ISRAELI NSA EILAND ON AID TO PALESTINIANS,

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 001064

SIPDIS

NOFORN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/15/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER EAID KWBG KPAL LE IS ISRAELI PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS GOI EXTERNAL GOI INTERNAL
SUBJECT: ISRAELI NSA EILAND ON AID TO PALESTINIANS,
LEBANON, AND OLMERT'S PLANS

REF: TEL AVIV 1048

Classified By: Ambassador Richard H. Jones; Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).


1. (C) Summary: Israeli National Security Adviser Giora
Eiland and his chief of staff, Roy Dick, told the Ambassador
and DCM on March 14 that the GOI has not yet established a
clear interagency position on assistance to the Palestinians.
Eiland said that the NSC's plan on possible steps to reduce
tension on the Israeli-Lebanese border is essentially on hold
until after the March 28 Knesset elections and predicted that
Hizballah will launch an attack on Israel's northern border
in the near future. Addressing A/PM Ehud Olmert's recent
comments on settlements, unilateral moves, and the separation
barrier (septel),Eiland predicted that the GOI could launch
a big initiative in these areas within six weeks of the
election. He also acknowledged that Olmert intends to
restructure the Prime Minister's Office into two branches,
one led by a national security adviser and one led by an
economic and social adviser. Reftel covers Eiland's initial
assessment of the impact of the March 14 Jericho raid. End
summary.

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GOI Still Working on Palestinian Assistance Guidelines
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2. (C) The Ambassador reiterated an earlier request for GOI
thoughts on assistance to the Palestinians for the period
after Hamas forms a government. Eiland admitted that "there
is a lot of confusion on our side." The most recent
inter-agency meeting a week earlier had resulted, he said, in
"more questions than answers." He noted that FM Tzipi Livni
has not been entirely successful in her attempts to get the
diverse GOI players to agree on a clear and comprehensive
position. Note: In a follow-up call on March 15, Eiland's
deputy told poloff that PM advisers Dov Weissglas and Shalom
Tourgeman intended to discuss the issue further with NEA
Assistant Secretary Welch in Brussels. End note).

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No Movement on Lebanon Until After Elections
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3. (S/NOFORN) Eiland said that IDF Chief of Staff LTG Dan
Haloutz and FM Livni support the NSC's plan (which Eiland had
described to A/S Welch in a previous meeting) on possible
steps to reduce tension on the Israeli-Lebanese border. He
described DefMin Shaul Mofaz's reaction as "he had some
doubts, but didn't reject it." Eiland said he is now
awaiting another appointment with A/PM Olmert, but does not
foresee it happening until after the March 28 elections. He
noted he had followed US advice not to share details of the
plan with UN representative Terje Larsen at this time.


4. (C) Eiland predicted that Hizballah will soon launch
another attack along the northern border. In his view,
Hizballah must launch operations -- even ones with no real
chance of success -- at regular intervals to maintain its
political legitimacy in Lebanon as "the resistance." At the
same time, he said, Hizballah is cautious not to precipitate
a forceful response from Israel that would materially weaken
its forces (or create real political problems for it in
Lebanon). Eiland expressed concern that Hizballah would use
the IDF's March 14 raid on the prison in Jericho as a pretext
for launching an attack from Lebanon.

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Olmert's Political Plans
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5. (C) Eiland said he was surprised about the openness of
Olmert's recent comments on settlements, unilateral moves,
and the separation barrier (septel). Cautioning that the NSC
is not permitted to work on campaign proposals of political
parties and has not been directly involved in Olmert's recent
proposals, he nevertheless said these topics would "probably
be the main story" in Israel after the election. If Olmert
is able to form a new government quickly, Eiland predicted,
the GOI could issue a proposal "ten times bigger than the
Gaza withdrawal" within 30-40 days. When asked by the
Ambassador how such considerations would be affected by
coalition negotiations, Eiland replied that Labor and other
smaller parties would support the plan. He did not believe,
however, that Avigdor Lieberman's "Israel Our Home" party
would back unilateral moves.

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Move to U.S.-Style NSC?
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6. (C) The Ambassador queried Eiland on press reports
claiming that Olmert intends to upgrade the NSC into a
U.S.-style organization. Eiland admitted that Olmert plans
to restructure the Prime Minister's Office into two branches,
one led by a national security adviser and one led by an
economic and social adviser. The PM would also have a
personal chief of staff. Eiland claimed that such a reform
is possible, because it would mainly involve reshuffling
staff who already report to the PMO. He added that he did
not yet know whether he would remain in the role of NSA
following the March 28 elections.

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