ESTONIA'S NEW PRESIDENT PART II: A MORE ASSERTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TALLINN 000964

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/23/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL EN
SUBJECT: ESTONIA'S NEW PRESIDENT PART II: A MORE ASSERTIVE
FOREIGN POLICY

REF: A. TALLINN 00941


B. TALLINN 00845

Classified By: by DCM Jeff Goldstein for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary. Newly-elected Estonian President Toomas
Hendrik Ilves has highlighted three foreign policy
priorities for his presidency: helping to improve
transatlantic relations, increasing Estonia's profile in
and contributions to the European Union (EU) and
development of a coherent and coordinated EU policy
towards Russia. It is unclear how much Ilves will be
able to deliver due to the constraints of his office, but
Ilves will definitely use the bully pulpit of the
presidency to push his ideas. End Summary.

Staunch Supporter of Good Trans-Atlantic Relations
-------------- --------------


2. (C) Ilves has strong ties to the United States. Born
to Estonian emigre parents, Ilves was raised in New
Jersey and educated in U.S. universities. After Estonian
re-independence, he served as Estonia's Ambassador to the
United States from 1993 to 1996. Unsettled by rising
anti-Americanism in Europe, Ilves has made efforts to
strengthen transatlantic ties a high priority for his
presidency. Prior to the election, Ilves consistently
and publicly supported Estonia's participation in
international peacekeeping operations. He has argued
that Estonia's participation in Iraq and Afghanistan are
important commitments in the context of Estonia's larger
global security concerns and its NATO obligations (Ref
A).


3. (C) Ilves is considered a foreign policy heavyweight
in Estonia, and he will likely take an active role in
shaping domestic debate on key issues including Iraq.
Ilves' supporters highlight the advantage of having a
president who can articulate and explain Estonian foreign
policy decisions to average Estonians. Some of his
detractors, however, think Ilves' interest in foreign
policy could marginalize Foreign Minister Urmas Paet
and/or Prime Minister Andres Ansip's role. As Lea
Kiivit, People Union's Secretary General said to us, "The
last thing Estonia needs is three foreign ministers."


4. (C) Even though Ilves has supported USG positions on
key security issues (i.e., Iraq and Afghanistan),
regional policy (assistance for Ukraine, Georgia, and
Moldova),and EU economic policy (i.e., Common Market
reforms),he has demonstrated a maverick side to his
character by not shying away from criticizing the United
States. For example, although he supports Estonia's
presence in Iraq, Ilves once publicly said that Estonia
was "sold a bill of goods" on Iraq regarding the
justification of the war when WMDs were not found. He
has publicly criticized the USG's position on the
International Criminal Court. We understand that during
internal meetings of the European Socialist Bloc within
the European Parliament he has also criticized the U.S.
position on the Kyoto Protocols and alleged human rights
abuses in Guantanamo. He has also become more vocal on
visa-waiver for Estonia. Ilves has pledged on a number
of occasions to press for visa-waiver. Olari Koppel,
Ilves' Advisor, said to us that Ilves' position is firmly
backed by the majority of Estonians. "This is an
important issue for the President," commented Koppel,
"and he will remind Americans that terrorists are not
coming out of Estonia as they do in some visa-waiver
countries."

A Good European...of Sorts
--------------


5. (U) From 2004 to 2006, Ilves was a Member of the
European Parliament (MEP) where he served as Vice-
President of the Foreign Affairs Committee. As an MEP,
Ilves was active in EU-Russian relations, EU-U.S.
relations, EU neighborhood policy (concerning Ukraine,
Belarus, Moldova, Georgia, and the Balkans),energy
security, and human rights. Ilves worked hard in
Brussels to develop his European bona fides through his
work on the Foreign Affairs Committee while also
positioning himself as one of the more well known MEPs
from the new member states.


6. (C) Ilves' transatlanticism, as well as his defense of
the United States' role in European security, has often
put him at odds with MEPs from his own European party,
the European Socialist Group. Previously, Ilves
complained to us about the "whacky leftists" in the
European Socialist party he has butted heads with --

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comparing their mindset and "knee-jerk anti-Americanism"
to former Soviet times.


7. (SBU) While in Brussels, Ilves took active part in
debates over high profile EU issues, often making allies
across the political spectrum from Euro-Federalists (to
Euro-Skeptics. Ilves argued in favor of a common EU
foreign policy, a common position on energy security, and
the adoption of the European Constitution. At the same
time, he often supported initiatives to lighten the
regulatory burden on businesses and industries in the
Common Market (i.e., the Services Directive, the
Financial Services Action Plan, and the Lisbon Agenda).


8. (SBU) Like other new members, Estonia has been
reticent to press its interests too forcefully, to take
an active position on broader EU issues or to criticize
the EU. However, Ilves wants Estonia to have a more
vocal and active presence in Brussels. Soon after he was
elected President he announced his intentions to place
Estonia "among the generators of ideas in Europe," to
speak up in EU debates on behalf of Estonia and aspirant
countries, and to help increase the influence of the EU's
new member countries in the formulation of common EU
policy.

Addressing Moscow through Brussels
--------------


9. (SBU) Ilves has made clear in public remarks and
writings that he believes Russia's western border marks a
line between contrasting civilizations and conflicting
world views. He is an advocate for stronger EU support
for democratization and market reform efforts in Ukraine,
Moldova, and Georgia, in order to draw these countries
out of Russia's orbit. Ilves has said that foreign
relations with Russia should be conducted via the EU. He
has criticized the EU's current approach to Russia as
piecemeal and incoherent and expressed concern that
Russia is effectively utilizing its traditional "divide-
and-conquer" approach to get what it wants. Ilves has
expressed his desire to work with the European Commission
and other member states to unify the EU's approach to
Russia.


11. (U) In one of his first speeches in the European
Parliament in 2004, Ilves warned the EU against
withdrawing into a "fortress Europe" by commenting on the
"yawning economic, social, legal and political gulf
between the European Union and (its) new neighbors." He
called on the EU to direct more resources towards these
countries and resist the growing "enlargement fatigue"
among the older member states. Shutting the door for
future EU enlargement, according to Ilves, would only
hurt vulnerable democratic countries. It would also
reduce the pressure on undemocratic countries like
Belarus to change. For Ilves, any retreat by the EU in
the region would constitute abandoning these countries to
Russia.


12. (C) Comment. Though Ilves has raised the bar of
expectations, it is unclear how he much he can actually
deliver due to the constitutional constraints of his
office. However, it is clear that he will use his office
to speak out often and forcefully in favor of the
policies and ideas he considers important. End Comment.
WOS