ESTONIA: REFLECTIONS ON EU MEMBERSHIP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TALLINN 000983

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/02/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL EU EN
SUBJECT: ESTONIA: REFLECTIONS ON EU MEMBERSHIP

REF: A) TALLINN 00964 B)TALLINN 00968

Classified By: DCM Jeff Goldstein for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary. Estonia's attitude toward EU
membership has evolved away from EU skepticism and
towards a more pragmatic "good European" engagement.
Public support for Estonia's EU membership has
recently reached a record high. However, in foreign
policy Estonian officials recognize that their
tendency to disproportionately focus on Russia may be
undermining credibility among other EU member states.
Lack of personnel, expertise and diplomatic
representation outside of Europe hinders Estonia's
ability to expand its policy engagement beyond its own
neighborhood. End Summary.

From Britain to Finland:
--------------


2. (SBU) Despite initial jitters, Estonian support for
further and deeper EU integration has grown since
accession in 2004. According to Gert Antsu, the State
Chancellery's Director for EU Affairs, Estonia's early
approach to EU membership most resembled the British
Euro-Skeptic attitude: GOE officials and politicians
were reluctant to hand over more national sovereignty
to Brussels than absolutely necessary. However, Antsu
explained, over the last two years, Estonia's attitude
has slowly evolved into a more constructive
"integrationist approach to Europe" similar to that of
Finland. Estonia has supported a number of big ticket
EU initiatives including ratification of the
Constitution and advocating for a Common Foreign
Security Policy.


3. (C) GOE officials often describe Estonia's approach
within EU structures as "pragmatic." Antsu noted that
as a small country Estonia recognizes the extent to
which it can influence EU policy. For example, when
it became certain that Estonia would not meet the EU's
criteria to join the Eurozone, the GOE announced in
June 2006 that it would seek a one year delay. GOE
officials feel they earned points in Brussels by
expressing their disappointment in very moderate
tones. Kristiina Meius, the Ministry of Foreign
Affairs' (MFA) European Correspondent, who spent the
last three years as a political officer in Brussels,
asserted that Estonia's approach has begun to earn it
credibility as a "constructive and serious" partner.
In comparison, Antsu noted, Lithuania's more vocal
reaction to delayed admission to the Eurozone "did not
win them any friends." (Comment. It is clear that
GOE officials hope that their support for EU
integration initiatives and quieter dissent proves
their "good European" bona fides. End Comment.)

Growing EU Expertise:
--------------


4. (SBU) In the past, GOE ministers have tended to
view their staff responsible for EU issues as "off in
their corner doing EU stuff." However, Antsu noted,
this is changing. Estonia has begun to build up a
small coterie of officials who have experience
traveling to and working in Brussels. These officials
provide the GOE with an expanding base of practical EU
know-how within the various ministries, which is
essential for negotiations within EU fora.


5. (SBU) Estonia has also benefited from the close
working relationship that exists between the
Government and the Parliament's EU Affairs Committee.
Olev Aarma, the senior permanent staff member on the
Parliament's EU Affairs Committee, attends all
Government meetings in which bills are drafted. Aarma
said he knows of no other member state where this
takes place. As a result Aarma said, "only a handful"
of the government's EU-related proposals have been
overturned by the Parliament -- and most of these were
because of technicalities. This close cooperation has
prevented a backlog of EU legislation waiting to be
adopted and has placed Estonia ahead of many older
member states in incorporating EU legislation into
national law.

The EU Still Popular:
--------------


6. (U) Public support for Estonia's membership in the
EU has remained strong since accession. In the latest
government poll, almost 80 percent of the public had a

TALLINN 00000983 002 OF 003


favorable impression of EU membership. Estonia's
economy has continued to grow at a remarkable pace
since accession (GDP grew 9.8 percent in 2005). EU
Structural Funds for infrastructure projects and
Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) aid to farmers (once
the most hostile to EU membership) have both delivered
tangible and visible benefits the public can
understand. Also, the European Commission's public
support for inclusion of the new member states into
the U.S. Visa Waiver Program has gone over well with
the public.


7. (SBU) As a result of this strong popular support,
EU membership has not been the focus of much domestic
political debate. By and large, there is a general
pro-EU sentiment among the leadership of all the
parties. Aarma said to us, "It is strange when you
think of it, but we have parties that ought to be more
hostile to the EU due to their own party principles."
The Reform Party's strident economic liberalism has
not prevented it from being one of the strongest EU
proponents in Estonia. Neither have the nationalist
parties, like Pro Patria or Res Publica, tried to drum
up populist support in reaction to expanding EU
powers. Unlike other new member states (i.e.,
Slovakia, Czech Republic, and Poland) that have seen
anti-EU parties make gains, Aarma didn't think the EU
would even be an issue in the upcoming parliamentary
elections next year.

Moving beyond Moscow:
--------------


8. (C) Toomas Henrik Ilves, President of Estonia, has
made it his goal for Estonia to become a "generator of
ideas in Europe" (Ref A),but there is a significant
gap between aspiration and reality. Estonia still
lacks the necessary infrastructure and expertise to
produce and sustain critical analysis on broad EU
issues. Antsu complained that GOE reports suffer from
being so general that they "are not worth the effort."
Nowhere is this lack of fresh ideas more apparent than
in foreign and security policy, according to Marko
Mihkelson, MP and Foreign Affairs Committee Vice-
Chair. Estonia's security and foreign policy forays
have been limited to Russia and immediate regional
matters. Several interlocutors acknowledged the
danger that Estonia is or will be viewed as a single-
issue country in Brussels.


9. (C) Mihkelson opined that Estonia's focus on Russia
has stifled any interest or initiative to engage on
issues outside the region. When one compares
Estonia's vocal and vigorous defense of Georgia in
Lahti, Finland(Ref B) with its near silence on North
Korea, the Middle East, and Iran, it is clear that
Estonia prefers to defer to common EU positions on
matters not related to Russia. Speaking off the
record, Aadrma was concerned that this passivity for
matters "non-Russian" was not in Estonia's long term
interest. He said that Estonia is in danger of being
dismissed even on Russia as member states feel Estonia
(and other new members) "sound like a broken record."
One possibility is for Estonia to focus on a select
number of key European issues such as energy security,
migration and others. But work on the GOE's new EU
policy plan (the current expires in December 2006)
will not begin until after parliamentary elections in
March 2007.

Hampered by a Lack of Resources
--------------


10. (C) According to Mihkelson, another important
reason for Estonia's inability to engage on other
issues is due to the lack of experienced and qualified
people within and outside of Government, hardly a
surprise in a country of 1.35 million. "We don't
have anything to say about Iran or other parts of the
world," Mihkelson said, because too few GOE officials
have "experience beyond our borders." The MFA's Meius
highlighted the need for more funding from Parliament
to expand MFA staffing at home and abroad. Currently,
the MFA division responsible for covering Africa, the
Middle East, and Southeast Asia has only four people.
Coupled with the GOE's marginal diplomatic
representation outside of Europe, Meius asked us how
realistic it was for Estonia to be able to contribute
on policy outside its immediate region.


11. (C) Mihkelson and others believe that having more
independent think tanks in Estonia would help the

TALLINN 00000983 003 OF 003


country "develop expertise in foreign affairs."
Currently there are only two: the MFA-funded Estonian
Foreign Policy Institute (EFPI) and MOD's
International Center for Defense Studies (ICDS).
Andres Kasekamp, EFPI's Director, welcomes Mihkelson's
encouragement but notes that as a "one man operation"
there is only so much the EFPI can produce. ICDS is a
brand new organization and has yet to begin full
operations. Kadri Liik, ICDS Director, said that even
though they are making progress, Mihkelson's idea is
"a long way from becoming a reality." (Comment. Since
both think tanks are financially dependent upon the
GOE, their products are vulnerable to influence.
During the drafting of a study on energy security,
Mikhelson himself urged Kasekamp to ensure the study's
findings were "sufficiently" critical of Russia. End
Comment.)
WOS