Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06TELAVIV1617
2006-04-25 14:43:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tel Aviv
Cable title:  

OLMERT'S SUPER-COALITION DEALS SOW DISCONTENT,

Tags:  PGOV IS GOI INTERNAL 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 001617 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/25/2016
TAGS: PGOV IS GOI INTERNAL
SUBJECT: OLMERT'S SUPER-COALITION DEALS SOW DISCONTENT,
POINT TO NARROWER COALITION

Classified By: DCM Gene A. Cretz for reasons 1.4 (b,d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 001617

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/25/2016
TAGS: PGOV IS GOI INTERNAL
SUBJECT: OLMERT'S SUPER-COALITION DEALS SOW DISCONTENT,
POINT TO NARROWER COALITION

Classified By: DCM Gene A. Cretz for reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. SUMMARY: (C) The continuing and much bally-hooed
difficulties that Ehud Olmert is facing in forming what he
asserted would be a broad, 84-MK coalition government reflect
the "souk" political dynamic that, historically, has yielded
consistently narrow-majority Israeli governments. Olmert had
aimed -- at least rhetorically -- for a government that
reached from the left to the right, from pro-peace to
push-out-the-Arabs, from fiscally conservative to social
welfare bleeding hearts, with the religious parties thrown in
for good measure. With reality settling in, Olmert is now
making sounds of a narrower coalition -- perhaps as low as 66
seats, if Shas and Yisrael Beinteinu, for example, walk away
with their 23 seats and Meretz then brings in five seats --
that follows in the traditions of Israel's governments. He
is still pledging to form a coalition, regardless of size, by
May 4, the end of his initial 28-day period for doing so, but
he could well end up taking negotiations into the oft-used
14-day extension period allowed by law. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) Olmert had been touting since his election win an
84-member coalition consisting of centrist Kadima's 29 MKs,
left-center Labor's 19 MKs, rightist Yisrael Beiteinu's 11
MKs, the seven MKs from the Pensioners Party, and the total
of 18 MKs from the religious Shas and United Torah Judaism
parties. That constellation left Olmert facing -- even with
a bloated 27-minister Cabinet -- frantic competition among
and within parties for specific high-powered Cabinet slots,
even before anyone has begun to address parties' serious
budgetary demands and divisiveness on peace process issues.
In particular, some Kadima loyalists and Labor heavy-hitters
(some self-identified) have been shocked, shocked at not
having been offered the appointments they had sought. Right
off the bat, Shas and Yisrael Beiteinu balked at what
ministries they were to receive.


3. (C) The trading remains ongoing, but among principal
deals, Olmert and Labor leader Peretz agreed that Labor would
get seven Cabinet slots, with Peretz himself going to Defense
rather than to Finance, which he had sought. Kadima would

retain Finance, Foreign Affairs, and Justice. Widespread
media criticism of Olmert and Peretz for forming a "bloated"
Cabinet of 27 ministers -- instead of the traditional 23 --
as well as demands by Shas and Yisrael Beiteinu for
additional ministries prompted Olmert to press Peretz to cede
Labor's seventh seat. When Peretz refused, Olmert instead
convinced him that the government should have no deputy
ministers, except for a single slot promised to United Torah
Judaism. That decision, which must still be approved by both
Labor and Kadima, cut the rug out from under a gaggle of
largely self-identified deputy minister contenders and has
drawn criticism from several parties. Most indicative is the
criticism of the decision from within Labor, where sources
are publicly questioning the ability of their own party
leader to handle the Defense Ministry without an experienced
deputy.


4. (C) Among the other unhappy contenders who may or may not
end up in the dust bin:

-- In what some are terming the shortest tenure of an MK in
Israeli history, Uriel Reichman -- considered a big catch by
Kadima during its formation -- resigned his Knesset seat,
quit politics and returned to academia April 24 when he
learned that he would not get the Education Ministry. Labor
MK and closest Peretz confidant Yuli Tamir is to get the job
as part of the deal that brought Labor in as senior coalition
partner. Reichman claims that PM Ariel Sharon had promised
him the education portfolio, and, in an act that has won him
some ridicule, Reichman rejected Olmert's consolation prize
of the high-profile Justice Ministry.

-- Defense Minister and first-time MK Shaul Mofaz, who had
firmly pledged to stick with his old Likud party last fall --
until he lost badly in Likud leadership elections and
followed Ariel Sharon to Kadima -- will lose Defense, to be
replaced, if the deals hold, by Peretz, a security rookie.
Mofaz has few friends within Kadima, where last fall's party
switch and his ego -- and the absence of Ariel Sharon -- have
cut his power. Absent some cataclysm, Mofaz may have to
settle -- at best -- for a low-end portfolio.

-- Former Ben Gurion University President and first-time MK
Avishai Braverman, depicted as Labor's newfound economy
expert during the campaign, will likely not receive any
ministerial position, despite his placement as number four on
Labor's Knesset list. An accomplished self-promoter
considered by many "a legend in his own mind," Braverman
could follow Reichman out the door if he does not get a
position he deems worthy.

-- MKs Ami Ayalon and Efraim Sneh, both heralded as Labor
security experts, will likely not receive any ministerial
appointments. Sneh, a long-time MK, former deputy defense
minister and brigadier general, and perceived contender for
the Labor leadership, had been pegged to be Peretz's
"experienced" deputy minister of defense. Ayalon, a former
admiral and Shin Bet chief with an unbounded ego, had
reportedly seen himself as a minister, preferably at Defense.

-- MKs Majallie Whbee, Marina Solodkin, Eli Aflalo, Ronit
Tirosh, and Ruhama Avraham, all of whom followed Sharon from
Likud to form Kadima, and Labor MKs Michael Melchior and Orit
Noked, appear, according to the current version of the
Olmert-Peretz deal, to have lost out on the deputy
ministerial positions on which they had been planning.


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