C-NE6-00442 KADIMA'S CAMPAIGN FOR CONTROL OF THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 TEL AVIV 001061

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/16/2011
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR IS KDEM GOI INTERNAL ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: C-NE6-00442 KADIMA'S CAMPAIGN FOR CONTROL OF THE
KNESSET

REF: A. TEL AVIV 990

B. TEL AVIV 1057

C. TEL AVIV 987

Classified By: Political Counselor Norman H. Olsen. Reason 1.4 (B/D).


1. (C) Summary: Less than two weeks before Israel's
elections, the Kadima Party is on course to win a plurality
of seats in the next Knesset despite minor up and down swings
in the weekly polls. Kadima's broadly accepted political
goal of unilaterally defining Israel's borders will allow the
party to maintain its cohesiveness in the face of challenges
from the right and left. Early March mudslinging at Olmert,
Hanegbi and other veteran politicians by Kadima's main
challengers, primarily Labor and Likud, has created a climate
for once-ignored scandals to bloom -- and cancel each other
out. Pundits reveled in the evidence of influence peddling
found in Omri Sharon's appointment books, which came to light
in early March, but subsequent sentencing of Likud MK Naomi
Blumenthal has shifted the anti-corruption spotlight away
from Kadima and onto Likud Chief Bibi Netanyahu's back. The
challenge for Kadima and other Israeli parties over the next
twelve days will be to keep the electorate, particularly at
the center of the political spectrum, interested enough in
the elections to actually vote on March 28. Although it is
premature for Kadima insiders to fully assess the party's
post-election options, Kadima's campaign manager, seconded by
other Kadima strategists, said the party will look first to
the right -- Likud, Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman),and the
ultra-orthodox parties (UTJ, Shas) -- to form a coalition
after the elections. End Summary.

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The Kadima Platform: A Jewish, Democratic State
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2. (C) Minister Ze'ev Boim, a childhood friend of A/PM
Olmert, described the vision behind the formation a new
political party, Kadima, in a February meeting with the
Ambassador: "In the wake of the Hamas victory and changes
throughout the world, the vast majority of Israelis
understand that we have to change our attitude toward the
conflict and find a way to solve it. We must decide on a
final border of Israel so that Israel will be able to
maintain itself as a Jewish and democratic state. This is
the idea of Kadima." Minister Ronnie Bar-On, whose failed
November bid for a ministerial appointment -- along with that
of Boim -- marked the proximate cause of Kadima's creation,
explained to the Ambassador on March 9 his perspective on the
difference between Kadima and the parties from which it drew
most of its members: "Likud lives in the fantasy of power,
threatening to reoccupy Gaza and northern Samaria, while
Labor hugs Abu Mazen." (ref A). Kadima's top "Russian"
candidate, who is number six on the party list, Marina
Solodkin, explained her own motivation for leaving Likud for
Kadima at a public panel discussion with other candidates:
"Israel is ripe for a centrist party. I'm an immigrant and
Bibi and the right wing are outmoded, elitist, conservative
and anti-immigrant."

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A Major Party at the Center of Israeli Politics
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3. (C) Boim said he believes that Kadima's strength lies in
what he claimed is its cohesiveness, which was tested
following the incapacitation of PM Ariel Sharon. Boim added
that Ehud (Olmert) is the natural successor to Ariel Sharon;
what Boim termed a natural "second best." Olmert supported
Sharon on political and security issues, notably on Israel's
future moves and future with the Palestinians. Internecine
conflicts have destroyed other centrist parties -- most
recently Shinui, which has fractured into several factions,
and earlier the personality-based, centrist parties of the
past, such as Merkaz in 1999 or the short-lived Dash centrist
party in the 1970s. Kadima members, on the other hand,
overcame personal ambitions and avoided public, political
quarrels among their leaders, Boim said. Boim commended
Tzipi Livni -- Kadima's most appealing politician in the
polls -- for her willingness to allow Shimon Peres to fill
the coveted number two slot on the party list, even though
Sharon had only promised Peres a slot among the top seven.
Boim cited Livni's move as representative of a sense of
understanding among Kadima's leaders that the party's power
lies in its ability to stand together. Kadima's top ten
candidates have far more combined Knesset and government
experience than those of Labor or Likud, Bar-On claimed, even
if Shimon Peres' decades of service are excluded. Both Boim
and Bar-On say they are campaigning to help ensure that
Kadima wins a large plurality that will enable it to govern
effectively, without giving over the party's agenda to left-
or right-wing extremes. Kadima's younger members and more
experienced political operatives have created an organization
from scratch that includes 122 local chapters spread across
the country, according to Yohanan Plesner, a Kadima candidate
who is responsible for organizing rallies.
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DISINTERESTED PUBLIC COULD DIMINISH KADIMA PLURALITY
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4. (C) News-hungry Israeli pundits and pollsters have
written extensively on the ups and downs of Kadima's standing
in the polls over the past month, attributing gains or losses
variously either to Russian voter disenchantment and
corruption, or to specific events such as the evacuation of
Amona outpost, the election victory of Hamas, and now the
Jericho prisoner snatch operation on March 15. From a high
of 43 seats on February 10 (Yedioth Ahronoth),Kadima had
slipped to 37 seats over the past month. Kadima's campaign
manager, Avigdor Yitzhaki, postulated March 6 in a private
conservation with poloff that supporters who leave Kadima do
not move back to Labor or Likud -- they join the ranks of
undecided voters. Kadima party organizer, Yohanan Plesner,
who is number 32 on the Kadima slate, told emboffs March 15
that the disaffected have drifted into a large pool of
undecided voters -- a group that could affect the fate of as
many as 24 seats in the next Knesset, according to some
polls. Alternatively, Plesner continued, these disaffected
voters may not vote at all, a move that would mark a
departure from the normally high level of political
participation in Israeli elections, which has historically
been in the high 70's, although in 2003 it dropped to 68
percent participation. A poll conducted by the Maagar Mohot
Institute found that only 44 percent of the 18-32 age cohort
plan to vote, according to a Yedioth Ahronoth report on March

8. Plesner, seconded by Labor and Likud party activists who
joined him on an elections panel held at the Embassy, said he
believes a high level of public disinterest would hurt
Israel's three largest parties -- Kadima, Labor and Likud --
proportionally more than it would hurt the smaller parties on
the left or right. He attributed voter disinterest to
disaffection with perceived corruption in Israeli politics.

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The Challengers: Labor and Likud Blast Away at Kadima
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5. (C) Kadima's own "internal" poll of March 7 gave the
party 39 seats, a result that led the party's pollster,
Kalman Gayer, to herald that Kadima had succeeded in blocking
its modest decline in February and early March weekly polls.
Olmert's decision to lay siege to the Jericho prison compound
on March 15 -- the only action conceivable under the
circumstances for any prime minister, acting or permanent --
and the IDF's success in apprehending the alleged assassins
of Israeli Minister Ze'evi is likely to give some bounce to
Kadima's leading position in the polls (ref B). Likud and
Labor leaders politely applauded Olmert's action, but
continue to fire broadsides at Kadima rather than at each
other. In a February debate with the Kadima candidate Marina
Solodkin, far-right Likud MK Uzi Landau blasted the Kadima
leadership as responsible for the Hamas election victory and
called the concept of disengagement a "policy of
capitulation" -- a refrain that Bibi Netanyahu and other
fear-mongering critics further to the right echo in their
March campaign ads (ref C) that put Olmert, and even Sharon,
squarely in the crosshairs of their attack. Likud MK Michael
Eitan reportedly compared both Ariel and Omri Sharon to the
former dictators of Iraq and Romania. Kadima Minister Ronnie
Bar-On, a veteran politician who has borne the brunt of many
an attack, particularly while serving as a short-lived
attorney general for Netanyahu in 1997, complained to the
Ambassador on March 9 that "Labor and Likud have no agenda,
no candidates, no team, but just take aim at Kadima
personalities since they know they don't have a chance of
winning the elections." Hebrew University Professor Menachem
Ben Sasson, a newcomer to politics who is number 20 in the
Kadima list, told poloff that there is PR upside to the Labor
and Likud attacks on Kadima: each day the morning news rings
with the word Kadima.

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CORRUPTION ALLEGATIONS SHIFT AWAY FROM KADIMA
--------------


6. (C) The publication of Omri Sharon's appointment books by
Israel's Channel Ten on March 5 marked a short-lived public
outcry over influence peddling by former Likudniks close to
Sharon who share ties with Olmert and Kadima. Omri, who is
appealing the prison sentence for his conviction for campaign
funding violations, apparently kept detailed notes of how he
arranged political appointments for Likud central committee
members in return for political support. Typical of the
public response generated by these revelations is that of
Ma'ariv political analyst, Dan Margalit, who wrote on March 6
that "Kadima was not founded because of corruption, but
because Ariel Sharon had the daring to decide on
disengagement. It is a party with a peace plan; it has
original positions on matters of education and economics...
But it says nothing in the realm of public morals, which is
eroding Israeli society, its economy and the stability of the
rule of law." Alternate PM Olmert has refused to disavow or
dismiss those allies, such as Minister Tzachi Hanegbi, who
have been accused of peddling political influence while
serving in Sharon's Likud-led government. The High Court of
Justice has rejected a petition from the Movement for Quality
Government, which argued that Hanegbi should step down from
Olmert's interim government, but has pronounced that
Hanegbi's service will, in fact, end with the elections.

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PARTY ORGANIZATION AND CAMPAIGN FINANCE
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7. (C) The immediate effect of these allegations has been to
force at least some Kadima campaigners to be on the
defensive. Former Ministry of Education Director General and
Kadima candidate number 25 Ronit Tirosh told poloff on
February 28 that the press would rather ask her for her views
on Hanegbi's future with the party than on her plans to
address the crisis in Israel's educational system. Kadima
candidate Plesner told poloff March 15 that a small group of
organizers, including campaign manager Avigdor Yitzhaki
Minister Meir Sheetrit and Kadima legal advisors, gathered on
March 12 to prepare the public rollout of Kadima's formal
political structure, which, Plesner says, will demonstrate
that Kadima will remain transparent, organized and
disciplined. For example, Plesner indicated that Kadima
plans to hold primaries among its general membership rather
than establish a smaller central committee to select
candidates. Both Yitzhaki and Plesner told poloff that
Kadima has relied exclusively on state funding for its first
Knesset campaign, a fact that they say will help insulate
them from future charges of political corruption. The March
14 conviction and sentencing of Likud candidate number 18
Naomi Blumenthal on campaign bribery charges undoubtedly
takes some of the heat off Kadima.

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More Academics, More Women, Some Russians, Few Arabs
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8. (C) Yitzhaki recalled how Sharon had instructed Kadima
party cadres to limit the number of incumbent MKs on the
party list to the 15 original founders of the faction and the
three Labor MKs (Peres, Ramon, Itzik) who joined later.
Sharon's decision paved the way for Kadima to open its doors
to professionals outside politics. Professor Ben Sasson
explained his decision to work with Olmert's party: "In the
next four-five years, we must delineate our borders -- where
95 percent of Jews will live and where 95 percent of
Palestinians will live." He applauded Kadima's embrace of
academicians, including colleagues drawn from all of Israel's
major universities -- former rector of Haifa University
Shlomo Breznitz; founder of the Herzliya Interdisciplinary
Center and former Dean of Tel Aviv University's Law School
Uriel Reichman; and Professor Yitzhak Ben-Israel of Tel Aviv
University.


9. (C) Ronit Tirosh, a secondary school administrator and
teacher of Arabic who served as director general of the
Education Ministry under two Sharon governments, told emboffs
that she accepted Sharon's invitation to join Kadima after he
explained to her that he wanted to deploy her management
skills in a Kadima-led government. Tirosh organized a
meeting of Kadima's political debutantes that convinced her
of the party's depth, which she attributed to the presence of
diversity (an Ethiopian, Shlomo Mola, who immigrated to
Israel alone in 1984) and dynamism (four leaders of youth
movements, including Secretary-General Lior Carmel of the
Scouts, which is Israel's largest youth movement, and the
former head of the Likud party youth movement, Yoel Hasson).
Former Likud Party Member Marina Solodkin lambasted the low
number of female candidates put forward by the Likud Party,
and proudly pointed to the ten women on the Kadima list.
Yitzhaki predicted that Kadima's six "Russian" candidates
would enable Kadima to capture more than 30 percent of the
Russian vote (with what he estimated as 40 percent going to
Yisrael Beitenu). Yitzhaki said Kadima's focus groups
discovered that including Israeli Arab candidates would
result in net losses for the party. Consequently, Kadima has
relegated its lone Israeli Arab to number 51, a slot not even
included on the Kadima website. Plesner nonetheless claimed
to emboffs that Kadima's diversity remains its strength,
pointing out that its slate includes a Druze candidate
(Majalli Whbee, number 18) and religious Zionists (e.g.,
former YESHA Council Secretary-General, Othniel Schneller,
number 26).

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Possible Coalitions: Likud or Lieberman first, then Labor
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10. (C) Yitzhaki told poloff that he anticipates Olmert will
ask him to take the lead in forming a governing coalition
after the elections. Yitzhaki explained that after working
with PM Sharon for years he follows a basic methodology:
keep one opponent inside and the other outside the coalition.
Yitzhaki's preference would be to bring Likud in and keep
Labor out. Yitzhaki predicted that if Likud joins the
coalition Netanyahu will step down from the Likud leadership.
Yitzhaki predicted that if Likud does not join, Yitzhaki
would ask Lieberman's Yisrael Beitenu and the ultra-orthodox
United Torah Judaism (UTJ) party to join with Kadima,
explaining his rationale: "UTJ would be less expensive than
Shas." Plesner, too, told poloff in private that Kadima will
try first to coopt the opposition to its right by enticing
the Likud or Yisrael Beitenu as well as the ultra-orthodox
Shas and UTJ to join its coalition. Plesner acknowledged
that it is too early to tell whether Netanyahu will bow out,
but he noted that Silvan Shalom is patiently waiting in the
wings should Likud fail to secure strong representation in
the next Knesset. On Lieberman's compatibility with Kadima,
Plesner noted that Yisrael Beitenu also urges a unilateral
definition and adjustment of borders rather than the
population transfer of Palestinians that other parties on the
right seek. Plesner also intimated that Kadima might succeed
in bringing Labor on board with its coalition after bringing
in the right, at which point Labor's leverage to make demands
would be reduced. Asked how he envisages Kadima's economic
policy shifting in the context of eventual
coalition-building, Kadima political strategist Lior Chorev,
replied: "It won't be the economic policy of Amir Peretz and
that's all I am going to say."

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