Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06TELAVIV1728
2006-05-02 15:11:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Tel Aviv
Cable title:  

OLMERT'S NARROW COALITION GOVERNMENT: ROOM TO GROW?

Tags:  PREL PGOV PINR IS GOI INTERNAL 
pdf how-to read a cable
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

021511Z May 06
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 001728 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR IS GOI INTERNAL
SUBJECT: OLMERT'S NARROW COALITION GOVERNMENT: ROOM TO GROW?

REF: TEL AVIV 1617

This message is Sensitive But Unclassified. Please treat
accordingly.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 001728

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR IS GOI INTERNAL
SUBJECT: OLMERT'S NARROW COALITION GOVERNMENT: ROOM TO GROW?

REF: TEL AVIV 1617

This message is Sensitive But Unclassified. Please treat
accordingly.


1. (U) Summary: Israel's 31st government, comprising 25
ministers from the Kadima, Labor, Shas and the Pensioners
parties, is scheduled to be sworn into office on May 4, after
Acting Prime Minister Olmert presents his Cabinet to the
Knesset. At that time, Olmert will announce the basic lines
of his government's policy and the composition and
distribution of functions among the ministers, and ask for an
expression of confidence from the full Knesset. It remains
entirely possible that Olmert will add additional coalition
partners -- such as UTJ (the other ultra-orthodox party),
rightist Yisrael Beiteinu, or left-wing Meretz. His proposed
Cabinet list (see para 4 below) includes some nominees of
relatively lower stature who could be asked, in the greater
interest of forming a stronger government, to step aside,
allowing Olmert flexibility to incorporate one or more
additional parties in the government at the last minute or
down the road. End Summary.

-------------- --------------
What does it mean? Not necessarily finished business ...
-------------- --------------


2. (SBU) Described by one pundit as the "broadest narrow
government ever established," Olmert's proposed government is
decidedly centrist -- and civilian -- in composition. Labor
Party Chairman Amir Peretz will lead the Defense Ministry,
resulting in a political demotion for Shaul Mofaz, the
current office-holder and the lone retired general officer in
Olmert's cabinet, to the Transportation Ministry. Olmert's
government includes the largest ultra-orthodox religious
party, Shas, at the cost of substantial, promised budgetary
handouts for its constituents, but no ministerial portfolios
that would allow Shas to meddle with West Bank policy
matters. Pursuant to its coalition agreement, Shas's
commitment to convergence policy is ambiguous, but its
participation in Olmert's government is already viewed by the
right-wing National Religious Party as betrayal of the
settler cause of Greater Israel.


3. (SBU) While Olmert still hopes to bring rightist Yisrael
Beiteinu on board as an additional inoculation against

right-wing threats, he does not have much to offer its party
leader, Avigdor Lieberman, who had sought the Internal
Security Ministry, but was barred from this appointment due
to an ongoing police investigation. Olmert may yet entice
Lieberman with another portfolio, and that possibility may
explain Olmert's reluctance to recruit the left-wing Meretz
party, whose leader says he will not join a coalition that
includes Yisrael Beiteinu. More likely than either of these
coalition expansion options is a deal with United Torah
Judaism (UTJ),whose leaders Olmert knows well from his time
as mayor of Jerusalem. Moreover, UTJ's price -- deputy
ministers and additional social benefits, but no Cabinet
slots -- may be worth it to Olmert, who could nonetheless
offer UTJ Chairman Litzman the Social Welfare position that
Olmert has retained thus far. Independence Day (May 3)
barbecues and gatherings will provide Olmert and his
transition team with some additional time to do political
footwork in advance of the May 4 Knesset session.


4. (SBU) Olmert's government is not the largest in Israeli
history -- Sharon's first government comprised 28 ministers
-- but it could expand if additional parties join his
coalition. Olmert could also reshuffle portfolios, including
by asking some nominees of relatively lower stature to step
aside, reapportion the number of ministries per party, or
re-negotiate with Labor the no-deputy-ministers decision.
Several non-ministerial appointments and responsibilities
were also announced to satisfy various political appetites,
some of which could be hived off to accommodate the needs of
newcomers. Kadima's most right-wing MK, Tzachi Hanegbi,
secured the chairmanship of the Knesset Committee on Foreign
Affairs and Security, a prestigious assignment that spared
Olmert from a confrontation with the Attorney General over a
ministerial appointment for someone under investigation.
Former Labor MK and current Kadima MK Dalia Itzik secured the
Knesset speaker slot, a female first in a Knesset with even
fewer women than the 16th Knesset. Nearly all of the
ministry assignments are ministerial retreads in one capacity
or another, the only new blood coming from Avi Dichter in
Kadima, Yuli Tamir in Labor, Ariel Atias of Shas, and Yacov
Ben Yizri of the Pensioners. No Israeli-Arab MKs were
offered ministerial posts.

KADIMA MINISTERS (12)

Ehud Olmert, Prime Minister and Acting Minister of Social
Welfare (the latter job could be offered to UTJ).
Tzipi Livni, Alternate Prime Minister (i.e., next-in-line to
Olmert) and Minister of Foreign Affairs.
Shimon Peres, Vice Premier and Minister for Development of
the Negev, Galilee and regional economy.

Shaul Mofaz, Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of
Transportation, responsible for strategic dialogue.

Avraham Hirchson, Minister of Finance (former Chairman of the
Knesset Finance Committee).

Ronnie Bar-On, Minister of Interior.

Haim Ramon, Minister of Justice.

Meir Sheetrit, Minister of Construction and Housing,
responsible for Israel Lands Administration and for oversight
of the secret services.

Avi Dichter, Minister of Internal Security.

Gideon Ezra, Minister of Environment (job could be offered to
Meretz in a pinch).

Ze'ev Boim, Minister of Immigrant Absorption (job could be
offered to Lieberman in a pinch).

Jacob Edry, Minister without portfolio, responsible for
government-Knesset liaison.

LABOR MINISTERS (7)

Amir Peretz, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defense.

Yuli Tamir, Minister of Education.

Binyamin (Fouad) Ben-Eliezer, Minister of National
Infrastructure.

Yitzhak Herzog, Minister of Tourism.

Shalom Simchon, Minister of Agriculture (formerly served as
Minister of Agriculture).

Ophir Pines-Paz, Minister of Science, Culture, Sport and
Jerusalem Affairs (Science job could be split off).

Eitan Cabal, Minister without portfolio, responsible for the
Israel Broadcast Authority.

SHAS MINISTERS (4)

Eli Yishai, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Industry,
Trade and Labor.

Ariel Atias, Minister of Communications.

Meshulam Nehari, Minister without portfolio responsibile for
religious councils.

Yitzhak Cohen, Minister without portfolio in the Ministry of
Finance (a former deputy Finance Minister).

PENSIONERS MINISTERS (2)

Rafi Eitan, Minister without portfolio responsible for
pensioner affairs.

Yacov Ben Yizri, Minister of Health.

********************************************* ********************
Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv

You can also access this site through the State Department's
Classified SIPRNET website.
********************************************* ********************
JONES