ESTONIA: SCENESETTER FOR THE PRESIDENT'S VISIT TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L TALLINN 000972

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/25/2016
TAGS: PREL EN
SUBJECT: ESTONIA: SCENESETTER FOR THE PRESIDENT'S VISIT TO
TALLINN NOV 27-28.


Classified By: the Ambassador for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) Mr. President, I am extremely honored and pleased to
welcome your historic visit to Tallinn on November 27-28.
Estonia is a steadfast ally and partner; we share so many
common values. The timing of your visit is excellent -
President Ilves took office on October 9th and the
parliament is about to debate extension of Estonia's
military mandate in Iraq. Your visit will provide assurance
that the United States values Estonia. It will also
reinforce domestic political support for our agenda,
including the Global War on Terror, and invigorate a new
generation of Estonians' interest in the United States.

During your visit, I recommend that you

-- Convey the strong respect we have for Estonia as a
partner.

-- Laud Estonia's strong commitment to fighting the Global
War on Terror;

-- Thank President Ilves and Prime Minister Ansip for
Estonia's deployments in Iraq and Afghanistan in support of
U.S. and NATO objectives;

-- Express hope that Estonia will extend its Iraq mandate
for another year;

-- Praise Estonia's support for new democracies in the
region and encourage intensification of these efforts;

-- Pursuade Estonia to take a more active role in voicing
its support for strong transatlantic ties within EU and
international forums;

-- Encourage Estonians to support their nation playing an
active role in international affairs;

Your Estonian interlocutors will want to discuss concerns
over Russia's efforts to exert both political and economic
influence over neighboring countries. They will also
repeat their case for implementing visa-free travel to the
United States in the context of Estonia's contributions in
the GWOT. End Summary.


2. (C) Your visit will feature a meeting and working lunch
with President Toomas Hendrik Ilves and a meeting with
Prime Minister Andrus Ansip. President Ilves, who was
elected in late September, is very outspoken and sometimes
perceived as haughty. He grew up in the United States and
has placed a priority on invigorating Estonia's role in
European structures, improving transatlantic relations and
unifying EU policy towards Russia. On a personal note,
President Ilves is very fond of clearing brush at his farm
outside of Tallinn. Prime Minister Ansip is the dynamic
leader of Estonia's three-party coalition Government and a
very strong supporter of U.S. foreign policy objectives and
policies. Last fall, he was one of the first foreign heads
of government to visit Iraq. I recommend you concentrate
on the following themes in your discussions:

Recognizing Estonia as a Staunch Ally
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3. (C) I strongly recommend you express - both publicly and
privately - your deep appreciation for Estonia's active
participation in the Global War on Terror. Despite its
small size, Estonia has taken on a disproportionally large
role in peacekeeping operations. Estonia currently has 280
military personnel deployed worldwide and, in Iraq and
Afghanistan, has suffered a total of 24 injured and 2
killed in action. This is a high price for a country with
only 1.35 million people (and 3,800 regular armed forces.)
37 Estonian soldiers are fighting side-by-side with
American troops outside of Baghdad where they have
participated in some of the toughest counter-insurgency
missions. The Parliament will soon debate whether to
approve a one-year extension of the troops' mandate.
Public support for the Iraq mission is not strong and your
visit will be key in highlighting the importance of
Estonia's contributions to stability in Iraq.


4. (C) In Afghanistan, Estonian troops are embedded with a
UK-led Provincial Reconstruction Team in Helmand Province.
Helmand is an epicenter for opium production and has seen
an upsurge in Taliban activity. Estonia's mission in

Afghanistan has a two-year mandate and the number of troops
will rise from 80 to 120 by the end of this year. Support
for this mission among the political leadership is strong,
and the government has identified the Afghanistan mission
as a top priority.

Transformational Democracy
--------------


5. (C) In just fifteen years, Estonia has made a remarkable
transition from Soviet shackles to free-market democracy
and from aid recipient to aid donor. In 1994, Estonia was
the first country in Europe to introduce a flat tax system.
Estonia's economic success has been remarkable. This year,
GDP growth is close to 10% and Estonia has a budget surplus
of almost 3.5% of GDP. This success gives Estonia
undeniable credibility in promoting reform abroad; it has
become a strong advocate for democracy and freedom in the
region. Earlier this year, the Government committed to
spend $10 million per year through 2010 on priority partner
countries including Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova and
Afghanistan. Prime Minister Ansip will introduce you to
Estonians who are leading the effort to promote democracy
abroad, including Mart Laar, a former Prime Minister and
current Member of Parliament. Laar is currently an advisor
to Georgian Prime Minister Saakashvili on democratic and
market reforms. As Prime Minister (1992-94 and 1999-2000),
he was instrumental in securing passage of key market
reforms, including Estonia's flat tax and privatization of
state assets. I encourage you to thank your interlocutors
for their good work and strongly encourage them to seek out
additional ways to intensify their efforts.

Reticent Advocate
--------------


6. (C) As is the case with many EU new members, Estonia has
been reticent to press its interests in Brussels too
forcefully or criticize EU policies, except with respect to
Russia. While Estonia often supports our position on key
issues, it generally voices that support behind the scenes.
Because Estonia's cadre of experts is small, when it does
speak out, it is generally only on issues which directly
impact its national interests (i.e. Russia). Estonia needs
to take an active role on issues aside from Russia to be
seen as an objective partner within the EU. President
Ilves has stated his desire for Estonia to become a
"generator of ideas" in Europe and to increase the
influence of new member countries on common EU policy. I
recommend you encourage his efforts.

Reaching out to the Next Generation
--------------


7. (C) Estonia has arrived at a point where its high school
and university students can no longer remember what Estonia
was like under Soviet occupation. The United States policy
of non-recognition - to which older Estonians still attach
great importance - is an abstract concept for young people
here. The hardships of Soviet times are gone; Tallinn and
Tartu are modern, bustling cities; and Estonian students
can study and work in many other EU countries. We have
seen a declining trend in the number of young Estonians
seeking to study, work or travel in the United States. To
counter that trend, I have engaged the entire Embassy in an
aggressive public diplomacy campaign to reach out to young
Estonians. I personally have visited more than 75 schools
throughout Estonia and spoken to thousands of young people.
These efforts are starting to bear fruit. In 2005, more
Estonians traveled to the United States than in any
previous year. Your visit will lend great weight to these
efforts.

E-stonia
--------------


8. (C) Time Magazine recently called Estonia "one of the
most technologically advanced places on the planet."
Estonians are proud of their reputation for high-tech
innovation and e-democracy. People file their taxes
online, internet banking is the norm, and Estonians can
even pay for parking with their cell phones. In 2005, for
the first time, citizens could cast ballots electronically.
Prime Minister Ansip will give you a lively presentation on
Estonia's e-government initiative and paperless Cabinet
meetings.

Watch Out For
--------------


9. (C) Russia: Estonia's relations with Russia remain
vulnerable to reactionary impulses on both sides. For
Estonians, history weighs heavily. In the 1940s, the
Soviets deported tens of thousands of people in several
waves of deportations; many of these people did not survive
life in Siberia. Russia's refusal to acknowledge the fact
of Soviet occupation leaves a bitter taste. Key obstacles
to truly "normal" relations include discord over an un-
ratified border treaty and Russian accusations - unfounded,
we believe - of Estonian mistreatment of its Russian-
speaking minority. Estonia is also concerned about
Russia's gas monopoly in the region and its ability to
disrupt growing trade flows. However, large oil shale
reserves, which supply about 95 percent of Estonia's
electricity, make the country much less vulnerable to
Russian manipulation of energy supplies. Estonia has been
highly critical of Russia's tactics against Georgia.
President Ilves has expressed his keen personal interest in
this issue. Additionally, the Parliament passed a
resolution on October 17 condemning Russia's mistreatment of
Georgia.


10. (SBU) Visa Waiver: Both President Ilves and Prime
Minister Ansip will urge you to commit to extend the Visa
Waiver Program to Estonians. I firmly believe we should
find a way to facilitate Estonia's entry into the Program.
In a very short time, Estonia has come quite far toward
meeting the requirements of the Program. However, although
refusal rates have declined rapidly the last few years,
they have not yet averaged under 3% for two consecutive
fiscal years, as required. We are doing everything we can
to simplify the application process, including instituting
an online appointment system and minimizing applicant trips
to the Embassy. This has helped improve perceptions
considerably, but Estonians will not be satisfied until
they are treated the same as "old" EU members.

Wos
WOS