Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06TELAVIV1523
2006-04-18 14:58:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Tel Aviv
Cable title:
SENATOR LIEBERMAN MEETS LIEBERMAN
how-to read a cableThis record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 001523
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR KDEM PINS KPAL IS JO IR IZ LE ISRAEL RELATIONS GOI INTERNAL
SUBJECT: SENATOR LIEBERMAN MEETS LIEBERMAN
This Message is Sensitive But Unclassified. Please Treat
Accordingly.
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 001523
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR KDEM PINS KPAL IS JO IR IZ LE ISRAEL RELATIONS GOI INTERNAL
SUBJECT: SENATOR LIEBERMAN MEETS LIEBERMAN
This Message is Sensitive But Unclassified. Please Treat
Accordingly.
1. (SBU) Summary. Senator Joseph Lieberman met with Yisrael
Beiteinu Party chairman Avigdor Lieberman on April 14 to
discuss the political landscape in Israel. Avigdor, fresh
from a negotiating session with the lead Kadima Party
negotiator, Yoram Turbovitz, expressed confidence that his
party would be included in the next Israeli government and
that he would secure the Internal Security portfolio he
seeks. In a matter-of-fact tone, Avigdor described how
developments in Iran, Iraq and the Palestinian Authority
could derail Acting Primer Minister Olmert's timetable for
unilateral withdrawal from additional areas in the West Bank,
moves which Avigdor does not support. End Summary.
--------------
Elections
--------------
2. (SBU) Avigdor Lieberman estimated that 65-70 percent of
the Russian-speaking voters in Israel voted for his party,
Yisrael Beiteinu. He attributed the party's success to its
track record and the consistency of his political message,
which, he claimed, "addressed what others are afraid to say."
The March 28 elections did not reveal a "clear direction,
left or right," in Avigdor's view. Likud voters --
particularly Sephardic voters in development towns -- were
damaged by Netanyahu's policy. Consequently, many of the
Likud Sephardim voted for Labor, and some voted for Shas. A
corresponding number of Azkhenazi voters in the Labor party,
however, switched to Kadima, in Avigdor's analysis. Avigdor
said he believed it would be very difficult to achieve a
stable government with a broad coalition comprising the
religious parties (presumably, the two haredim parties: Shas
and Shabbat and Torah Judaism),Labor, Kadima and Yisrael
Beiteinu. "It will be impossible to keep the balance between
the Left and Right, or take a decision on policy," Avigdor
added. Despite this assessment, Avigdor reaffirmed that he
believed he would serve in the next government.
--------------
Leadership
--------------
3. (SBU) Avigdor bemoaned the lack of Israeli leadership,
harking back to the Begin era as the last example of a Prime
Minister who commanded wide support. Avigdor appeared to
commend Olmert for making a clear and open statement of his
political direction regarding the occupied territories, but
commented that he was not sure that Olmert will have the
opportunity to implement his concept. Avigdor reasoned that
it would take twenty months for Olmert to plan his project,
and, in the meantime, the "number one problem -- Iran" would
take center stage in Israel.
--------------
Iran/Iraq
--------------
4. (SBU) If the U.S. were to attack Iran, then Iran would
not be able to attack the U.S., Avigdor assessed, pointing
out, however, that Hizballah could attack Israel. He added
that U.S. decisions on Iraq would also play out in a way that
could negatively affect Israel: "If you leave and there is
anarchy in Iraq, then the Shiites in Iran, Iraq and Lebanon
will create a dangerous regional environment and the
possibility of deeper coordination with a Sunni axis in Gaza,
Judea and Samaria and Jordan," Avigdor posited. Senator
Lieberman responded that he did not anticipate a U.S. pullout
from Iraq in the foreseeable future. He asked Avigdor why
the issue of Iran would complicate Olmert's convergence plan.
Avigdor envisioned battles with Hizballah as a consequence
that Israel would have to prepare for. Moreover, Hamas' hold
on the Palestinians would strengthen over time. Avigdor
expressed "no hope for democratic change" in Iran or among
the Palestinians, and he dismissed the possibility that Hamas
will have to rig future elections to remain in power: "They
will win an open election."
--------------
Homeland Security
--------------
5. (SBU) A self-professed "do-er," Avigdor claimed that
Olmert wants him to serve as the Minister of Internal
Security and "make it serious, like the (U.S.) Homeland
Security Department." He explained that many homeland
security functions -- including drug enforcement -- are
located in other ministries. The Internal Security ministry
manages the Israeli national police, which, Avigdor said,
lacked enough officers to deal with crime or illegal
immigrants. He claimed that these illegal immigrants from
Eastern Europe, Asia, Africa number some 400,000 in Israel
(including, in his analysis, the occupied territories, where,
he claimed, many "Jordanians" were illegally residing).
Senator Lieberman mentioned his own role in spearheading the
legislation that led to the creation of this department from
22 separate agencies, and offered to share his legislative
experience. The Senator also described the immigration
policy debate in the U.S. Congress.
--------------
Israeli Arabs and the Clash of Civilizations
--------------
6. (SBU) In response to a question posed by the Senator,
Avigdor maintained that Hamas exerts a very strong influence
over Israeli Arabs. Conflating Hamas with the Northern
Islamic Movement in Israel, Avigdor predicted that most Arab
mayors will be affiliated with Hamas after the 2008 municipal
elections. "We are weak. Most Arabs and Palestinians think
they will win this dispute," Avigdor commented. He went on
to argue that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is but a
manifestation of the clash between fundamentalist Islam and
the West. Israel is on the front line, Avigdor concluded,
and "Saudi Arabia is your biggest problem: Its collapse will
be more dangerous than Iraq or Iran together." The Senator
affirmed that U.S. support for Israel is stronger than ever
and that the American people know that the U.S. and Israel
are on the same side of this very different kind of war.
7. (U) The Codel cleared this message.
********************************************* ********************
Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv
You can also access this site through the State Department's
Classified SIPRNET website.
********************************************* ********************
JONES
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR KDEM PINS KPAL IS JO IR IZ LE ISRAEL RELATIONS GOI INTERNAL
SUBJECT: SENATOR LIEBERMAN MEETS LIEBERMAN
This Message is Sensitive But Unclassified. Please Treat
Accordingly.
1. (SBU) Summary. Senator Joseph Lieberman met with Yisrael
Beiteinu Party chairman Avigdor Lieberman on April 14 to
discuss the political landscape in Israel. Avigdor, fresh
from a negotiating session with the lead Kadima Party
negotiator, Yoram Turbovitz, expressed confidence that his
party would be included in the next Israeli government and
that he would secure the Internal Security portfolio he
seeks. In a matter-of-fact tone, Avigdor described how
developments in Iran, Iraq and the Palestinian Authority
could derail Acting Primer Minister Olmert's timetable for
unilateral withdrawal from additional areas in the West Bank,
moves which Avigdor does not support. End Summary.
--------------
Elections
--------------
2. (SBU) Avigdor Lieberman estimated that 65-70 percent of
the Russian-speaking voters in Israel voted for his party,
Yisrael Beiteinu. He attributed the party's success to its
track record and the consistency of his political message,
which, he claimed, "addressed what others are afraid to say."
The March 28 elections did not reveal a "clear direction,
left or right," in Avigdor's view. Likud voters --
particularly Sephardic voters in development towns -- were
damaged by Netanyahu's policy. Consequently, many of the
Likud Sephardim voted for Labor, and some voted for Shas. A
corresponding number of Azkhenazi voters in the Labor party,
however, switched to Kadima, in Avigdor's analysis. Avigdor
said he believed it would be very difficult to achieve a
stable government with a broad coalition comprising the
religious parties (presumably, the two haredim parties: Shas
and Shabbat and Torah Judaism),Labor, Kadima and Yisrael
Beiteinu. "It will be impossible to keep the balance between
the Left and Right, or take a decision on policy," Avigdor
added. Despite this assessment, Avigdor reaffirmed that he
believed he would serve in the next government.
--------------
Leadership
--------------
3. (SBU) Avigdor bemoaned the lack of Israeli leadership,
harking back to the Begin era as the last example of a Prime
Minister who commanded wide support. Avigdor appeared to
commend Olmert for making a clear and open statement of his
political direction regarding the occupied territories, but
commented that he was not sure that Olmert will have the
opportunity to implement his concept. Avigdor reasoned that
it would take twenty months for Olmert to plan his project,
and, in the meantime, the "number one problem -- Iran" would
take center stage in Israel.
--------------
Iran/Iraq
--------------
4. (SBU) If the U.S. were to attack Iran, then Iran would
not be able to attack the U.S., Avigdor assessed, pointing
out, however, that Hizballah could attack Israel. He added
that U.S. decisions on Iraq would also play out in a way that
could negatively affect Israel: "If you leave and there is
anarchy in Iraq, then the Shiites in Iran, Iraq and Lebanon
will create a dangerous regional environment and the
possibility of deeper coordination with a Sunni axis in Gaza,
Judea and Samaria and Jordan," Avigdor posited. Senator
Lieberman responded that he did not anticipate a U.S. pullout
from Iraq in the foreseeable future. He asked Avigdor why
the issue of Iran would complicate Olmert's convergence plan.
Avigdor envisioned battles with Hizballah as a consequence
that Israel would have to prepare for. Moreover, Hamas' hold
on the Palestinians would strengthen over time. Avigdor
expressed "no hope for democratic change" in Iran or among
the Palestinians, and he dismissed the possibility that Hamas
will have to rig future elections to remain in power: "They
will win an open election."
--------------
Homeland Security
--------------
5. (SBU) A self-professed "do-er," Avigdor claimed that
Olmert wants him to serve as the Minister of Internal
Security and "make it serious, like the (U.S.) Homeland
Security Department." He explained that many homeland
security functions -- including drug enforcement -- are
located in other ministries. The Internal Security ministry
manages the Israeli national police, which, Avigdor said,
lacked enough officers to deal with crime or illegal
immigrants. He claimed that these illegal immigrants from
Eastern Europe, Asia, Africa number some 400,000 in Israel
(including, in his analysis, the occupied territories, where,
he claimed, many "Jordanians" were illegally residing).
Senator Lieberman mentioned his own role in spearheading the
legislation that led to the creation of this department from
22 separate agencies, and offered to share his legislative
experience. The Senator also described the immigration
policy debate in the U.S. Congress.
--------------
Israeli Arabs and the Clash of Civilizations
--------------
6. (SBU) In response to a question posed by the Senator,
Avigdor maintained that Hamas exerts a very strong influence
over Israeli Arabs. Conflating Hamas with the Northern
Islamic Movement in Israel, Avigdor predicted that most Arab
mayors will be affiliated with Hamas after the 2008 municipal
elections. "We are weak. Most Arabs and Palestinians think
they will win this dispute," Avigdor commented. He went on
to argue that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is but a
manifestation of the clash between fundamentalist Islam and
the West. Israel is on the front line, Avigdor concluded,
and "Saudi Arabia is your biggest problem: Its collapse will
be more dangerous than Iraq or Iran together." The Senator
affirmed that U.S. support for Israel is stronger than ever
and that the American people know that the U.S. and Israel
are on the same side of this very different kind of war.
7. (U) The Codel cleared this message.
********************************************* ********************
Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv
You can also access this site through the State Department's
Classified SIPRNET website.
********************************************* ********************
JONES