FM LIVNI OPPOSES USG ASSISTANCE TO ABBAS

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEL AVIV 001752


DEPT FOR NEA/IPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/04/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR PINS PTER KWBG KPAL IS
SUBJECT: FM LIVNI OPPOSES USG ASSISTANCE TO ABBAS

Classified By: A/DCM Norm Olsen for reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni cautioned
Senator Joseph Lieberman April 20 that by strengthening
President Mahmud Abbas the USG could lend legitimacy to the
Palestinian Authority (PA) without changing Hamas. Livni
also said that the GOI does not plan to involve the
Palestinians in the convergence plan, but hopes agreement
between Israel and the U.S. will convince the international
community to support it. Even while withdrawing from parts
of the West Bank, Livni stressed, the GOI will need to retain
control of "certain interests, such as water, holy places,
and air space." If the Palestinians respond to the
convergence plan by unilaterally declaring statehood, she
said, then "this step will take the question of the refugees
off the table." Livni also said that she anticipates that
the new Israeli governing coalition will include some 84
MK's. At the end of the meeting, Livni made a point of
adding that "the Russians are taking a problematic position
not only toward Iran, but on other issues as well." END
SUMMARY.

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LIVNI: DO NOT STRENGTHEN ABBAS
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2. (C) Senator Lieberman told FM Livni that advisors to
President Abbas want to send PA presidential guard forces to
the Israel-Gaza border to prevent the launching of Kassam
rockets. Senator Lieberman asked Livni if she would oppose
USG efforts to train or equip the PA presidential guard? "It
sounds very tempting," Livni replied, "and it even looks like
we have nothing to lose, but we do." Livni warned that this
type of support could create "the most dangerous scenario,"
in which "we lend legitimacy to the PA through dealings with
Abu Mazen," but Hamas does not change. "Abu Mazen cannot
deliver," she said; by strengthening him, "we allow him to
serve as a fig leaf for Hamas."


3. (C) Livni said that the GOI's preference is to negotiate
with a partner. "Without a partner, though, we're fooling
ourselves," she said. "Abu Mazen is a form of fooling
ourselves." Livni acknowledged that while Abbas finally
"seems determined," he is weaker now than he was before the
elections. Livni called Abbas "an address, but not a
partner," adding, "We can send humanitarian aid to an
address, but we cannot negotiate with it." She said that
Abbas has proven incapable of stopping terrorism, ending
incitement, and curtailing the influence of Islamic extremism
in education.


4. (C) Senator Lieberman said that former PA Chief
Negotiator Saeb Erekat told him that he hopes the situation
will deteriorate sufficiently to enable Abbas to dissolve the
Palestinian Legislative Council and call new elections within
several months, or at least by the end of the year. Livni
said that Abbas and Erekat should discuss this plan with the
Europeans as well.

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LIVNI: WE WILL NOT INVOLVE PALESTINIANS IN "CONVERGENCE"
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5. (C) Senator Lieberman asked Livni whether the GOI plans
to introduce any sort of initiative to involve the
Palestinians in the convergence plan (A/PM Olmert's policy of
evacuating isolated West Bank settlements and making the
separation barrier Israel's eastern border). Senator
Lieberman noted that discussion of convergence with a
credible Palestinian partner might lead to final status
talks. Livni said that Israeli leaders lack a partner with
whom they could develop an initiative. "We only want to talk
about a final status agreement if it is possible to achieve
one," she added. Livni stressed that unilateralism is not an
Israeli choice or ideology. "Israeli politicians know that
without a partner, we must take our future into our own
hands. We have to take care of our own security interests."

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LIVNI: GOI SEEKS USG HELP IN DETERMINING INTERESTS IN WB
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6. (C) Senator Lieberman said that there is bi-partisan
support in the U.S. Congress for Israel. Livni said that the
U.S. and Israel must now reach an understanding about their
respective interests in the convergence plan, and then
convince the international community to support the new
border. "Our next steps are not truly unilateral," Livni
said. "They are to be taken with the U.S. and, we hope, also
with the Europeans." The GOI will need to retain control of
"certain interests, such as water, holy places, and air
space," she said. Livni emphasized that the GOI seeks to
consult with the USG about these issues. She said that the
USG is "essential in building international understanding" as
to why "Israel wants to withdraw, but must hold on to some
interests."

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LIVNI: PALESTINIAN STATEHOOD RESOLVES THE REFUGEE ISSUE
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7. (C) Livni said she anticipates that in response to
Israel's establishment of defensible borders, the
Palestinians will unilaterally declare statehood. In her
view, such a declaration would resolve the issue of
Palestinian refugees. Livni referred to President Bush's
letter of assurance of April 14, 2004, which she said
supports this view. She noted that the President's letter
also stated that it is unrealistic to expect that the outcome
of final status talks will lead to a return to previous
borders. "Before these two statements," she said, "I did not
support disengagement." Livni said that she hopes the UN
will ensure that any new Palestinian state is not a terrorist
state, and that it will "take Resolution 194 off the books."

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LIVNI: WE WANT A LARGE GOVERNING COALITION
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8. (C) Livni said she anticipates that the new Israeli
governing coalition will be broad and include some 84 MKs out
of the Knesset's total of 120. "We want a coalition large
enough that no single party can threaten it," she said.
Livni said that the coalition will probably include Kadima
(29 MK's),Labor (19),Shas (12),Yisrael Beiteinu (11),Gil
Pensioners (7),and United Torah Judaism (6). Meretz (5) was
invited as well, she said, but will not join a government
that includes Yisrael Beiteinu Chairman Avigdor Lieberman.
(Note: Since this meeting, A/PM Olmert completed coalition
agreements with the Labor, Pensioners, and Shas parties, is
poised to form a coalition of 67 MKs, and is planning on
introducing his new government on May 4 for Knesset approval.
End note.)

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LIVNI: RUSSIA IS BECOMING "PROBLEMATIC"
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9. (C) Livni made a point of adding at the end of the
meeting that "the Russians are taking a problematic position
not only toward Iran, but on other issues as well."


10. (U) Senator Lieberman cleared this cable on May 2.

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JONES