PERETZ, THE SHEPHERD WHO AWAITS THE RETURN OF HIS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TEL AVIV 001086

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/17/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL KPAL KWBG IS GOI INTERNAL ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: PERETZ, THE SHEPHERD WHO AWAITS THE RETURN OF HIS
FLOCK (C-NE6-00442)

REF: TEL AVIV 1049

Classified By: Ambassador Richard H. Jones for reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) Summary: Labor Chairman Amir Peretz told the
Ambassador and DCM March 17 that he believes that the large
number of still undecided voters will be pivotal on election
day. Peretz speculated that Labor's real public support may
be larger than current polls indicate as traditional
Laborites who left the party when he was elected return to
the party. Turning to the Hamas victory, Peretz acknowledged
that Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmud Abbas is
weak, but he criticized the GOI for contributing to his
weakness by publicly referring to him as such. Peretz
emphasized the need to act quickly to provide humanitarian
assistance directly to the Palestinian people and advocated
that the Hamas government be left on its own to deal with
government services and infrastructure needs. Within six
months to one year, Peretz gauged, the Palestinian people
will be ready to elect new leaders. In response to the
Ambassador's query, Peretz underlined his general opposition
to unilateral withdrawals from the West Bank, unless they are
used to motivate the Palestinians to take positive steps
toward a peace process. He called instead for "creative"
solutions to the current situation and spoke of the need to
distinguish between economic issues, which could be solved
relatively easily, and more difficult emotional issues like
Jerusalem. Peretz advocated dismantling all illegal outposts
within one year and decreasing the number of checkpoints in
and around large Palestinian cities. End summary.

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Peretz Pins Hopes on Return of the Faithful
--------------


2. (C) A visibly tired Peretz told the Ambassador and DCM
March 17 that it is more difficult to predict the outcome in
this election than in any prior election. Peretz said many
voters have been attracted to Kadima because it is new and
seems to offer something to everybody -- on the left and the
right. He compared Kadima to a mall where people could do
one-stop shopping, whereas the traditional parties, he added,
are the specialized "boutiques" that offer quality over
convenience. Peretz assessed that only on election day will
voters decide whether to stay at the mall or go back to their
traditional boutiques. Peretz stressed that events near
election day will probably be more important in this election
than in any previous election.


3. (C) Peretz estimated that some 25 percent of voters are
undecided, a number he assessed would continue climbing as
elections near, rather than decrease, as is usually the case
in Israel. Peretz assessed that Labor has a "good chance" of
pulling larger numbers than the polls now indicate. He
estimated that Labor lost about eight Knesset seats worth of
public support soon after he was elected party leader as some
of the more traditional Labor voters left the party for
Kadima. He said that Labor compensated for this loss,
however, by gaining eight Knesset seats worth of public
support from new sectors that had traditionally voted for
Likud. Peretz said that the question now is how much of the
public support that was lost will return to Labor on election
day. He claimed that many of those who left are already
returning. In response to the Ambassador's query, Peretz
agreed that Kadima member Shimon Peres's characterizing
Kadima and Labor positions as identical seemed aimed at
holding on to traditional Labor voters who had shifted to
Kadima.


4. (C) At one point in the conversation, Peretz commented
that the "feeling on the street" is that the USG is "working
for Kadima." The Ambassador stressed that the USG does not
involve itself in the internal politics of other countries.
He pointed out that he had purposely turned down press
interviews and speaking requests to avoid being drawn into
partisan politics. He acknowledged, however, that it is
common during an elections for it to appear that the USG
supports the incumbent party since it continues to work with
the government in power on ongoing matters of state.

-------------- -
Peretz Urges Quick Action to Help Palestinians
-------------- -


5. (C) Peretz turned the conversation to Hamas, and
criticized the USG and GOI for publicly referring to PA
President Mahmud Abbas as weak, since, he contended, these
statements only serve to further weaken Abbas. Peretz
acknowledged that Abbas is weak, but referred to him as "our
only alternative." Peretz said that both the old Fatah
guard, such as Mohammed Dahlan, as well as the new Hamas
leaders, need Abbas -- the former to save Fatah, and the
latter to put a "better face" on the new PA government.
Peretz characterized the USG position as having changed since
the Hamas victory, with the U.S. first saying that no aid
should go to the PA and then advocating some aid to the PA.
The Ambassador clarified that the USG had always advocated
that humanitarian assistance reach the Palestinian people,
but that aid not go through the PA once Hamas assumed control
of the government. He noted that the USG had traditionally
not provided much assistance to the PA in any case, since
most of U.S. aid went through NGOs. He added that the USG
had asked the PA to return unspent direct USG project
assistance.


6. (C) Switching to Hebrew, Peretz underlined that the
Palestinians and Israel are now dependent on each other and
that a wall between them could not change this any more than
a wall between two sides of a house could protect one side
from a fire in the other side. Peretz repeatedly urged that
the USG and GOI act quickly to provide the Palestinians
humanitarian assistance and advised increasing greatly the
number of NGOs through which the USG is providing assistance.
He cited the danger of a growing "axis" of fundamentalism in
the region that could include the PA, Lebanon, and Iran. He
said that the Hamas government should be left to provide
government services and infrastructure while NGOs and Fatah
provide humanitarian assistance. Hamas and Fatah, Peretz
said, would then be switching roles. Peretz assessed that in
this scenario, within six months to one year, the Palestinian
people will seek elections. He noted that Abbas could call
elections at any time, but also expressed concern that Abbas
could consider resigning one or two weeks after Hamas forms a
government. He agreed with the Ambassador's assessment,
however, that Abbas currently appears more positive and
engaged. (Note: Peretz met with Abbas on Allenby Bridge on
March 2. End note.)

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Peretz Rejects Diplomatic Impasses
--------------


7. (C) Turning to the possibility of future unilateral
withdrawals, Peretz said he is not against such moves in
principle, as it had worked in Gaza, where the withdrawals
were to internationally recognized borders. Unfortunately,
withdrawing in the West Bank to non-recognized borders, he
said, will not gain strong international approval is likely
to be wholly rejected by the Palestinians, even though some
withdrawal from occupied territory has been achieved.
However, he was careful to add that in some cases the threat
of unilateral moves could be used as an ultimatum to motivate
the Palestinians to take positive steps. Peretz urged that
"creative solutions" be used before resorting to unilateral
moves. In response to the Ambassador's query about what are
possible creative solutions, Peretz indicated that he is
considering several ideas, including the so-called "Hong
Kong" model that would provide for the long-term leasing by
the GOI of settlement blocs from the Palestinians, adopting
the model of Great Britain and China with regard to Hong
Kong. Peretz also mentioned the "land swap" idea, but did
not indicate if he was specifically referring to Yisrael
Beiteinu ("Israel, Our House") leader Avigdor Lieberman's
proposal that Israel redraw its border with the West Bank to
place some Israeli-Arab population centers that are close to
the Green Line within Palestinian territory, and to include
some Israeli settlement blocs within Israel (reftel).


8. (C) Peretz asserted that resolving economic issues, such
as competing Israeli and Palestinian land claims, is not as
difficult as addressing emotional issues, such as the status
of Jerusalem and the right of return of the Palestinian
refugees. "A good Middle Eastern salesman can solve the
issue of the settlement blocs," Peretz said. He underlined
his experience as a negotiator -- referring to his tenure as
head of the Histadrut Labor Federation -- and stressed that
in order for negotiations to succeed the parties must
understand each other and both parties must have something to
lose if they abandon the agreement.


9. (C) Peretz emphasized that he would remove all of the
illegal outposts within one year in order to uphold Israel's
rule of law, and would therefore not need pressure from the
USG to do so. He said he would also decrease the number of
checkpoints in and around major Palestinian cities. Both of
these moves would serve as confidence building measures with
the Palestinians, he said. He indicated that as part of a
coalition, he would push the government to take these steps.
Peretz ended the discussion by stressing the importance of
getting rid of Hamas, having trouble finding the English word
he needed to describe what should be done with Hamas, he
reached for a chocolate chip cookie on the table and crumbled
it.


10. (SBU) Bio note: Peretz managed fairly well in English at
the beginning. As the conversation moved to more sensitive
topics, he switched to Hebrew to express himself "more
precisely." These remarks were ably translated to English by
his international affairs advisor, Oriella Ben-Zvi.
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