Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06TALLINN496
2006-05-24 13:04:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Tallinn
Cable title:  

AMBASSADOR DISCUSSES IRAQ, INTEGRATION WITH

Tags:  PGOV PREL EN 
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VZCZCXYZ0001
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHTL #0496/01 1441304
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 241304Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY TALLINN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8647
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS TALLINN 000496 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

FOR EUR/NB

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL EN
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR DISCUSSES IRAQ, INTEGRATION WITH
ESTONIAN MPS


UNCLAS TALLINN 000496

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

FOR EUR/NB

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL EN
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR DISCUSSES IRAQ, INTEGRATION WITH
ESTONIAN MPS



1. (SBU) Summary. In a May 18 luncheon hosted by the
Ambassador, Parliamentary Deputy Speaker Maret
Maripuu (Reform Party) and MPs Kllo Arjakas (Center
Party) and Eiki Nestor (Social Democrats) shared
their views on the Estonian mission in Iraq,
domestic politics, and Russian minority integration
issues. On Iraq there was general consensus that if
the UN Security Council extends the multinational
force mandate, parliamentary extension of the
Estonian troop mandate would not become an issue in
the upcoming election cycle. End summary.

IRAQ
--------------


2. (SBU) Although a majority of voters continue to
express opposition to Estonian involvement in Iraq,
none of the MPs felt it would be a major political
issue in the run-up to Parliamentary elections in

2007. The Center Party's Arjakas questioned whether
the international community's democratic vision for
Iraq could really be achieved, given the historical
and cultural challenges there. But ultimately he
agreed with Maripuu and Nestor that a mandate
extension for Estonia's participation in the
multinational force would likely pass in Parliament
(though with some degree of difficulty). Extension
of the UNSCR mandate would be critical to passage of
the measure.

NO FEAR OF NEW POLITICAL PARTY
--------------


3. (SBU) Turning to domestic politics, none of the
MPs believed the recent merger of the right-wing
parties Res Publica and Pro Patria would change
Estonia's political dynamics in a meaningful way
before (or after) the upcoming 2007 parliamentary
elections. Nestor thought it unlikely the parties
would score any better combined than they would have
individually. Arjakas thought the move ultimately
would be seen as another in an unending process of
political party creation, merger, renaming and
demise that would only contribute to confusion and
apathy among voters. That the parties continue to
support different platforms and candidates in the
run-up to presidential elections only added to the
confusion, Maripuu noted, and gave the impression
that the "merger" is less-than-solid.

POLITICS, INTEGRATION AND TOLERANCE
--------------


4. (SBU) In a wide-ranging conversation on the
politics of integration, Maripuu and Nestor
acknowledged that the Center Party's adept political
maneuvering had secured itself the lion share of
Estonia's Russian-speaking vote. The MPs were
skeptical about the ability of the recently-renamed
Constitutional Party (a party of Russian speakers)
to challenge the Center Party's grip. However the
Center Party MP Arjakas did express concern about
the possibility of the Constitutional Party winning
a seat in European Parliamentary elections. If it
could gain a seat in the European Parliament, it
would use Brussels as a platform for propagandizing
misinformation to a broad European audience.


5. (U) The Ambassador stressed that while Estonia
had made real strides in integrating its Russian-
speaking minority, future integration challenges
will likely be of a different nature. With
Estonia's shrinking population and booming economy,
U.S. investors and Estonian businesspeople had
expressed concern about a growing shortage of labor.
Estonia would likely become an increasingly popular
destination for economic immigrants, and that would
bring new challenges that would be important to
address early. The Ambassador described a number of
initiatives the Embassy had undertaken to encourage
dialogue on tolerance and related issues.


6. (SBU) The Social Democrat Nestor acknowledged
that tolerance had not always been highly valued in
Estonia, something he ascribed partially to a
hangover from the Soviet period. The country's size
and relative insularity also contributed to its
challenges. Arjakas noted that given Estonia's size
a relatively small number of immigrants could have a

large impact on society. He wondered how open to
immigration the country could afford to be without
risking the loss of Estonia's cultural identity.

Comment
- - - -


7. (SBU) Given their parties' internal divisions on
Iraq, Nestor and Arjakas may have played to their
audience and underestimated the potential for the
debate over Estonia's engagement to emerge as a
political issue this fall. But we agree that
extension of the UNSCR mandate will go far in taking
the wind from the sails of those who might be
tempted to make Iraq an issue. It will also be
critical to maintaining unity on the matter inside
the governing coalition.

GOLDSTEIN