PARANOIA IN FLIGHT: KARIMOV ACCOMPLISHES LITTLE IN

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 TASHKENT 000992

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/21/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL UZ ZK
SUBJECT: PARANOIA IN FLIGHT: KARIMOV ACCOMPLISHES LITTLE IN
PAKISTAN


Classified By: CLASSIFIED BY AMB. JON R. PURNELL FOR REASONS 1.4 (B, D)
.


1. (S) Summary: Prior to President Karimov's visit to
Islamabad, Pakistani DCM Malik said the two largest issues
facing Uzbekistan and Pakistan were transportation and
customs problems. Pakistani Ambassador Kamran reported that
Karimov's visit produced few tangible results, but stressed
that the Uzbeks seemed more open than during last year's
summit in Tashkent. Post has heard rumors of flights between
Uzbekistan and Pakistan recommencing in July. Both officials
agree that bilateral relations have improved since 2005.
Kamran attributed the improvement in part to increased
intel-sharing. Karimov refused to fly through Afghan
airspace during his trip out of fear for his security. End
summary.


2. (C) On May 2, President Islam Karimov visited Islamabad to
discuss the future of Uzbek-Pakistani relations. This visit
reciprocated President Musharraf's March 2005 trip to
Tashkent. Pakistani Ambassador Sajjad Kamran told the
Ambassador this was mostly a working visit with little pomp
and circumstance. There was one face-to-face, private
meeting between the two presidents. All other meetings were
open to the delegation, including senior officials such as
Uzbek Foreign Minister Ganiev, the Chief of the Air Force,
and senior National Bank of Uzbekistan and customs officials.
Kamran said that the Uzbeks took the opportunity to
congratulate Pakistan on its "ability to have good relations
with both the U.S. and China." Karimov reiterated to
Musharraf Uzbekistan's support for the Global War on Terror,
adding that Uzbekistan continues this effort not to please
the U.S., but because it is important in its own right. Ten
Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) were signed on topics
ranging from fighting terrorism, to plant quarantines, to
bank cooperation. Kamran told the Ambassador that he does
not expect any concrete results from these new agreements any
time soon.


3. (S) Separately, Pakistani DCM Shahbaz Malik told the DCM
that the two sides signed a protocol on counterterrorism.
This is a follow-up to an earlier agreement on intel-sharing
that included the possible repatriation of Uzbeks picked up
in Pakistan. Kamran said last year the Pakistanis
repatriated a number of Uzbeks terrorists detained in
Pakistani tribal areas. He believes this had a positive
effect on the bilateral relationship.


4. (C) In April, Malik told poloff that Uzbekistan and
Pakistan need to work on transportation issues, including
reestablishing direct flights and improving customs control.
The lack of direct flights, he noted, restricts trade. Uzbek
business owners import Pakistani goods mostly by air as extra
baggage because the land routes are poorly developed. Kamran
told the Ambassador that flights may resume this summer, but
the Uzbeks will have to make the first move. On May 18, a
local Pakistani businessman told Pol-Econ Chief that an Uzbek
Air delegation was currently visiting Karachi and Lahore to
finalize plans to begin a Tashkent-Lahore flight. According
to that source, flights are schedule to begin July 15 and
will originate in Birmingham, UK. Karimov refused to fly
through Afghan airspace to Islamabad, said Kamran, because of
security concerns. Additionally, Kamran said Pakistani
airlines are uninterested in flying to Tashkent as they
believe it would be unprofitable. According to Kamran, Uzbek
fears of overflying Afghanistan have been a real stumbling
block to establishing direct flights.


5. (C) Uzbekistan and Pakistan do not have a transit treaty.
According to Malik, this inhibits commerce via land routes as
the roads are poorly maintained (especially in Afghanistan)
and customs regulations are often arbitrary. The DCM
attributed this problem mostly to the lack of trilateral
cooperation among Uzbekistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan. He
mentioned a recent case of a Pakistani exporter who attempted
to cross the Afghan-Uzbek border with truckloads of
Pakistani-grown tangerines. The Uzbek authorities initially
refused to allow the tangerines to enter, citing lack of
paperwork verifying the fruit was pest-free. Apparently, the
fruit was allowed to cross after the Pakistani gave the Uzbek
authorities an unspecified gift.


6. (C) Malik said around 100 Pakistanis live in Uzbekistan,

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but few travel home to bring back goods to sell. Most run
their own small-medium size businesses, including stores and
textile factories. According to a press report from the
"Business Recorder", the GOU has offered a series of
incentives to attract Pakistani textile-related businesses.
These include subsidized electricity and cotton, and no
export taxes. (Note: No official announcement has been made
to this effect. End note.) Kamran said, during the visit,
Pakistan offered a credit line of five million USD to the
Uzbeks to purchase Pakistani-manufactured textile equipment.


7. (S) Malik and Kamran each noted that Uzbek-Pakistani
relations have improved over the past year. Kamran said that
when Musharraf visited last year, the Uzbeks did not seem to
trust the Pakistanis. This year, according to Kamran,
Karimov appeared more at ease with Musharraf. He attributed
this change to intervention on the part of former Uzbek
Ambassador to Pakistan and current Deputy FM Anvar
Salikhbaev. (Note: Salikhbaev also served as Deputy Chief of
the National Security Service. End note.) According to
Kamran, during his time in Pakistan, Salikhbaev made
overtures to the Pakistani secret service, greatly improving
the relationship.


8. (C) During the visit, Pakistani officials also reportedly
encouraged the Uzbeks to take a larger role in Afghan
reconstruction efforts. Kamran, who participated in many of
the meetings in Islamabad, believes the Uzbeks are genuinely
concerned about Afghanistan's stability, and are much less
optimistic than the Pakistanis. Nonetheless, despite public
announcements from the GOU that reconstruction of Afghanistan
is crucial, Kamran does not believe the Uzbeks are ready to
play an active role in Afghanistan


9. (C) Pakistani businessmen, and even tourists, still have
difficulty getting long-term, multiple entry visas. Malik
said his Embassy has asked for visa liberalization, but is
still waiting for the GOU to respond. During the visit,
Pakistan raised the issue, but does not think, according to
Kamran, that the Uzbeks will change the visa regime.


10. (C) Comment: Karimov's visit to Pakistan fits into his
overall strategy to show that, despite problems with the U.S.
and Europe, he has friends. This visit followed closely on
the heels of his trip to Seoul and a visit from the Indian
Prime Minister to Tashkent. Although numerous MoUs were
signed, it seems that little concrete was actually decided
during the visit. Re-establishing air links between
Uzbekistan and Pakistan would be a significant move and would
demonstrate whether the Uzbeks are indeed serious about
improving relations.
PURNELL