ESTONIA: MERGER OF RES PUBLICA AND PRO PATRIA

UNCLAS TALLINN 000451

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV EN
SUBJECT: ESTONIA: MERGER OF RES PUBLICA AND PRO PATRIA
UNION WILL BE COMPLETED AT THE BEGINNING OF JUNE

REF: TALLINN 322


1. (U) Summary: Estonian opposition political parties
Res Publica and Pro Patria Union have completed
preparatory work for their merger, announced in early
April (reftel). The boards of the parties have approved
the merger agreement and a working version of new
statutes, both of which will be submitted for approval
to party general assemblies on June 4. Res Publica
board member Urmas Reinsalu told us he believes
consolidation on the right will help minimize the
chances of a left-wing Center Party/People's Union
coalition seizing power in next year's parliamentary
elections. End summary.


2. (U) A survey conducted after the announced merger,
and published the week of May 8, indicates that combined
support for Res Publica and Pro Patria stands at 15
percent, equal to support expressed for the right-of-
center Reform party of Prime Minister Andrus Ansip.
According to the survey, Pro Patria was ranked third in
voter preference with 10 percent support, while Res
Publica enjoyed the support of five percent of voters.
Res Publica's ratings were up slightly from three
percent in March, while Pro Patria has held steady at
ten percent support for several months. The Center
Party remains the most popular political party in
Estonia, with 22 percent support.


3. (SBU) In an April meeting Res Publica board member
and MP Urmas Reinsalu told us the new party would
maintain a "federal" leadership structure for a planned
one-year transition. Reinsalu claimed this was partly a
result of Pro Patria's fear that Res Publica's stronger
leadership would quickly dominate the combined party.
Reinsalu added that he hoped it wouldn't be "Yugoslavia-
style federalism."


4. (SBU) Reinsalu thought the combined party could lose
some members on the fringes -- the far right of Pro
Patria who saw Res Publica as the "butchers of Lihula"
(a reference to then-PM Juhan Parts' forcible removal of
a monument to Estonia's war dead in Waffen SS uniform)
and the Russian-speaking end of Res Publica's
membership. On the other end of the spectrum, an April
meeting of Res Publica?s heavily Russian-speaking Narva
party board had been "hot," according to Reinsalu, but
ended with a vote in support of the merger. Looking
ahead he thought the combined party would be in a strong
position to place second after the Center Party in the
2007 parliamentary elections. The merger had helped
forestall a possible left-wing Center Party, People's
Union coalition, he thought, that otherwise would have
been the likely composition of the next Estonian
government.


5. (U) It is unclear who will take the reins of the
combined party, though several names have emerged in
speculation. Among them are Tartu University Rector and
presidential candidate Jaak Aaviksoo, Estonia's
Ambassador to the United States Juri Luik, and MP and
former Prime Minister Mart Laar. All have reportedly
declined the offer, with the exception of Aaviksoo who
claims not to have been approached. The Estonian daily
Postimees quotes Aaviksoo as saQng that he sees "rocks
ahead" because the cultures of the organizations are so
different, but that should the merger go forward,
"Estonian politics will only win in the long run.?

GOLDSTEIN