to keep the passages
open, despite the car bomb attack against Karni interdicted
four weeks ago, and the threat today of a PIJ operation. He
said that for the time being, however, convoys would not
start because Israel has intelligence on attempts to transfer
Qassam technology to the West Bank. He said that Israel is
doing other things to help the Palestinians, such as allowing
businessmen and merchants to enter Israel, working on the
Erez Industrial Zone with Turkey, and opening Erez with
better infrastructure than in the past, but concluded that
ultimately "convoys don't fit with terror attempts," and the
"risk of convoys is too high for any profit Abu Mazen would
get."


10. (C) A/S Welch also asked how Israel could help improve
election turnout, as higher turnout helps the Fatah
candidates. In particular, he asked what the GOI's
intentions were for movement in the West Bank. Mofaz was
forthcoming, saying he understood the point that Israel
wanted to have this effect, and that a plan was ready to
relax movement controls (security permitting) 48-72 hours
before the election.

--------------
Iran
--------------


11. (C) On Iran, Mofaz said the GOI wants deep IAEA
inspections of all locations in the country. DAPNSA Abrams
said that progress was being made in the IAEA and UNSC to
start a continuous program of criticism and sanctions in
conjunction with the EU. He said that Iran's rejection of
the Russian proposal could be seen in a positive light
because Russia could now support or abstain from any U.S.
proposal in the UN, but would not obstruct.


12. (C) A/S Welch and DAPNSA Abrams have cleared this
message.

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