OLMERT'S SUCCESSFUL JERICHO MISSION COMES AT A

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 001057

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/15/2016
TAGS: PGOV PTER KWBG KPAL IS GOI INTERNAL ELECTIONS ISRAELI PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS
SUBJECT: OLMERT'S SUCCESSFUL JERICHO MISSION COMES AT A
PROPITIOUS TIME FOR KADIMA

Classified By: Political Counselor Norman Olsen for reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (SBU) Summary: Alternate Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's
successful March 14 Jericho prison operation will likely
stabilize Kadima's standing in the polls and may yield
additional seats in the March 28 Knesset elections. One
pollster gauged that, since, as she assesses, Kadima's
support had already stabilized last week, the operation may
even help Kadima gain seats. A Channel one television poll
conducted the day before the raid, already showed a rise in
support for Kadima from 37 seats in surveys conducted last
week to 42 seats in a poll conducted March 14. One pollster
attributed this rise to the return of a number of undecided
voters to Kadima. The major newspapers all carried
front-page photos of the prisoners' apprehension with
headlines praising the operation. Labor and Likud
spokespersons publicly commended the operation, but Likud
sources said the party is nervous that Likud may lose
potential supporters to Kadima as a result of the Jericho
operation. End summary.

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Operation Given Hero's Welcome by Israeli Press
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2. (SBU) Israeli media praised A/PM Olmert's and Defense
Minister Shaul Mofaz's successful apprehension of six
Palestinian terrorists allegedly responsible, respectively,
for the October 2001 assassination of former right-wing
Israeli Tourism Minister Rehavam Ze'evi ("Ghandi"),and for
arms smuggling. Photos and interviews with Ze'evi's family
filled the press, wherein Ze'evi's son expressed appreciation
that Olmert made good on Prime Minister Sharon's reported
promise that he would apprehend his father's assassins.
Leading media commentators noted that Olmert had reacted
appropriately to the circumstances resulting from the U.S./UK
pullout, and assessed that Olmert had not carried out the
operation simply to buttress Kadima in the polls. They
concluded, however, that Olmert's action will nonetheless
help Kadima's standing in the polls. Referring to Kadima
Knesset candidate Shimon Peres's meeting in Amman with PA
President Mahmud Abbas and to the Jericho operation,
columnist Ben Caspit wrote in Ma'ariv March 15, that, "The
Kadima locomotive, between Amman and Jericho, is racing
ahead, picking up voters on the way.... Perfect timing and a
little bit of luck is all one needs in life, and Olmert
yesterday had his share of both... " Caspit tempered his
positive prognosis with the warning that terrorist operations
could disrupt the benefits Kadima may win from the Jericho
snatch. Nahum Barnea, writing for Yedioth Ahronoth, echoed
Caspit's analysis, assessing that, "The results are good for
Kadima. The voters like operations of this kind, in which
the enemy is humiliated and our troops return safely to their
bases." Barnea also warned, however, that retaliatory
terrorist attacks for the raid could "fly back in Kadima's
face like a boomerang."

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Kadima Support Already Stabilized
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3. (C) One of Israel's leading pollsters, Mina Zemach of the
Dahaf Institute, assessed to Poloff March 14 that Kadima's
support had already stabilized last week. She said that
Dahaf is conducting a poll the evening of March 15, with
results to be released March 16 in Yedioth Ahronoth, and that
she anticipates that it will show Kadima's support has now
increased. A Channel one television poll taken one day
before the operation, coincidentally, showed Kadima rising in
the polls, with the party receiving 42 seats if elections
were held today. That number reflects an increase of five
seats from last week's polls and a return to the numbers that
Kadima was polling right after its founding, when Ariel
Sharon was still in charge. According to Ha'aretz, pollster
Avi Dagani attributed this increase to the return of a number
of currently undecided voters to Kadima. Apart from Olmert's
intemperate claim a week ago that Kadima had already won the
election, Kadima party members have been cautious in
forecasting any electoral benefits that may accrue to the
party as a result of the operation. Senior Kadima strategist
Eyal Arad assessed to the media only that the operation "will
strengthen the allegiance of anyone who has already decided
to vote Kadima, but no more than that."

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Parties Scrambling to Respond, Regroup
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4. (SBU) Most political parties have praised the Jericho
operations, but some have criticized the operation as part of
Kadima's electioneering. According to media reports, Likud,
which prides itself on its own willingness to use force and
criticizes other parties as too weak, appears the most
rattled by prospective political ramifications of the
operation. Yedioth Ahronoth's Internet site reported
unidentified Likud sources as saying that "this operation has
brought upon our defeat" and that Likud party Chairman
Binyamin Netanyahu had called an impromptu meeting of his
security advisors for consultations. The Yedioth site
reports that Likud members view the coming weekend as
critical for Likud to improve the party's situation in the
polls. Likud MK and Chairman of the Knesset Foreign Affairs
and Defense Committee Yuval Steinitz commended the operation
to the media, but at the same time criticized the GOI's
handling of the PA after the Hamas victory in general. Likud
MK Gideon Sa'ar, played down reported Likud anxieties,
claiming that the meeting Netanyahu had called was planned
weeks ago. He said that Likud would focus its efforts on
explaining the "dangers" of Olmert's recently announced plan
for additional unilateral withdrawals.


5. (C) Oriella Ben-Zvi, an advisor to Labor Chairman Amir
Peretz, told Poloff March 15 that former Shin Bet head Ami
Ayalon had publicly praised the Jericho operation March 14.
When asked, she insinuated that the elections had an
influence in the timing of the operation and assessed that
the operation would have an impact on the polls -- although
she did not elaborate how this would pan out. Dr. Ze'ev
Khanin, professor of Political Science at Bar Ilan University
and an expert on the Russian-speaking immigrant sector,
assessed to Poloff March 15 that the Jericho operation will
likely not increase support for Kadima among the
Russian-speaking electorate, but he added that it will likely
stem any further loss of Russian speakers' support from that
party. Left-leaning Meretz MK Zahava Gal-On, while
expressing satisfaction with the results of the raid, told
the media that the IDF operation "has the slight scent of
elections," while Meretz party head Yossi Beilin criticized
the GOI for not resolving the Jericho crisis with President
Abbas.

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