Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06TELAVIV1183
2006-03-24 16:41:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tel Aviv
Cable title:  

ISRAEL'S ELECTIONS AT THE HOME STRETCH: KADIMA

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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 001183 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/10/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM IS PINR GOI INTERNAL ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: ISRAEL'S ELECTIONS AT THE HOME STRETCH: KADIMA
REMAINS IN THE LEAD

Classified By: Ambassador Richard H. Jones. Reason 1.4 (B/D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 001183

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/10/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM IS PINR GOI INTERNAL ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: ISRAEL'S ELECTIONS AT THE HOME STRETCH: KADIMA
REMAINS IN THE LEAD

Classified By: Ambassador Richard H. Jones. Reason 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) Summary: The March 28 Israeli election will cement
the long-predicted victory of the new, centrist Kadima party
by a dominant plurality of the votes, with its sparring
partners, Labor and Likud, most likely coming in distant
second and third places, respectively. Neither Labor nor
Likud can expect a major, election-day surge in support,
despite unusually high numbers of supposedly undecided voters
and Amir Peretz's tireless campaigning, but Avigdor
Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu party could continue its steady
rise in popularity among right-leaning, Russian-speaking
voters to compete with Likud and Labor in the standings. The
relative results on the right will determine what options
Kadima has for a coalition that can co-opt the right and the
ultra-Orthodox without allowing leaders of those groups to
hold Olmert's "convergence" plan hostage to their
do-nothing-to-reward-Hamas mantras. Kadima also has as an
option a more costly (in terms of government positions or
"price" in budget deals),but perhaps more workable coalition
partnership with Labor-Meimad on the left. End Summary.

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CHALLENGE TO GET OUT THE VOTE
--------------


2. (C) The main challenge facing Kadima and other major
parties, notably Labor and Likud, remains voter apathy. Most
of Israel's liberal pundits bemoan the reported indifference
of the Israeli electorate, particularly at the center and on
the left. This trend is not new. Voter participation reached
its nadir in 2003, but voter apathy in that election was
primarily on the left, allowing Sharon's right-leaning Likud
party to secure a dominant 38 seats in the Knesset. (Note:
This apathy, by Israeli standards, meant a record low turnout
of some 68 percent.) Kadima, Labor and Likud activists, from
their respective party leaders on down, agree that low voter
turnout could hurt Israel's three mainstream parties more
than it will hurt parties on the extremes, particularly the
right. Thanks to Israel's proportional representation

electoral system, a really poor turnout -- low sixties in
Israeli terms -- would automatically benefit extremist
parties with small but committed memberships: on the right,
such as the National Union/National Religious Party; the
ultra-Orthodox, such as Shas and Torah and Shabbat Judaism
(formerly United Torah Judaism); and to a lesser extent the
single issue parties on the leftist fringe, such as the Green
Leaf Party (marijuana legalization) or the Pensioner's party.


--------------
ELECTIONS AS A REFERENDUM ON THE WAY AHEAD
--------------


3. (C) What will galvanize the indifferent or apathetic
voter? Olmert has framed the election as a referendum on
Kadima's "convergence plan" of unilateral actions to define
Israel's borders in a way that will incorporate major
settlement blocs and require withdrawals from other parts of
the West Bank. Kadima organizers hope that Olmert's actions
as acting prime minister will demonstrate that he is a man of
action, not just words. Evacuating the Amona outpost
signaled his intention to put law-breaking Israeli settlers
on notice, while his decision to lay siege to the Jericho
prison and apprehend the Palestinian suspects involved in the
assassination of one of the settlers' heroes marked an
opportunity to prove he is no dove when it comes to
responding to terrorism. To govern effectively, Olmert needs
to avoid the type of rebel-filled coalitions that marked
Sharon's successive governments. Kadima campaign organizers
say Olmert needs Kadima to win a minimum of 35 seats for him
to control a governing coalition; more than 40 seats will
ensure that Kadima needs only one or two political partners
to govern, a position that will allow Kadima to outmuscle
those who try to put the brakes on implementation of the
convergence plan.

--------------
ULTRA-ORTHODOX AMBIVALENCE ON "CONVERGENCE"
--------------


4. (C) Olmert's decision to lay out the general contours of
his plan ahead of the March 28 vote has forced political
leaders on the right, including potential coalition partners,
to react. Some of the ultra-Orthodox may defer to their
rabbis for political guidance on whether to join Kadima's
coalition post-election. That is the case for the mostly
Azkhenazi "Torah and Shabbat Judaism Party," which, some
Kadima strategists say they want to include in their ideal
coalition. Less malleable Shas leader Eli Yishai, whose
party could capture as many as 10 Knesset seats, has
announced that he opposes Olmert's plan -- but Shas history
demonstrates that the party will not fall on an ideological
sword in the short run, particularly with the prospect of a
payoff during the budget wheeling and dealing that will begin
almost immediately once the 17th Knesset convenes.

-------------- --------------
LIEBERMAN ON THE RISE, PARTICULARLY AMONG THE "RUSSIANS"
-------------- --------------


5. (C) The only surprise of this election campaign is the
rise of Avigdor Lieberman from the fringe to a position as a
potential powerbroker on the Israeli right. He will capture
a plurality of the Russian immigrant vote, which is the most
significant voting minority. Lieberman is busy castigating
Olmert's plan, but playing coy on a possible coalition with
Kadima. This is understandable -- he wants to rob Kadima and
Likud of as many "Russian" votes as he can to maximize
Yisrael Beiteinu's standing before yielding to Olmert's
possible entreaties after the election. Olmert has responded
to Lieberman's cockiness with a strong statement that any
coalition partner must support the Kadima plan, alerting
Russian voters that their man, Lieberman, is not assured of a
role in a Kadima-led government if Avigdor continues to
criticize Olmert's plans for further unilateral actions.
Kadima party organizers are, in turn, deploying their Russian
media star and low-ranking Kadima candidate, Anastasia
Michaeli, to wow Russian-speaking voters who have second
thoughts about Lieberman.

--------------
THE HOME STRETCH
--------------


6. (C) Dov Weissglas shared with the Ambassador Kadima's
current internal polling results, which predict roughly 35-40
seats for Olmert and his party. Contrary to press reports,
there were no signs of panic at Kadima headquarters only days
before elections, just preparations to put its efficient
campaign machinery to work on a round-the-clock basis. The
Kadima events organizer, Yaron Sharaby, told poloff that a
blitz of focused telephone calls to those who have shown an
interest in the party will be made this weekend, and events
to rally support will be put into motion.


7. (C) At a recent Kadima party rally in Israel's suburban
heartland of Nes Ziona, Kadima's campaign cheerleader,
Minister Meir Sheetrit, urged prospective Kadima supporters
to go to local Kadima offices and help engage Israeli voters.
In her effort to energize centrist voters, Foreign Minister
Tzipi Livni, whom Olmert has now indicated will be deputy
prime minister, told Kadima supporters that the Likud policy
of "No, No, No" represented a recipe for inaction. In the
"capital" city of the Israeli south, Beersheva, the local
Kadima campaign chairman told poloff that party organizers
have already enlisted 1,500 volunteers to help "get out the
vote" on election day. In a tour of local Kadima
headquarters, he demonstrated a well-organized and motivated
staff and described plans to call almost all of the city's
approximately 160,000 registered voters. On the Labor
campaign trail, Amir Peretz, has toured the northern and
southern hinterland in a final effort to drum up support for
his party. But Kadima observers note a subtle change in the
tone of his message, which suggests, to some in Kadima at
least, that he is preparing the Labor faithful for possible
compromises that will be necessary should Labor join a
Kadima-led coalition.

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