Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06TALLINN941
2006-10-16 13:01:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tallinn
Cable title:  

ESTONIA'S NEW PRESIDENT PART I: ILVES ELECTION

Tags:  PGOV PREL EN 
pdf how-to read a cable
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O 161301Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY TALLINN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9141
INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TALLINN 000941 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/16/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL EN
SUBJECT: ESTONIA'S NEW PRESIDENT PART I: ILVES ELECTION
SHAKES UP POLITICAL LANDSCAPE

REF: A. TALLINN 00887


B. TALLINN 00756

Classified By: by DCM Jeff Goldstein for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TALLINN 000941

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/16/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL EN
SUBJECT: ESTONIA'S NEW PRESIDENT PART I: ILVES ELECTION
SHAKES UP POLITICAL LANDSCAPE

REF: A. TALLINN 00887


B. TALLINN 00756

Classified By: by DCM Jeff Goldstein for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (SBU) Summary. Toomas Henrik Ilves brings international
perspective and strong foreign policy experience to the
presidency in Estonia. In contrast to his predecessor,
Ilves has made it clear that he will use the presidency as
a bully pulpit on both domestic and foreign policy issues.
While the presidential election represented the first shots
in next spring's parliamentary election campaign, it is not
yet clear what effect Ilves' election will have on the
results of those elections. This cable reports Ilves'
biography, his likely operating style, and some initial
thoughts on how his election might affect the domestic
political situation. A companion piece will consider
Ilves? role in foreign policy. End Summary.

From Exile to Diplomat
--------------


2. (U) Ilves was born in Stockholm, Sweden on December 26,
1953 to Estonian emigre, parents who had fled the Soviet
occupation of Estonia in 1944. Ilves grew up in the United
States and attended Leonia High School in New Jersey. He
received a BA and MA in psychology from Columbia University
(1976) and the University of Pennsylvania (1978). For much
of his early career, Ilves was an academic: an English
teacher at the Open Education Center (1979-1981) in New
Jersey, Director of the Vancouver Arts Center (1981-1983,
and Lecturer in Estonian literature and linguistics at
Simon Fraser University (1983-1984) in Canada.


3. (U) Ilves returned to Europe in 1984 to work for Radio
Free Europe in Germany as an analyst and researcher (1984-
1988),and eventually was promoted to Head of the Estonian
Desk (1988-1993). During this time, Ilves was a prominent
and active member of the Estonian exile community in Europe
and North America.


4. (C) In 1993, Ilves relinquished his U.S. nationality in
order to become Estonia's Ambassador to the United States,
Canada, and Mexico (1993-1996). He subsequently served
twice as Foreign Minister (1996-1998 and 1999-2002).
During his tenure, Ilves often pointed to Estonia's
avoidance of the "double no" (exclusion from being one of

the first round of candidates for EU and NATO membership)
as his finest achievement at the MFA. Unlike Latvia and
Lithuania, which focused their attention on NATO
membership, Ilves went on a fifteen country barnstorming
tour throughout Europe to gain support for EU membership.
As he often told confidents, "The road to NATO runs through
Brussels." Ultimately, Estonia was included in the EU's
first round of membership negotiations while the other
Balts were not.


5. (SBU) Ilves is considered by many within Estonia's MFA -
often internally referred to as "the house that Meri built"
- as one of their own. In contrast to Meri's tendency
toward radical reformer and institutional architect, Ilves
focused on strengthening continuity and stability within
the MFA. In one of his last speeches as Foreign Minister,
he highlighted his pride that Estonia's foreign policy had
transitioned from "breakthroughs" to "sustained foreign
policy irrespective of government changes."

A Political Animal in Estonia and Brussels
--------------


6. (U) Ilves has been a major political figure in domestic
politics since 1998. He moved from the Peasants Party (a
conservative rural party) to the People's Party (a reformed
Peasants Party) and later to the Moderates Party (which he
led). In 2002 when the coalition government collapsed (Pro
Patria, Reform, and Moderates),Ilves reconstituted and
renamed the Moderates as the Estonian Social Democratic
Party. During the last four years, Ilves has been the
Social Democrats most visible and prominent member,
although he gave up the post of party leader after his
election to the European Parliament in 2004.


7. (C) In the 2004 European elections, it is generally
recognized that the Social Democrats strong showing in
Estonia was a direct result of Ilves personal popularity.
From 2004 to 2006, Ilves was a Member of the European
Parliament (MEP) where he served as Vice-President of the
Foreign Affairs Committee. As an MEP, Ilves focused on EU-
Russian relations, EU-U.S. relations, EU neighborhood
policy (concerning Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Georgia, and
the Balkans),energy security, and human rights. In one of
his first speeches in the European Parliament in 2004,

TALLINN 00000941 002 OF 003


Ilves warned against the EU withdrawing into a "fortress
Europe" and called on the EU to direct more resources
toward its new neighbors. As a strong Atlanticist, Ilves
privately expressed to us his dissatisfaction with growing
anti-Americanism not only in Brussels but in Europe in
general (septel).

The People's Choice
--------------


8. (U) On October 9th, Ilves was sworn in as Estonia's
fourth president (Ref A). While his margin of victory in the
election was only one electoral vote, he has emerged with a
clear popular mandate. Recent polls indicate Ilves has
strong popular support across most sectors of society, with
the exception of Estonia's Russian-speaking population:

- 81 percent of ethnic Estonians
- 33 percent of non-Estonians
- 74 percent of 18-34 year olds
- 62 percent of senior citizens
- 76 percent of higher-educated voters
- 54 percent from those with just elementary and/or high
school diplomas
- 80 percent of people with an income over 6,000 EEK
($481) per month
- 59 percent of people with an income between 2,000 -
4,000 EEK ($160-$321) per month
- 71 percent of women and 64 percent of men
- 65 percent of Tallinn residents
- 72 percent of small town and rural residents

Ilves' strong support in rural areas is notable, as this is
the traditional base for both former President Arnold
Ruutel and the People's Union. Even more surprising - one
third of Ruutel supporters have indicated satisfaction with
Ilves - victory.


Political Implications of Ilves- Victory
--------------


9. (SBU) In accordance with the constitution, after the
election, Ilves relinquished his affiliation with the
Social Democratic Party. He also called for abandoning the
notion of a "pro-presidential party." Ilves' election
significantly weakened the basis of the recent political
agreement between Center Party and the People's Union. As
part of that deal, a reelected Ruutel was reportedly to
have nominated Minister of Economy Edgar Savisaar as prime
minister of a Center Party-People's Union government after
the parliamentary elections next spring. (Ref B). However,
Ilves' victory and the recent resignation of People's Party
Leader Vilju Reiljan as Minister of Environment (due to a
land scandal),has left many pundits wondering what
direction the People's Union will take. Lea Kiivit,
People's Union Secretary General, told us that the party is
in a period of "serious reflection" over its future.


10. (C) At the same time, Ilves' election has energized the
four parties that supported him (Res Publica, Pro Patria,
Reform, and Social Democrats). Ott Lumi, Res Publica
Secretary General, expressed to us his satisfaction with

SIPDIS
the four parties' cooperation in bringing about an Ilves
win. Lumi said, "We have shown that we can work together
successfully...and now we have a positive energy we can
carry into the (parliamentary) elections!" Recent polls
indicate that Center Party's popularity is slipping and
Reform is now the most popular party (with the public and
the donors) in Estonia.


11. (C) In spite of Ilves' weak support among Russian-
speakers, his victory has made some politicians optimistic
about the possibility of weakening the Center Party's
traditional lock on the Russian-speaking vote. Randel
Lants, Secretary General of the Social Democrats, told us
his party believes Ilves' election has created an
opportunity to "chip away at Center Party's hold on the
Russian vote." Lants noted that many Social Democratic
policy proposals (i.e., more funding for social programs)
resonate with the Russian-speaking minority, and
Parliamentary elections next spring could result in a
possible realignment of the Russian vote. While this is
unlikely in the short term, even a relatively small
reduction in the Russian-speaking community's support for
Center could have a decisive impact on the outcome of
Parliamentary elections next spring.

A Bully Pulpit
--------------


12. (SBU) In Estonia's parliamentary system, the presidency

TALLINN 00000941 003 OF 003


holds limited powers. However, it is clear that Ilves
plans to be more active than his predecessor. He has
frequently cited President Lennart Meri (1999-2001) as an
important role model in his professional life.
Symbolically, after his victory in the electoral college,
Ilves' first stop was Meri's grave. Ilves will likely
emulate Meri's use of the presidency as a bully pulpit,
although he has told us that, unlikely Meri, he will not
push the constitutional limits of the president's
authority. Vello Pettai, Tartu University professor of
Estonian politics, told us that Ilves has always been vocal
and opinionated - "now he will have the platform of the
presidency to get his message across." Andres Kasekamp,
Director of the Estonian Foreign Policy Institute and a
fellow Estonian emigre, who has known Ilves since his days
in the United States, described Ilves' style as "big
picture." "Unlike Meri," Kasekamp told us, "Ilves will not
have his fingers in every pot; Ilves will paint with broad
strokes and leave the detail work to others."

Personal Insights
--------------


13. (C) According to those who know Ilves personally, he is
a man who "does not like being handled." He is widely
perceived to be arrogant and aloof, but also an independent
thinker and intellectual. Even though his political
opponents have routinely labeled him as a bohemian
dilettante (which he does not seem to mind),they
grudgingly accept him as one of Estonia's foreign policy
heavyweights. Ilves routinely writes his own speeches and
articles, which often make historical, philosophical, and
literary allusions that betray his academic past and his
wide range of interests. He is well read and regularly
refers to the works of Enlightenment thinkers. In his
inaugural speech he quoted John Locke and Jean-Jacque
Rousseau. Ilves lacks a natural regional base in Estonia,
because he grew up overseas. He has compensated for this
in part through membership in various organizations,
fraternities, and associations. He has also shown an eye
for self-promotion (through his newspaper articles and
television interviews ) and self-branding (he always wears
bow ties).


14. (U) Ilves is married to Evelin Ilves with whom he has
one daughter, Kadi Keiu. He has two children - Luukas
Kristjan and Juulia Kristiine - from a previous marriage.
His son Luukas is currently a student at Stanford
University.
WOS