Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06TELAVIV1218
2006-03-30 04:41:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Tel Aviv
Cable title:  

ELECTION RESULTS OFFER MANY OPTIONS FOR OLMERT

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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 TEL AVIV 001218 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM PINR IS GOI INTERNAL ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: ELECTION RESULTS OFFER MANY OPTIONS FOR OLMERT

REF: A) TEL AVIV 1198 B) TEL AVIV 1193

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 TEL AVIV 001218

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM PINR IS GOI INTERNAL ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: ELECTION RESULTS OFFER MANY OPTIONS FOR OLMERT

REF: A) TEL AVIV 1198 B) TEL AVIV 1193


1. Summary: The March 28 election results confirmed a
Kadima plurality, the status quo of Labor, the relative
demise of Likud and less so of the religious Zionist parties,
the stability of the ultra-Orthodox and Arab parties, the
surprise electoral success of the Pensioners' Party, and the
long-predicted rise of Avigdor Lieberman's rightist Yisrael
Beiteinu. Official results will not be published until April
5, after the Central Election Committee counts absentee
ballots and allocates votes among the party lists that passed
the 2 percent threshold for participating in the 17th
Knesset. President Katsav will undoubtedly entrust the job
of forming a governing coalition to Kadima Party leader Ehud
Olmert, perhaps as soon as April 1. Katsav has 14 days from
the election to ask a faction leader to form a coalition.
That leader then has 28 days, with a possible 14-day
extension, to form his government, making maximum total of 56
days from the election, or May 23. Olmert and others are
likely, however, to accelerate the process as much as
possible in order to complete government formation prior to
or as closely as possible to April 14, the end of Olmert's
original 100-day term as acting prime minister. Meanwhile,
speculation about coalition options began the moment exit
poll results were released, and the major parties are now
actively working to secure positions, establish posile
coalition principles, and wrest promises from each other.
End Summary.

--------------
ELECTION RESULTS
--------------


2. Kadima won fewer seats -- 28 -- than polls predicted.
Voter apathy (Ref A),Olmert's hubris in predicting an easy
victory, the absence of Sharon's dynamism. and voters'
greater concern for social/economic matters than for national
security policy questions -- due largely to Amir Peretz's
focus on social issues -- were all contributing factors. The
Labor Party dropped only a single seat from poll prediction
essentially holding its own for a second place finish at 20
seats, and besting the previously dominant Likud Party by a
wide margin. Likud's strength shrunk to 11, effectively
pushing out ofthe Knesset anti-disengagement Likud MK Uzi

Landau, as well as party secretary Yisrael Katz.


3. The religious Zionist joint list of the National Union
and National Religious Party did not profit from Likud's
demise, as they brought in just nine seats as a group.
Instead, the darling of the Russian-speaking immigrant vote,
Avigdor Lieberman of the Yisrael Beiteinu Party, emerged --
with 12 seats -- as the dominant player in the so-called
"national" camp of the Israeli electorate. Both
ultra-Orthodox parties -- Shas and "Torah and Shabbat
Judaism" (formerly known as United Torah Judaism) --
succeeded in increasing their representation, winning 13 and
six seats respectively, as did the three main Arab parties,
which won 10 seats (Ref B). Embassy observers and Israeli
pundits attribute the seven-seat surprise success of the dark
horse the Pensioners' party to a protest by voters, both
young and old, displeased with Israel's major parties and
concerned about their personal future.

-------------- ---
VOTERS MORE CONCERNED WITH SOCIAL-
ECONOMIC ISSUES THAN NATIONAL SECURITY POLICY
-------------- ---


4. Embassy officers and FSNs spent hours on election day
speaking to voters -- in Hebrew, Russian, and Arabic -- and
election officials in over 30 polling stations in 12 cities
and towns from Nazareth in the north to the outskirts of
Beersheva in the south, and to Ashdod and Jaffa along the
coast, as well as Petah Tikva, Bnei Brak, Ramat Gan, and Bat
Yam in the suburban hinterland around Tel Aviv. Strong and
consistent trends -- albeit anecdotal -- emerged that help
explain the election results. Most striking was a broad
sense of apathy and disenchantment stemming from what many
voters termed politicians' perceived corruption and failure
to deliver on promises. An elderly woman, asked by an
officer what she most hoped to achieve through her vote,
said, "That they get out of their seats and start doing
something."


5. Voters in many stations told officers they voted only out
of civic duty; others said they voted against one party or
another -- usually one of the three major parties -- rather
than in favor of a party. Many Israeli election officials
confirmed to officers that these elections had less intensity
than did previous elections; some voters accounted for this
phenomenon by describing a blurring of lines between
traditional left and right. Officers also noted that the
majority of voters focused on social and economic issues in
response to direct questions about their political
priorities. Although many made general reference to
"security," few specified what they meant by this term and
spoke more energetically about social issues. Specifically,
officers heard little to nothing about withdrawal from the
territories, even in response to direct questions about this
issue.


--------------
NEXT STEPS
--------------


6. Israeli President Katsav has indicated that he intends to
move quickly to consult possible coalition leaders, and there
is no doubt that he will follow the unbroken Israeli practice
of offering to the leader of the largest Knesset faction --
Ehud Olmert -- the opportunity to form a government. The
decline in strength of the Likud Party and the National
Union/National Religious Party means that Olmert faces no
threat from any blocking effort by far right-wing Israeli
parties. Instead, Olmert has the opportunity to form a
coalition of his choosing. he can go with the Left
(principally Labor),which would "cost" more in terms of
posts and budget allocaitons for social programs, but yield
immediate support for Olmert's convergence plan.
alternatively, he can go with Yisrael Beiteinu and the
ultra-Orthodox parties, which would help Kadima divide and
neutralize opposition on the right, but make immediate
progress on Olmert's convergence program more difficult in
the short term. Other combinations are possible, and, again,
will depend on the asking prices set by party leaders as well
as the inclination of Kadima leaders, who may seek a broad,
inclusive coalition, or opt to form a narrow, more manageable
coalition.

--------------
COALITION-BUILDING TO BEGIN
--------------


7. Here are the politicians of the leading parties (in
order of electoral strength) to watch as coalition partners
coalesce over the coming days:

-- Kadima (28): A Kadima campaign contact told poloff that
Olmert is directly involved in conducting coalition
negotiations, and that the Pensioners are already on board.
Talks with the ultra-Orthodox are underway, and eventually,
the contact said, a coalition will likely include Labor --
but it all depends on the political "price" demanded. The
well-informed Maariv reporter, Ben Caspit, claimed in a March
29 report that Olmert had spoken with Lieberman and had
already closed a deal with Agudat Yisrael, the leadership of
the Torah and Shabbat Judaism Party (see below). Contacts
indicate the Kadima will form a three-person coalition
negotiating team that will include KAdima legal advisor Eitan
Haberman and two others yet to be named. MK Haim Ramon is
also likely to play a significant role in Kadima's coalition
negotiations.

-- Labor (20): Labor MK Yuli Tamir, number five on Labor's
list, told poloff that the coalition negotiating team will
likely be determined within the next few days, but she
speculated that it will include herself, Isaac Herzog (number
two) and Labor Party Secretary-General Eitan Cabel (number
seven).

Shas (13): MKs Amnon Cohen and Meshulam Nehari told poloff,
separately, that Shas had already engaged in informal
discussions with Kadima on joining the coalition. Nehari
said that Shas Party leader Eli Yishai is personally involved
in the talks. Both Cohen and Nehari said no formal
negotiating team yet exists. Nehari claimed that Lieberman's
party (Yisrael Beiteinu) would lead the opposition now,
implying -- since Shas is now larger than Yisrael Beiteinu
and Likud and this would be entitled to lead the opposition
if it remains outside the coalition -- that Shas does hope to
join the Kadima-led coalition. Furthermore, Shas spiritual
leader Rabbi Ovadia Yossef, whose word is law for party
members, reportedly told Shas party leaders that he wants
them "in government." In the 1990's, Rabbi Ovadia decreed
that it is permissible to give up land if this saves lives --
a precedent that could allow the party flexibility to finesse
a deal with Kadima.

Yisrael Beiteinu (12): Party leader Avigdor Lieberman told
his supporters on election night that they have become "the
largest party of the national camp" -- a statement that could
presage his quest to become opposition leader -- or a signal
to Kadima that he "won't give up on principles" should Kadima
try to entice him to join the coalition. Number two on the
list, Yuri Shtern, told Channel 10 last night that "We will
be the party without which there will be no coalition."

Likud (11): Party leader Binyamin "Bibi" Netanyahu gave a
defiant, defensive speech after the exit polls came in,
pinning the blame for Likud's showing on Sharon. Likudniks
who attended Bibi's speech, such as MK Moshe Kahlon (number
three) and MK Gilad Erdan (number four),told poloff that
Likud is likely to remain in the opposition, but they did not
completely rule out joining a Kadima-led coalition. Some
Likud leaders, such as Silvan Shalom, who was conspicuously
absent from post-election events at Likud headquarters, could
seek to oust Netanyahu from the leadership, a move that could
pave the way for a possible partnership with Kadima down the
road.

Pensioners' Party (7): Party Chair Rafi Eitan pitched the
idea of including the pensioners when Sharon created Kadima,
according to press reports, but Olmert's team did not offer
realistic slots on the Kadima list. Post-election, Eitan
reportedly outlined his price for joining the coalition: "We
will be only in any future coalition that allows us to take
care of our issue -- the pensioner issue... I am convinced
that within a week you'll see that we are achieving our
goals." Ben Caspit reported in Maariv that Kadima PR guru,
Reuven Adler, is already in touch with the Pensioners and
that talks are already at "an advanced stage."

Torah and Shabbat Judaism (6): Kadima strategists, including
Avigdor Yitzhaki, have long predicted that Kadima would seek
out the former "United Torah Judaism Party" as a partner in
its coalition since its "price" will be much less than that
of Shas. The Agudat Yisrael faction leader, Yakov Litzman,
who leads this mostly-Azkhenazi ultra-Orthodox party is most
likely the point person for coalition negotiations.

Meretz (4): Party leader Yossi Beilin's pre-election
admonition that Meretz would not join a coalition that
included Yisrael Beiteinu may have been a gambit designed to
reassure those within his party who criticized his personal
chumminess with Avigdor Lieberman. Post-election, it may
mean that Meretz is excluded from consideration. Its
relatively insignificant size and its leftist image may be
perceived by Kadima as more of a liability than an asset.

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