Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06TALLINN845
2006-09-15 08:35:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tallinn
Cable title:  

ESTONAIN-RUSSIAN RELATIONS: NO LONGER HOT BUT

Tags:  PREL PGOV RS EN 
pdf how-to read a cable
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TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9021
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TALLINN 000845 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/15/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV RS EN
SUBJECT: ESTONAIN-RUSSIAN RELATIONS: NO LONGER HOT BUT
STILL POTATOES

REF: TALLINN 00347

Classified By: DCM Jeff Goldstein for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TALLINN 000845

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/15/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV RS EN
SUBJECT: ESTONAIN-RUSSIAN RELATIONS: NO LONGER HOT BUT
STILL POTATOES

REF: TALLINN 00347

Classified By: DCM Jeff Goldstein for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (SBU) Summary. These days, progress in Estonian-
Russian relations is measured in inches. Over the last
several months, disagreements over sensitive and
controversial issues such as the border treaty have not
hindered cooperation on less hotly debated issues.
However, Estonia's relationship with Russia remains
highly vulnerable, particularly as Estonia enters a
parliamentary election campaign early next year. End
Summary.

We agree to disagree
--------------


2. (SBU) For several months now, the GOE and the GOR have
managed to keep their disagreement over the border treaty
on the back-burner and de-link it from other important
priorities (e.g., transport infrastructure,
environmental, and law enforcement cooperation). As MFA
Third Political Department Director General Tiik told us,
"It's still a potato, but it's no longer hot."
Meanwhile, the MFA has continued its "baby steps"
approach in confidence building with the Russians
(reftel). According to Tiik, the Estonians' slow and
modest efforts and increased direct contacts among
counterparts have helped the sides to deal with
contentious issues before they become too "hot".


3. (C) Although the GOR recently submitted a proposal to
open new border talks, the GOE has made clear it has no
desire to reopen the issue. On September 6 Karin Jaani,
Director General for the MFA's Second Political
Department and former Ambassador to Russia, told us, "The
proposal wasn't new, it just removed the preamble they
found offensive. With the Presidential elections taking
place now and parliamentary elections early next year, it
isn't the time to have these negotiations." Jaani
continued that while the timing is curious, there has not
been any follow up pressure or further statements from
Moscow to resume talks. Vadim Vasiliev, Russian Embassy
Political Officer, confided in us on September 5 that he
believes the GOR proposal was intended to "test the
water" and gauge the GOE's mood.

The Media takes a breather
--------------


4. (SBU) According to Andres Kasekamp, Director of the
Estonian Foreign Policy Institute, in an August 24
meeting, even the Estonian press has recently become
slightly less sensational in its coverage of Russia.
Kasekamp explained that "Russia being Russia, the
(Estonian) press not only gives it a lot of coverage but
also sensationalizes any tension or conflict." In his
opinion, Kasekamp felt that the "straight" and "dull"
reporting of Russia's new border treaty proposal,
Estonian Foreign Minister Urmas Paet's visit to Moscow on
June 30, and Russian Transport Minister Igor Levitin's
July 24 visit to Tallinn signified a positive step
forward in improving the atmospherics. Even outgoing
Russian Ambassador to Estonia, Konstantin Provalov,
forecasted improved relations in an August 29 interview
published by Molodyozh Estonii, a leading Russian-
language daily in Estonia.

Back to basics
--------------


5. (SBU) Where Estonian-Russian relations have improved
most visibly is at the technical/working level between
Estonian and Russian law enforcement agencies (e.g.,
border guards, customs, and police). Martin Paas, Senior
Customs Specialist, characterized his own cooperation and
communication with Russian counterparts as "positive,"
despite recent delays at the border (para 7). (Note: in
a meeting with Pol/Econ Chief, Enriko Aav, Director
General of the Tax and Customs Board, also highlighted
his office's good cooperation with Russia on the working
level, but noted that senior level cooperation has been
less effective due to changes of senior personnel on the
Russian side. End note.) Even in sensitive areas like
trafficking in persons (TIP),there has been more
cooperation and information sharing recently. Kristiina
Luht, Chief Specialist for the Ministry of Social
Affairs, said that a roundtable discussion with Russian
counterparts in St. Petersburg in June 2006, was the best
cooperation she has experienced with Russian authorities
to date.

TALLINN 00000845 002 OF 002



Flashpoints: present and future
--------------


6. (C) While bilateral relations have marginally
improved, GOR and GOE officials have spoken to us of two
possible issues that could rekindle recently dormant
tensions.

Border Issues.


7. (SBU) From mid-July until early-September, the
Russian-Estonian border near Narva saw a dramatic
increase in traffic delays due to changes in inspection
procedures by Russian border guards and customs agents.
The resulting backlog of trucks caused discontent among
truck drivers and businesses dependent on quick and
reliable movement of goods across the border. There was
significant press coverage of the problem with many GOE
officials and politicians complaining publicly about the
issue.


8. (C) The Russian Embassy's Vasiliev explained to us on
Sep 8 that this clampdown was the result of efforts to
combat corruption at the border. Vasiliev confided that
Moscow disapproved of the "cozy relationship the customs
and northwest border guard chiefs had with certain
businesses." The GOE officially complained to the GOR
and demanded to know when traffic will be eased. During
a discussion with the MFA's Jaani, the Russian Embassy's
Charge d'Affairs explicitly linked differences over the
border treaty with the recent delays. Jaani,however,
downplayed this conversation to us on Sep 6, noting she
believes that the Russian Embassy was caught off guard
and had not received proper instruction from Moscow. She
also told us that in her opinion the Charge had most
likely been speaking in a personal capacity. As of
September 12, both the MFA and the Customs office told us
that the backlog on the border has diminished.

Parliamentary Elections.


9. (C) There is concern within the MFA that in the run up
to next spring's parliamentary elections, nationalist
parties (Res Publica and Pro Patria in particular) will
try to inflame anti-Russia sentiment in order to
galvanize their base. September 22, the anniversary of
the "liberation" of Tallinn by the Soviet Army, presents
an early opportunity for nationalist groups to cause
trouble. When asked about what may happen on September
7, Ott Lumi, Secretary General for Res Publica, said that
officially he hoped that the day would pass without
incident. However, speaking off the record he told us
that "an incident would be extremely good for Res
Publica's campaign and they would make good use of the
publicity." Lumi said that Res Publica and Pro Patria's
campaign will be on values, i.e. breaking completely
with Estonia's Communist and Russian past.


9. (SBU) Comment. Until bigger issues, like the border
treaty, are resolved, progress in other areas of the
Estonian-Russian relationship will always be tenuous.
Nevertheless, the fact that the two sides are not
allowing their big disagreements to prevent progress in
other areas is a welcome, albeit modest, step forward.
End Comment.
GOLDSTEIN