Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06TELAVIV1193
2006-03-27 14:44:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Tel Aviv
Cable title:  

ISRAELI-ARAB PARTIES APPEAR SET TO REMAIN ON

Tags:  PGOV PHUM KDEM IS GOI INTERNAL ELECTIONS 
pdf how-to read a cable
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 001193 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM IS GOI INTERNAL ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: ISRAELI-ARAB PARTIES APPEAR SET TO REMAIN ON
PARLIAMENTARY MAP (C-NE6-00442)

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 001193

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM IS GOI INTERNAL ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: ISRAELI-ARAB PARTIES APPEAR SET TO REMAIN ON
PARLIAMENTARY MAP (C-NE6-00442)


1. (SBU) Summary: Recent polls show that rising Israeli-Arab
interest in the March 28 elections, possibly prompted by
fears of a growing right-wing Jewish vote, may yield up to 10
Knesset seats for Israeli-Arab parties, up two seats from the
current Knesset. Until this past week, polls have projected
low Israeli-Arab turnout, but a poll released March 24 shows
that turnout among Israeli-Arab voters would be 69 percent if
elections were held today, a percentage higher than in the
2003 Knesset election, and higher than that projected for the
general public. End summary.

--------------
Voter Turnout is Key
--------------


2. (SBU) Israel's some one-million Arab population, which
makes up about 20 percent of Israel's population, includes
about 550,000-600,000 eligible voters, a relatively low
proportion that is due to the Arab sector's large youth
population. Those Israeli-Arab voters constitute only about
12 percent of Israel's total of approximately five million
eligible voters. In addition, while some 70-80 percent of
these Israeli-Arab voters cast ballots for Arab parties in
the past two elections, the remaining voters cast their
ballots for non-Arab parties. A new law requiring that
political parties obtain two percent of the overall vote to
obtain Knesset representation, rather than the 1.5 percent
required in the past, has presented a challenge to the three
major Israeli-Arab parties -- United Arab List (UAL,
Islamist),Balad (Arab Nationalist),and Hadash (Jewish-Arab)
-- all of which are represented in the current Knesset.
Despite similar platforms that each call for the creation of
a Palestinian state and for equality between Jews and Arabs
within Israel, the three have resisted calls from the Arab
public that they unite under a single party list. As a
result, until recently, polls have shown that they risked
splitting the Arab vote so much that none of them would get
enough votes to pass the threshold. Arab community leaders
charge party leaders with allowing their egos to stand in the
way of unification.


3. (SBU) As Dr. Elie Rekhess of Tel Aviv University's Dayan
Center told a forum on the Israeli-Arab electorate March 21,
a low Jewish voter turnout, such as that projected for the

coming election, presents opportunities, but the Israeli-Arab
sector has been, at least until recently, suffering from its
own voter apathy problems. Accordingly, Israeli-Arab
political leaders must get out their people if they are to
benefit from the anticipated low Jewish-voter turnout. The
Arab voter turnout has been lower than the overall turnout in
the last five Knesset elections, with 2003 bringing a
particularly high gap between the Arab and overall turnouts.
Some 62 percent of Israeli Arabs voted in the 2003 Knesset
election, down 13 percent from the 1999 Knesset elections and
15 percent from the 1996 election, and well below even the
near record low 68 percent of the overall electorate in the
2003 election. The Israeli-Arab parties also face a
continuing, although apparently flagging challenge from the
long-standing elements that call for Israeli-Arab boycott of
all national elections.


4. (SBU) A March 24 poll indicates, however, that the recent
trend of lower than average Israeli-Arab participation thus
far may have shifted. The poll shows that were elections to
be held today, some 69 percent of the Israeli-Arab electorate
would vote. This poll and others released March 24 show that
were elections to be held today, the three Arab parties,
running separately, would win a total of nine or ten Knesset
seats, up from the eight seats indicated in earlier polls and
from their showing in the last election. Observers attribute
the turnaround to at least two factors: the growth of Avigdor
Lieberman's far-right Yisrael Beiteinu party, which calls for
re-arranging borders to exclude Israeli-Arabs from Israel,
and the recognition that the combination of low Israeli-Arab
turnout and the new higher threshold for Knesset seats could
preclude any Arab parties from winning seats. Rekhess
suggested that these reasons accounted for the recent
announcement by Umm el-Fahm Mayor and Northern Islamic
Movement leader Hashem Abdul-Rahman that he intends to vote.
The Northern Islamic Movement has traditionally advocated
boycotting national elections. Hanna Swaid, who is number
two on the Hadash list, claimed to Poloff March 23 that the
combination of Rahman's decision and concern about
Lieberman's popularity will increase voter turnout in the
Arab "triangle" towns, of which Umm el-Fahm is the largest,
that are home to 25 percent of Israel's Arab population.


5. (SBU) Swaid said that the Northern Islamic Movement is
not urging a boycott of the elections this year, as it has in
the past. The director of the Mossawa Advocacy Center for
Arab Citizens of Israel, Jafah Farah, told Poloff March 7
that some members of the Northern Islamic movement are, in
fact, actively participating in the election campaign. Swaid
said that Hadash's "get Umm el-Fahm in the Knesset" campaign,
as well as the fact that an Umm el-Fahm resident is number
four on Hadash's Knesset list, may be resonating with that
community. Mayor Rahman assessed that Hadash would get the
highest number of votes in Umm el-Fahm.


6. (SBU) Swaid also said that the Arab parties are doing
more this year to get out the vote on election day. He said
Hadash plans to spend 20-30 percent of its NIS one million
(USD 210,000) total campaign budget on getting out the vote
on election day. "We've also made practical arrangements for
election day. We're providing transportation. For the first
time, (leaders of the Arab parties) developed a joint
committee in each town...(to work) on this issue. This sort
of cooperation has never happened before. We realize that
not enough people might vote, and (we) would rather they show
up and vote for a rival Arab party than not vote at all."

--------------
The "Zionist" Competition
--------------


7. (SBU) With the fractious Arab parties consistently
excluded from governing coalitions, and a feeling by some
Israeli Arabs that their own leaders do little for their
communities, some 20 percent of Israeli Arab voters in the
last two elections cast ballots for left-leaning Jewish
majority or "Zionist" parties, principally Labor and Meretz,
for the social-welfare-oriented and ultra-orthodox Shas
party, and even in thin numbers for Likud. That support for
Zionist parties may be challenged this year. Dr. Rekhess
said that he does not recall an election campaign "where the
Arab parties invested so much energy against the Zionist
parties and on getting out the vote." According to a study
Rekhess released last November, nearly half of the Arab
electorate would have voted for the non-Arab parties had
elections been held at that time, with over one third of
those votes going to Labor and many to a Sharon-led Kadima.
The March 24 poll, however, shows that as high as 80 percent
of the Arab electorate would vote for one of the Arab parties
if elections were held today. The poll shows that Labor,
Kadima, Meretz and Likud would split the remaining 20 percent
of those voting, winning about nine, six, two, and 1.5
percent respectively. (Note: The pollster noted these were
approximate percentages. End note.)


8. (SBU) The mayor of the Arab village of Sakhnin, Sami
Eisa, and Rahman, both assessed to Poloff in separate
meetings in February and March, respectively, that only about
20 percent of voters in their communities would support the
"Zionist" parties this time around. Eisa, who said he had at
one time been close to joining Kadima, dismissed the pull of
Kadima in his community as ephemeral. Eisa said that soon
after Kadima's creation last November, he and other Arab
mayors had engaged in negotiations with then-PM Sharon on
joining Kadima, but that negotiations fell apart after
Sharon's hospitalization. According to Rahman, "Kadima made
a historic mistake" by not placing any Israeli Arabs in
realistic positions on the Kadima list. Kadima has included
one member of the Druze sect, which the majority of Israeli
Arabs do not consider as representative of their interests,
and placed its first Israeli Arab in the number 51 slot.




9. (SBU) Israel has never in its 58-year history had a
governing coalition that included Israeli-Arab political
parties, although such Israeli-Arab parties consistently win
some Knesset seats. Both the Jewish public and Jewish
political leaders acknowledge openly that for passage of all
most-significant legislation, such as that related to the
Palestinians and the budget, the votes that constitute the
threshold Knesset majority must be comprised exclusively of
votes by Jewish Knesset members. Dr. Rekhess, Hanna Swaid,
and Abir Kopty, a spokesperson for the Mossawa Advocacy
Center for Arab Citizens who also spoke at the March 21
forum, asserted that a feeling of disappointment nonetheless
lingers among the Israeli-Arab electorate that Arab parties
have not looked out for the interests of the Arab sector in
general. Kopty said that because the Arab parties have never
been in the government, many Israeli Arabs view their
influence as limited. Rekhess said that Labor Party Chairman
Amir Peretz's commitment to appoint an Israeli-Arab minister,
and Labor's placement of three Israeli Arabs in realistic
places on its Knesset list, and Peretz's overall left-leaning
economic policies appeals to some Arab voters.

********************************************* ********************
Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv

You can also access this site through the State Department's
Classified SIPRNET website.
********************************************* ********************
JONES