Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06TBILISI2754
2006-10-17 13:42:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tbilisi
Cable title:  

SOUTH OSSETIA TALKS AT AN IMPASSE

Tags:  PREL OSCE PGOV GG 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO1665
OO RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHSI #2754/01 2901342
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 171342Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY TBILISI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4369
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 002754 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR DAS BRYZA AND EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/17/2016
TAGS: PREL OSCE PGOV GG
SUBJECT: SOUTH OSSETIA TALKS AT AN IMPASSE


Classified By: Ambassador John F. Tefft for reasons 1.4(b) & (d).

Summary
-------
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 002754

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR DAS BRYZA AND EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/17/2016
TAGS: PREL OSCE PGOV GG
SUBJECT: SOUTH OSSETIA TALKS AT AN IMPASSE


Classified By: Ambassador John F. Tefft for reasons 1.4(b) & (d).

Summary
--------------

1. (C) As described by OSCE, the October 12-13 Joint Control
Commission (JCC) meeting in Vladikavkaz produced few real
results because the Georgians and the other sides deadlocked
over the Georgian proposal to change the format of the
discussions. The commander of the Joint Peacekeeping Forces
(JPKF) presented a report blaming both sides for an increase
in violations. The only bright spot in the meeting was all
participants' welcoming of the recently launched economic
rehabilitation project in the region. Russian
representatives told OSCE privately that they believe
hardliners have taken control over policy making in Georgia.
End Summary.

Airing the Differences
--------------

2. (C) OSCE Deputy Head of Mission Veselin Nikolaev told us
October 16 that getting the participants to the Vladikavkaz
meeting was a saga in itself, given the Russian closure of
the Upper Lars-Kazbegi border crossing and air routes, and
was resolved only at the last minute when all sides agreed to
a charter flight from Tbilisi to Vladikavkaz. Once there,
the discussions made little progress. The Georgians insisted
on changing to a bilateral format (Georgia-South Ossetia),
with OSCE chairing and Russia, the U.S., and EU as
participants, before discussing agenda items on a settlement
of the conflict or on law enforcement cooperation. The other
sides strongly resisted this change, with the Russian
co-chair commenting that he felt he was attending the
"funeral of the JCC." Nikolaev told us that, given the
starkly opposed positions of the sides, he thought invoking
the "political format" of the "authorized delegations of the
sides" might be a face-saving way out of the impasse. When
this was proposed, however, the Russians said they had no
instructions. The Russian co-chair told Nikolaev privately
that, while he personally had no objection to the proposal,
he thought Moscow was unlikely to accept it.


3. (C) Nikolaev said the JPKF commander, General Kulakhmetov,
delivered a report to the JCC on the increasing number of
violations of existing agreements, blaming the South
Ossetians primarily for construction of fortifications and
the Georgians primarily for unauthorized police checkpoints.
The Georgians dismissed Kulakhmetov's report as biased.
Nikolaev admitted to us that Kulakhmetov had seemed
particularly careful not to anger the South Ossetians in his
remarks, adding that he would have a better understanding of
Kulakhmetov's overall assessment when OSCE obtains the
written version of the report. Nikolaev said there was one
bright spot in the discussions: all participants welcomed the
recent launch of the donors' economic rehabilitation program
in South Ossetia.

Russian Conspiracy Theories
--------------

4. (C) Nikolaev said the Russian representatives had told him
privately in Vladikavkaz that they believed Georgian co-chair
Merab Antadze's uncompromising stance at the meeting
indicated he was under the control of Defense Minister
Okruashvili -- and that they believed Okruashvili had gained
the upper hand over President Saakashvili. Nikolaev told us
he personally found this "far-fetched," especially the
Russians' speculation that an incident might be arranged
(apparently by Okruashvili) to remove Saakashvili "as
happened with the late Prime Minister Zhvania." (Note:
Zhvania died in 2005 from accidental carbon monoxide
poisoning. End Note.) Nikolaev said the Russians frequently
make such comments about Okruashvili, on whom they appear to
be "fixated." Nikolaev said he spoke in Vladikavkaz with
some of the evacuated officials from the Russian Embassy in
Tbilisi, and they predicted the Embassy would go back to full
staffing as soon as some event provided a public
justification for it.

Comment
--------------

5. (C) There was no discussion in Vladikavkaz of when the JCC
might meet again, although Nikolaev thought that the planned
visit next week of Belgian MFA representative Pierre
Chevalier to Moscow, Tbilisi, and South Ossetia might push
things forward. For now the talks are in stalemate, with
OSCE working to preserve the JCC as a forum for dialogue, if
nothing else. None of the other participants seem equally
motivated to keep discussion going, although none want to be
seen as responsible for scuttling it either. At this point
the economic program -- complete with its steering committee
incorporating the sides and international donors -- is the
only forum that seems to have broad, enthusiastic support.

TBILISI 00002754 002 OF 002



TEFFT