Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06TASHKENT1358
2006-07-13 14:21:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tashkent
Cable title:  

FM GANIEV OUT, NOROV IN

Tags:  PGOV PREL PINR UZ 
pdf how-to read a cable
O 131421Z JUL 06
FM AMEMBASSY TASHKENT
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6106
INFO CIS COLLECTIVE
AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD 
AMEMBASSY KABUL 
AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 
DIA WASHDC
SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
CIA WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L TASHKENT 001358 


DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/16/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR UZ
SUBJECT: FM GANIEV OUT, NOROV IN

REF: A. TASHKENT 654

B. TASHKENT 498

C. 05 TASHKENT 2382

D. 05 TASHKENT 2493

Classified By: DCM BRAD HANSON FOR REASONS 1.4 (B,D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L TASHKENT 001358


DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/16/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR UZ
SUBJECT: FM GANIEV OUT, NOROV IN

REF: A. TASHKENT 654

B. TASHKENT 498

C. 05 TASHKENT 2382

D. 05 TASHKENT 2493

Classified By: DCM BRAD HANSON FOR REASONS 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Confirming rumors post picked up through
the day, President Islom Karimov issued a decree July 12
naming former Ambassador to Belgium, NATO and the EU Vladimir
Norov as the new Minister of Foreign Affairs. Former Foreign
Minister Elyor Ganiev returned to his old post of Minister of
Foreign Economic Relations. Norov is well-known to Post, as
he served as First Deputy Foreign Minister to Sodiq Safaev
from 2003-2004. We are cautiously optimistic about Norov's
appointment, as it gives us a chance to re-open lines of
communication with the MFA. In addition, Norov does not
appear to maintain the type of close relationship that Ganiev
did with the National Security Service (NSS),which we
believe could work in our favor. While rumors continue to
circulate that Ganiev might soon find himself completely out
of the government, we are skeptical, as he provides Karimov
with a useful adversary to increasingly powerful First Deputy
Prime Minister Rustam Azimov. END SUMMARY.

GANIEV OUT, NOROV IN
--------------


2. (C) On July 12 at 5 p.m. President Islom Karimov issued a
presidential decree naming Vladimir Norov Minister of Foreign
Affairs. Elyor Ganiev, the former Minister, was reappointed
Minister of Foreign Economic Relations (MFER),a position he
held until he moved to the MFA in 2005, and which was vacated
earlier this year by Alisher Shayhov. Throughout July 12
several former government officials and Uzbek elite indicated
to Embassy officers that Ganiev was on his way out. One
member of the elite said that Ganiev was no longer a player,
and simply carried out the National Security Services (NSS)
orders. She went on to say that Ganiev seems to be a shell
of his former self and is clearly the pawn of senior
officials at the National Security Service (NSS). A former
chairman of the Customs Committee told emboff that Ganiev was
no longer in favor and would soon be replaced. This former
official, who maintains close contacts with the most
influential in the government, said that Vladimir Norov, a
student of his and a former First Deputy FM and current

Ambassador to Brussels, the EU and NATO, would soon replace
Ganiev as Minister.

MFA CONFIRMS THE CHANGE HAS ALREADY OCCURRED
--------------


3. (C) At 7 pm, MFA America's Desk officials confirmed the
change to PE Chief, and expressed amazement at how quickly we
learned this information. According to Kadambai Sultanov,
Third Secretary at the America's Department, Norov has
already returned from Brussels and taken over at the MFA.
Ganiev was sent packing the few short blocks back to MFER.

NOROV: A SEASONED DIPLOMAT
--------------


4. (C) Norov is well-known to Post, as he has served as
Ambassador or Deputy FM on and off since 1995. In addition
to his most recent assignment as Ambassador to Belgium, NATO
and the EU, Norov was also Ambassador to Germany from
1998-2003,and to Poland and Switzerland resident in Berlin
from 2002-2003. He served as former FM Sodiq Safaev's First
Deputy from 2003-2004. In addition to Russian and Uzbek,
Norov, a native of Bukhara, is conversant in Tajik, English
and German. He began his government career in the Ministry
of Internal Affairs (MVD) in 1978. At one point, Azimov,
Safaev and Norov composed a triumvirate of influential
presidential advisers. In general, the diplomatic community,
including several Europeans who have worked with Norov over
the past year are optimistic. One local Embassy employee,
however, was much less positive. The employee, who used to
work for Norov, was not complimentary of his former boss,
noting that he was often unstable and could be very
vindictive.

WILL GANIEV SOON BE UNEMPLOYED?
--------------


5. (C) Several former government officials and business
contacts tell us that they believe Ganiev will soon be
completely removed from the government. They said that in
true Uzbek fashion, Karimov has decided to remove Ganiev from
the government one step at a time. One business contact said
she did not expect Ganiev to be at MFER for more than a few
months at best. That said, Ganiev has spent the greater part
of Uzbek independence working at MFER with eight of those
years leading the Ministry. Ganiev also held the post of
Deputy Prime Minister from 2002 until late 2005.

COMMENT: VERY CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM
--------------


6. (C) Norov is a familiar face. We have dealt with him in
the past with varying degrees of success and believe the
change should, at least marginally, help our ability to
engage with the MFA. Norov is not anti-American. His son
Qodir was educated in the United States and is a member of
the American Chamber of Commerce in Uzbekistan. In fact, he
is in the U.S. as we write visiting American friends. In
addition, unlike Ganiev, Norov does not have historical ties
to the NSS and is less likely to take orders from NSS
Chairman Rustam Inoyatov or other senior intelligence
officials. We have heard repeated claims that Ganiev's
biggest weakness in the end was that he listened too closely
to the NSS, to the detriment of maintaining relations with
other influential officials. While we believe that Ganiev is
indeed weakened, we are cautious in believing those that
predict he will soon be expelled from the GOU altogether.
Ganiev is a familiar government face who provides an
adversary for increasingly powerful First Deputy Prime
Minister and Minister of Finance Rustam Azimov. Ganiev's
removal and Norov's appointment is just one more chapter in
Karimov's ongoing game to keep everyone off-balance and on
their toes. While we believe this new appointment will give
us an opportunity to re-engage with an old acquaintance,
possibly reopening a few lines of communication to the MFA,
we are cautious against reading too much into this change, as
Uzbek policy towards the U.S. is still made at the highest
levels.

PURNELL