WITHERED LIKUD: SHALOM DESPERATELY MANEUVERS TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEL AVIV 001612

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/25/2016
TAGS: PGOV IS GOI INTERNAL
SUBJECT: WITHERED LIKUD: SHALOM DESPERATELY MANEUVERS TO
DISLODGE BIBI

Classified By: Political Counselor Norman Olsen for reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) With the rest of the nation focused on the evolving
makeup of the future governing coalition, the Likud faction's
number two, Silvan Shalom, has started what will be at best a
pained and drawn out process and at worst a doomed attempt to
dislodge Likud Chairman Binyamin Netanyahu. Netanyahu is
poised, as head of the largest party likely to remain outside
the governing coalition, to lead the Knesset opposition.
Likud's measly showing of 12 Knesset seats in the March 28
elections -- down from 38 in the 2003 elections -- has mired
the party in an internal blame game, with former Foreign
Minister Shalom seeking a Likud Central Committee vote to
hold early party primaries in a bid to unseat Netanyahu.


2. (C) Likud MK Gilad Erdan, number four on Likud's Knesset
list, and Netanyahu advisor Oren Helman told poloff in
separate conversations April 25 that it is likely Shalom,
long a power broker and patron within the Likud Central
Committee, will manage to garner the 600 signatures of the
Central Committee's membership of 2,900 necessary to call a
Central Committee meeting to discuss the issue. They both
predicted, however, that Netanyahu would not in any event
agree to set a date for the Central Committee meeting,
forcing Shalom to appeal the decision to Likud's internal
court. Both said that the court is likely to find that it is
unreasonable for the party to hold primaries so far in
advance of the next scheduled elections, some four years off.
They agreed that even if the court agrees to allow the
Central Committee to meet, if the matter comes to a vote, the
Central Committee is also likely to find it unreasonable to
call primaries now. Erdan and Helman said that if the
Central Committee does address the matter at all, it is
possible that it would agree on a compromise between the
Netanyahu and Shalom camps and set party primaries for next
year. Helman and Erdan questioned the wisdom of Shalom's
initiative, since both cited internal Likud polls that show
that Shalom currently could not successfully challenge
Netanyahu. Helman claimed that Netanyahu won 50 percent
support in one poll, with Shalom garnering only some 20
percent. If Erdan and Helman are correct in their view of
primaries next year, Netanyahu would have that year to
rebuild a badly weakened and indebted Likud.


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